That the introduction of automation in manufacturing and services will leave many people without work, a long horror story of economists. Some believe that in ten years the workplace may lose almost every second Russian. But whether Russia is able to overcome the technological gap as quickly, and if so, what profession will disappear first?
Currently, the authorities of developed and developing countries set rigid policy electronic the economy that is forcing society to rethink many things based on the experience of three industrial revolutions that the world has already experienced. It is known that using a comma with the automation of work is often unemployment and the recurrence of such a global scale frightens many. While in the European Parliament reflect on the electronic rights of man, and Silicon valley is preparing for the Apocalypse and mass uprisings, the government of the Russian Federation strongly advises the regions to think about retraining staff. Low productivity – long a scourge of the Russian economy. To improve it through automation, and the General backwardness of Russia and from many countries in the West speaks in favor of the fact that the process of displacement of people by robots we will have a very dynamic character. And those in the foreseeable future, doesn’t want to be alone with unclaimed on the market specialty, you need to take this into account.
The iron hand of the market
“Leaders in automation and robotics in Russia are the banks. This is understandable – they have sufficient resources”
E-economy (i.e. an economy based on digital technologies), the term is relatively new – it was proposed by the American informatika Nicholas Negroponte in 1995. Computerization resulted in tectonic shifts in society and demanded a qualitatively new approach to the economy, laying the foundations of the sixth technological structure, the occurrence of which the world expects in the near future. And while futurists are divided into optimists and pessimists, discuss about the prospects of progress, the leadership of large companies are increasingly voiced by capitalist ideas on the replacement workers-people programmes and mechanisms.
So, at the world economic forum in Davos, the head of Sberbank German Gref said that he wants to halved the staff by 2025, and 8% will be reduced from 2017- the first on the street would be 3 thousand lawyers (which, however, is ready to host “Mail of Russia”). And it was not a local experiment, and the vanguard of the trend. In Krasnodar the planned layoff of several hundred conductors. In Perm, the staff of the local branch of nestlé came to the rally in connection with the job cuts. Office personnel of Ford Sollers in the offices of Moscow, Leningrad region and Tatarstan announced a so-called program of voluntary withdrawal (five salaries in the voluntary dismissal), after which a third of employees (1,500 people) should leave the company.
News of this kind appears more and more. A number of domestic media have published forecasts that in ten years half of Russians remain without work. Seriously discussing even technopolises: in Davos, made futurist Alex Turchin a report about the catastrophic risks of artificial intelligence. But if the “rise of the machines” is that you are not afraid, then replacing people with robots on the production looks quite realistic. On the wave of growth now sites that offer users to assess the risks of their profession in terms of its future of robotics.
Vladimir Putin visited the Central scientific research Institute of precise mechanical engineering, where he showed combat robot avatar. Robot five shots from the gun hit the target and made a circle on an ATV on autodrome some industries, these risks are particularly high. The Ministry has already announced changes in the system of assessment of working conditions, and now the threat fourth class conditions for people will be banned. Such a position a lot – for example, in chemical plants, and only on this basis can reduce up to 40 thousand workers throughout Russia. Theoretically compensate for the loss due robots, thereby improving working conditions for people, but employees of the “fourth class” and rest assured that in the process of improving they simply won’t fire. In the early NINETEENTH century with similar have used weaving machines the British, eventually organizing a revolt of the Luddites – his suppression of government forces have used more resources than the resistance to Napoleon on the Iberian Peninsula. The rebellion was extinguished, but his experience is inscribed in economic science, and history as a good instructive example: weaving manufacturing is not depopulated, and continued to develop, working conditions in it improved, but Luddites have already been executed, becoming a symbol of the struggle against progress.
Cleaning companies in stable escalate to panic today than employers often used, simply increasing the burden on the “surviving” employees without the promised robotization of their work, training and the increase in their salaries. Nevertheless, practitioners believe that the automation of production processes in the future will only strengthen the labor market.
“Today’s processes are very different from past technological revolutions. Computerization, while the proportion of unproductive labor are now not so much reduce the number of jobs how many changes the approach to the abilities and skills of the employees, generates new specialization. One closed direction opens two new, more technologically advanced. The amount of information which circulates in any company is greatly increased. This gives new possibilities for monitoring and control of the business, but at the same time requires new jobs for professionals who fill the system information and maintain its relevance,” – said the newspaper VIEW Director of software development company “Acronis” Sergei ulasen.
“She goes, all ships, all decide”
According to Alasania, leaders in automation and robotics in Russia are the banks. This is understandable – they have sufficient resources, in addition, started later than many industries, because unable immediately to implement the most advanced technology without the cost of support and upgrade the old infrastructure. The same can be said about mobile operators: the Russian service companies have not worse, and sometimes much better than the European. In General, among the foremost of automation were those who work with mass client, regardless of industry. For example, now actively developing a new channel of communication with customers – chatbot messengers. Another driver for the development – the development of robotic vehicles.
The threat of unemployment smoothes, in particular, that in the learning process of the robot, you need to enter a lot of information and this information is constantly updated. Such requires constant human intervention, and the previous PC operator is an operator workstation to update the “knowledge base” mechanism, which first need to understand the subject of its activities, rather than programming itself.
“Of course, in the era of e-economy of some of the specialty will become less relevant or even withdraw from the market, but at the same time increase the need for other skills. Thus, the implementation by banks of robotic terminal, where you can request the assistance of the operator from a remote office, on the one hand, reduces the number of employees in a traditional office, on the other – have increased the number of jobs for call-center operators. But, unfortunately, innovation can only be afforded by large companies, because it requires large investments”, – concluded the expert.
With the fact that the massive replacement of people with robots in production in the near future should not wait, agree, and Deputy head of the Moscow division of the company-integrator “Integro” Dmitry Kim. “Despite the fact that Russia already has a fully robotic warehouses, this is a very expensive technology that requires large investments, pay for themselves only at sites with high turnover. Often used patchwork automation, where the process is controlled by the people. Yes, there are warehouses, where even with no light, the technique itself goes, all ships, all decide. Technology is evolving in this direction, this is the future, but right now it is very expensive and is not too important for Russia”, – he said the newspaper VIEW.
And yet, emphasizes Kim, those whose work is inefficient, cyclical and simple, is to think about their future and improve their qualifications now. The situation on the current labor market is that very few people have the background data sufficient for the new conditions. Applicants need to be more educated and highly skilled. “For example, electronic circulation of documents will soon be deprived of many accountants of their homes, the whole process of tax reporting now takes hours instead of days as before. On the same location after automation 20-30% reduced operating staff. In the medium term will create jobs where needed a big responsibility, creativity, skills and thinking. Ideally, employers invested in employee training, certifications that employees are required to work after receiving. Prestigious brands in the framework of the implementation of equipment typically offer partners training programs, organize seminars with obtaining benefits and discounts on the studied line of products,” he added.
According to Kim, robots will replace primarily those whose activity does not require improvisation, creativity, intuitive communication. “The process has already started, it’s like the new gadgets. Urbanization, growing city. People came to the conclusion that without this investment in automation niche business is too narrow. Those who perform purely mechanical work, do will be replaced by robots, it’s a matter of time. Automation is intended to increase efficiency, and ineffective employees are not thinking about training, be at risk. And in offices it is easier to do than in production, since many works can be translated into SOFTWARE, but it is not as expensive as specialized intelligent machine. Questionnaires, telephone calls according to the answers “Yes” and “no”, some of the functions of the Secretary. The same lawyers who use their skills only for Contracting. The machine is able to collect data, consolidate them, it can not only change the algorithm of its decision”, – the expert emphasizes.
In the cosmonaut training Center (TSPK). Yuri Gagarin unveiled a new anthropomorphic system “Astronavt”, which is a humanoid robot that can recognize emotions and to provide information and psychological support kosmonavtami also noted the high growth of automation in agriculture: large mesoprosodes vengeance introducing new technologies, for example in the Vladimir region. Actively developing in this direction in Krasnodar and Yekaterinburg, but is not in a hurry skfo. Perhaps residents of the North Caucasus held tradition of the family business, but much more significant factor is the investment unattractiveness of the region.
“Idlers dispersed is a plus”
The process of ciprocinal economy requires detailed control from the state, emphasizes on its part, the head of the legal Department of the Russian National center of support and development of Roman Evdokimov. “Here and now massive long-term unemployment for entire areas of the domestic economy, of course, a Chimera. Yes, they will leave items such as sysadmin, “enikey” and just “handy”, but good professionals with expertise in their field will be a long time in demand 10 years for sure. Avtomatiziruete first and foremost, business processes, accelerated data processing, reduces the cost of infrastructure. Therefore, growing and evolving data centers, cloud services, all kinds of auto designers of the business processes. And the fact that the idlers dispersed is undoubtedly a plus,” he told the newspaper VIEW.
“While there is a feeling that many people using the terms “digital economy”, don’t understand or distort its meaning, says Evdokimov. – Need to carefully design the automation, not to be left then with unstable monster. Yes, there are production, employing only designers, and robots, which robots serve. This is mainly the processing and furniture factory, for example. But this is still very rare, mainly automatiseret a single process or group of processes: procurement, coordination, workflow, interaction with supervisors. Or something fragmentary that allows you to replace, for example, multiple couriers”.
Fundamentally the good news is that when building a digital economy in Russia is quite possible to rely on domestic developments. “There are decent products, another thing is that the implementation of some major projects using proven technologies, including imported, it is necessary to choose the best, not just cheap” – said the expert.
In General, the domestic IT-sector is experiencing not the best times. According to Evdokimov, in recent years, the budgets for IT everywhere, almost halved. “At the same time increased the gap in salaries among IT professionals: experts are expensive, and ordinary working hands, as a rule, outsourcing from the region, they save. The savings on the “bottom floor” and spread the project across the country often lead to lack of synchronization on the stages of implementation and testing, poor feedback with support and the like. However, despite the fact that the pace of development has slightly decreased, it became more long-term projects, people began to think about the real results. Customers for their sometimes modest but hard-won budgets sometimes require almost impossible, – he admitted. On the other hand, the higher import now import substitution is constrained by the: foreign producers have to offer competitive prices. Of the stimulus favor the development of the industry also are exemption on contributions to the social insurance Fund for IT companies, non-taxable VAT license, and priority domestic software”.
Yet in terms of employment of intelligent machines (i.e., robots in the full sense of the word) Russia lags behind the world market in 70 times beginning in 2016 10,000 workers in the country had only one industrial robot. For comparison, in South Korea, the leader of the automation, this figure 531, in Germany – 301, US – 176, in rapidly aging Serbia – 110 in the UK – 71, and in China – 49. From here two conclusions emerge. First – if you are lagging behind so much that catching up will have to be quick, hence the statement about the necessity of mass robotization of the authorities and leading experts and early warning the population about the training. The second – in Russia is that it is mainly about strategic planning new coordinate system, including adapted education system and social safety net for citizens.
A large part of the population – for example, older people can be vulnerable in tough new conditions that require constant training and retraining. This is a new evolutionary turn in which to fit effectively, but without pain. On behalf of the President of Russia Vladimir Putin on 1 June 2017, the government should develop and approve an appropriate program which specifies the vector of development of health, education, science and many other spheres of society the need for increasing financial and computer literacy. For its part, the Central monitoring technological modernization and technological development of the onf took the trouble to analyze statistical data in order to derive indicators of the quality of life of citizens who need the Cabinet in the development of the program.