The DPRK conducted another test launch of its own ballistic missiles that in Tokyo, Seoul and Washington are regarded as a provocation. Experts point out that Pyongyang does not intend to abandon his missile program, is more promising than many thought, and now I watch the reaction of people at the same time pushing US to compromise.
On Sunday, North Korea’s military fired a ballistic missile towards the sea of Japan. Indicates that the launch took place at 07.55 (01.55 GMT) and that the rocket launched from the Baikonur’s Do, she flew around 500 km, RIA “Novosti”. Tokyo and the United States confirmed the launch.
“Some American experts consider intercepting North Korean missiles with missile defense and even pre-emptive destruction of the launch complex with a pre-installed rocket”
First this was reported by the Committee of chiefs of staffs of South Korea. According to them, the missile flew about 500 km and fell into the sea of Japan. In the United States confirmed this information. “Launch of a ballistic missile medium-range occurred near the Northwest city Koson”, – told TASS the representative of the Strategic command of the Armed forces of the United States. He also added that produced North Korea’s launch was not a threat to North America.
Recall that in January, a North Korean diplomat Tae Yong Ho, who fled in 2016 to South Korea from the UK, said that amid “the political transition”, in particular elections in the United States and the Republic of Korea, North Korea has set a goal to complete the development of ICBMs, “able to strike at U.S.” and suitable nuclear warheads by the end of 2017 – beginning of 2018.
At the same time, Pyongyang made no secret of their plans to build such weapons. In his new year address to the nation, North Korean leader Kim Jong-UN has openly declared that his country was in the final stages of the creation of Intercontinental ballistic missiles, RIA “Novosti” with reference to “Yonhap”. There is evidence that North Korea is developing a missile KN-08 on mobile launchers with a range of more than 13 thousand kilometers.
Japan reacted to the North Korean test. The Secretary General of the Cabinet of Japan of Yoshihide Suga arrived at the Prime Minister’s office. He Shinzo Abe is now in the US, where he held talks with U.S. President Donald trump playing Golf. From North America, he was ordered to prepare for any situation. The official Tokyo called the launch a provocation against the background of the meeting of the leaders of the United States and Japan.
At the same time, the US stated that, “most likely, it was not the Intercontinental missile”. And the source of “Kyodo” in the South Korean military speculated that North Korea wanted “to test the reaction after the establishment of the regime trump”.
The white house also said that the US expected provocation to the DPRK and are now going to “put pressure” on China, which, according to them, should exert influence on Pyongyang. In response to North Korea’s actions, the United States intends “to weigh the full range of possibilities,” including sanctions and the expansion of military capabilities, Reuters reports.
Recall that in late January a similar missile tests conducted by Iran. Then the American channel Fox News, citing a Pentagon spokesman said: January 29, on the ground in 225 km East of Tehran was carried out to test launch medium-range missiles. The rocket flew about 600 km.
Washington regarded these reports as evidence that Iran had violated resolution 2231 of the UN security Council. The document adopted at the conclusion of the nuclear deal and entered into force in 2015, requires Iran for 8 years not to test missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Note that the nuclear deal itself (encased in 2015 Tehran and the six countries) does not provide for a ban on the testing of Iran’s ballistic missiles.
Both Iranian and North Korean missile tests were the first events of this kind during the presidency of Donald trump, and Tehran made a start of its own missiles shortly after his inauguration.
“Pyongyang can do it”
The head of the Center for Korean studies Institute of Far Eastern studies, Alexander Jebin said the newspaper VIEW that the DPRK believe the ban of the UN security Council for a ballistic missile unjust manifestation of double standards, as all States in the region have their own ballistic missiles and launch them. As for the satellites, in this respect, Pyongyang rightly appeals to the international Treaty on use of outer space for peaceful purposes. “North Korea joined the Treaty as well as a number of other conventions governing the activities of States in the exploration of outer space. In Pyongyang believe that, because these documents are generic and open to participation by all States, the UN security Council resolution prohibiting North Korea launch satellites, are discriminatory and inconsistent with international law. They can understand, because no other country such a ban is imposed”, – said the orientalist.
“The UN turn a blind eye to much more frequent similar launches by other States, e.g. India and Pakistan. And two yet unrecognized, but de facto nuclear powers, which for the recognition of Western, including American, the press in recent years appeared several times on the brink of a major war over bloody incidents on the Indian-Pakistani border”, he added.
Pyongyang specifically emphasizes that conducts missile tests in self-defense in the face of continuing nuclear threats from the United States.
According to Zhebin, while there is no evidence that successful start-up signals a qualitative breakthrough in North Korean missile program, but it’s more serious action. “This is, first, announced, Kim Jong-UN, last year the launch of a geostationary satellite and, secondly, the mention of the North Korean leader in his new year’s speech on the final stage of preparation for the test of an Intercontinental ballistic missile. These two events, especially the second, can cause acute reaction of the USA and their allies,” he said, adding that some U.S. experts consider intercepting North Korean missiles with missile defense and even pre-emptive destruction of the launch complex with a pre-installed rocket.
However, there are U.S. experts who, according to Zhebin, assessing the situation more realistically. “As a compromise, in particular, it was proposed to allow the DPRK to use rockets for launching satellites into orbit, instead of receiving the agreement of the North Koreans to refuse tests of ICBMs”, he said.
With regard to the assessment of the current start-up as a kind of message to the new American President, the orientalist said that actually trump has not yet outlined its Korean policy, and the recent visit of U.S. defense Secretary in South Korea only confirmed the old obligations of the United States.
At the same time, says Jebin, in Pyongyang hope that trump, at least in the first stage, try to look for a compromise regarding the Korean missile issue. “And these tests, in addition to performing the technical tasks, are a kind of warning that it is not necessary to bring the situation to the fact that North Korea just test its Intercontinental missile, not looking at the possible reaction of the United States or the UN security Council”, – the orientalist.
Speaking about the possibility of the DPRK in establishing their own Intercontinental missiles, Jebin said that many were skeptical about North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, saying that Pyongyang is not enough resources for their successful implementation. However, at the moment there have been five nuclear tests and launch of two satellites. “The failed test cases there are countries which are developing their own ballistic missiles for a long time. Now we are not talking about whether North Korea’s own Intercontinental ballistic missile or not, and that when she would do it. Most experts believe that Pyongyang can do it,” he said.