The output of the hot phase of the military crisis in the Donbass is not yet visible. In Avdeevka entered Ukrainian tanks, one possible purpose of which is surrounded by Yasinovataya. In response, the VSN can go to the surroundings of the Town, and there is information that the decision on this subject adopted. But the main and immediate purpose of Kiev is the involvement in the conflict Russia.
Despite political attempts to stop the clashes, on Thursday in a substantial part of the front continued active artillery duels. The most difficult situation still remains in the vicinity of the Town, but under fire of the Ukrainian artillery also fall of the Kiev district of Donetsk (North), Yasinovataya and Makeevka.
“Shells at all is enough, and only a set of coincidences can stop further escalation of hostilities”
The night before the attempt to fire Donetsk from positions in Avdeevka and North of it again encountered tough artillery response from the Armed forces of Novorossiya (VSN), after which the Ukrainian artillery was silent all night, but “woke up” with the dawn. It showed that the BCH will no longer tolerate the shelling by the Armed forces of Ukraine (APU), and the operations to suppress the firing points of the enemy, as it was Sunday, will continue. At the same time, it became obvious that the Ukrainian side is ready to sacrifice men and equipment, rascala the situation around Avdeevka to the crisis.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the APU introduced the plant to the tank companies gain and positioned armored vehicles directly into residential areas with the connivance of the OSCE mission.
It is worth emphasizing that the results of weeks of fighting high-intensity real changes on the front line there. However, the troops advanced extremely exhausted, and the previously appointed positions of the Ukrainian side, as the position of the BCH in some areas industrial zones are destroyed or damaged. To the front moved the reserves of the second line. This is especially noticeable on the APU, which on several key fronts pushed forward the large tank units – up to two companies of the tank the gain in the direction of Mariupol and in the area of Avdeevka and even more. There is also active movement of reserves along the first line Volnovakha direction and to the West of Donetsk, Marinka.
In such circumstances, in the last couple of days on both sides was tempted to conduct a limited offensive in the area Avdeevka – Yasinovataya. APU set an objective exit via a Steep Beam, holiday villages and several woods to the road Yasinovataya – Makeevka that can endanger a partial environment Yasinovataya. For this purpose, apparently, in the residential development of the Town and went tank companies.
While this development constrains only the active work of artillery from both sides. But, according to some data, commander of the 72nd brigade APU Colonel Sokolov has already received the order to organize offensive operations West of Yasinovataya.
On the other hand, if the APU will attempt to drive a wedge between Donetsk and Yasinovataya in this way, the VSN can be ordered to conduct counter-offensives to encircle the Town. Now the focus of the fighting moved to the East and South-East of it in country development and to Kruta Balka, and this sector of the front in operational terms is quite broad and can go in the North-East to Verhnetoretskogo.
In this case, Avdeevka is surrounded to the East at the depth of the village (it stretches the “pipe” from North to South). As a result, the situation with Debaltsevo can be repeated almost literally. While the Ukrainian side initiated a partial evacuation of the population (or what they give for the evacuation) will untie the hands of BCH, because the location of the Ukrainian armored vehicles directly on the streets of the Town will inevitably lead to the destruction of the city debaltseve in the same scenario. And there is every reason to believe that the fundamental decision to carry out such an operation has been made, but will only be made in the case if in the next few day, the APU will attempt to attack Yasinovataya.
In fact, we can go on the offensive opposing flanks. APU will come via a branch line to the town of Mineral, cutting Yasinovataya from the West, and BCH through a Steep Beam, the industrial zone and the steppe to Verhnetoretskogo, avoiding the plant from the East. The advantage here will be on the side of the BCH not only because of the landscape, but from a purely tactical reasons. Overheated 72nd and 58th brigade of the APU in need of rest and reinforcements, and two or three companies of tanks, it is hardly possible to calculate a sufficient reserve, if you remember the unprecedented activity of heavy artillery and RZSO.
True, not the fact that the area of Avdeevka will be the only place to APU attempts to organize a local attack. Dangerous situation Volnovakha direction is opposite of Dokuchaevsk, where last week the Ukrainians only built up forces and imitated the activity, but before the actual fighting high-intensity deal is not reached. To give respite depleted brigades under the plant can as a way to divert attention to a completely opposite flank. This contributes to the fighting in Marinka and Elenovka, who are forced to escape of the reserves of the Donetsk housing BCH.
Strange story with a Ukrainian transport plane, fly around the Russian drilling rigs are also extremely revealing. Kiev artificially “pushing” the scope of the conflict by all means pulling it directly to Russia. The output is not “the civil war in the Donbass”, “Ukrainian-Russian war”, that is what Kiev is trying to create in the last two weeks. And it is feared that the organization attempts to break – even at Yasinovataya, though Dokuchaevsk – will pursue not so much a limited military objective, strategic how – to involve in fighting Russian troops, or something that Kiev would then be for them to give.
Despite the continuation of negotiations in the working groups in Minsk, there are no chances that the intensity of the fighting in the Donbass will subside. Rare stop artillery shooting was due only to suppression of the Ukrainian firing positions from the BCH and technical requirement to relocate after that. Typically, such a pause is between 6 and 12 hours in different parts of the front. Shells all have enough, and only a set of coincidences can stop further escalation of hostilities.