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Friday, March 23, 2018

Kiev chooses from several variants of refusal of the Minsk agreements

Today it is already obvious that the Ukrainian authorities do not fulfill the Minsk agreement in the form in which they were made, and are considering several options cancel them. Among them are those that somehow reinforce the status quo, and those that threaten to tragic consequences. What can you expect from Kiev Donbass in the foreseeable future?

Launched on February 7 session of the Verkhovna Rada will have to make some decisions regarding the settlement of the conflict in the South-East of the country. In any case, the deputies plainly told. In this case, most likely, the position of the Ukrainian side will be far from the prior consensus, which was installed between Moscow and Washington, even under Barack Obama, (German Chancellor Angela Merkel became the “peacemaker” after consultation with US).

“By themselves, the Minsk agreements for Ukraine is quite advantageous as it involves the restoration of territorial integrity, the price is quite moderate concessions”

In Russia it is considered that the Kiev authorities went to the peace agreement known as the Minsk-2, due to the defeats at the front. But this is not true.

Yes, the defeat was, but it was also clear that the fighting has acquired a local character. Despite all the successes, the militia did not even come close to the borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions, the immediate threat to Kiev would never imagine was even for him something best civil war could translate into a format of inter-state conflict with a particular front line.

The fact that Russia refused the military operation across the border line first and took the initiative of peace agreements, agreeing to act as their guarantor, has led Kiev to the conclusion that Russia could not bring the case to the end that the Kremlin fears the reaction of the international community that the sanctions are working, and the military power to conquer Ukraine, Moscow simply does not. In such conditions it is possible to continue the war and win the same victory, but it is not clear, at the cost of some losses. And you can emulate the negotiations with the support of Western partners, to train the army take on military contracts (this is important) and wait for the moment when Russia surrenders under the pressure of sanctions – then the Donbass will be possible to return not fulfilling the requirements of Minsk.

Now even Kiev it is clear that these calculations were illusory and were based on an inadequate understanding of the capabilities and state of Russia. President Petro Poroshenko indirectly admitted it in October 2015, taking the initiative to establish the Centre for the study of Russia. But the fundamental step was taken, and now Kiev is the question of how to implement the Minsk agreement so that they do not perform?

Here, it is necessary to emphasize that by themselves, the Minsk agreements for Ukraine is quite advantageous as it involves the restoration of territorial integrity, the price is quite moderate concessions (for example, in the text of the agreements do not appear the names “LC” and “DNR” – they are “invalid operation”).

However, Kiev does not want to negotiate with the leaders of the DNI and LC, and in General with the population of Donbass. In fact, without considering this time most of the requirements of Minsk was made by the Ukrainian side (except of constitutional amendments that rested not in the “special status”, as is commonly believed, and the attempt by the President to subjugate regional elites).

At the moment President Poroshenko is preparing several combinations that would allow him to fulfill the Minsk agreements.

Combination 1 – a to change the agenda. February 1, Ukraine presides in the UN Security Council. Now in Kiev discussed the possibility of changing the entire agenda, after retiring from the interpretation of the conflict in the South-East traditional Ukrainian propaganda notion of “Russian aggression”. Formal grounds to rely on the success of such an operation Kiev has, although they do not relate as much of Donbass as the Crimea.

The combination of the 2 – unhealthy Happy. Now Parliament is really unhealthy. For example, on 8 February, the speaker Andriy Parubiy closed the meeting, after ascertaining that in a hall there is no need for decision-making 226 members of Parliament (even though the norm of personal voting of MPs in the current convocation is not performed). Thus, you can always explain to our partners that the laws make impossible – MPs skip.

There are more serious moment in the Parliament virtually absent of the “coalition of the majority.” Such a coalition must in accordance with the Constitution. If not, the President has the right to dissolve the Rada. Has – but is not required. Now about the crisis in the coalition, says nobody – not even Yulia Tymoshenko, who insists on the resignation of the government and new elections. Most likely, this is exact – if the deputies still twisting his hands, taken under the pressure of the solution may be removed by lifting statements about withdrawal from the coalition and to prove in court polnomochnost of Parliament.

Combination 3 – find a comfortable negotiating partner. The former oligarch and former head of the Donetsk military and civil administration Serhiy Taruta proposed to restore the powers of local councils elected in 2010. Thus, in his opinion, the elections in the Donbass can not yet hold. However, there is a suspicion that restoring these boards is more difficult than to hold new elections – only a few MPs will be able to afford to return to work. At the same time, it is a step in the direction of the proposals of Viktor Medvedchuk – to appoint heads of regional administrations, which would be equally acceptable for Kiev and the leaders of DNR/LNR.

Position of the parliamentary radical opposition (“Batkivshchyna” Yulia Tymoshenko, the Radical party of Oleh Lyashko and “Self-help” Lviv mayor Andriy Sadovy) is reduced by and large to two points.

The first is to declare martial law in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions (this is possible according to the Ukrainian law on the legal regime of martial law), which can be considered a “soft option” of declaring war Russia. If you have a real chance to change the agenda at the UN, this idea of the marginal can become official and vote in the Parliament.

Second – to adopt a law on occupied territories, which prevented trade with DNR/LNR through the line of demarcation. On this issue between the government and the opposition there is a conflict that has already moved in the power phase – the opposition organized the blocking of railway from zone “ATO” (who they block, it is not clear, because the coal is at Ukrainian power plants), and the power of them criticized for it and even broke up blocker when guarding their inviolable deputies left the session.

The other factions are Happy (including the Opposition bloc), its position on this issue expressed – waiting for the influential external players will take a decision.

You need to understand that the Minsk agreements were written under the assumption that, by implementing them, the Kiev regime will change in such a way that will be acceptable to the population of Donbass (for example Spain and Portugal). In fact, this opinion persists even now, at the same time, it is clear that Kiev cannot and does not want to move in the direction of democratization. And even the formal execution of the agreements if they lead to the degeneration of the regime, at the side of his radicalization that would have for Donbass tragic consequences.


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