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Monday, November 20, 2017

Poland in vain dreams of a nuclear bomb


Both funny and creepy statements about the transformation of his country into a nuclear power are usually voiced by Ukrainian politicians, but now such speech and sound in Warsaw. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, known for his radical rejection of Russia, expressed a desire to become part of the “American system of nuclear defense.” But what does this mean?

The leader of the ruling Polish party “law and justice” Jaroslaw Kaczynski in the last election gave way to young party members – the President of the country was 43-year-old Andrzej Duda, the Prime Minister, 52-year-old Beata Szydlo. Himself a twin brother who died tragically in a plane crash near Smolensk of President Lech Kaczynski chose for himself the role of “Patriarch”, despite his not so serious by today’s political standards of the age. He is now 67 years – less than Donald Trump.

“Poland is still ready to be the most important, the best and most selfless conduit of US interests in Europe”

Being in the role of “Patriarch”, but rather “gray cardinal” of Polish politics, Jaroslaw Kaczynski rarely speaks with policy statements, preferring to act behind the scenes methods. But sometimes makes exceptions. Almost in succession he gave two interviews: the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and the Polish Gazeta Polska. And in both speeches touched on the subject of nuclear weapons. In particular, it is proposed to create a “European” nuclear bomb, which “would be able to contain Russia,” and suggested the inclusion of Poland “in the American system of nuclear defense.”

Both statements are reminiscent of statements by defense Minister Anthony of Makarevicha, which many poles is seen as a person, to put it mildly, inadequate. But a more influential man than Kaczynski, the ruling party there, so his ideas deserve full consideration.

As for the atomic bomb for the European Union, it is the EU already has appeared for a long time – long before this unfinished Confederation appeared on the world map. And France, and has not yet left the EU, Britain are members of the “nuclear club” (1960 and 1952 respectively). Germany, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands own nuclear weapons do not possess, but in these countries there are U.S. military bases that host elements of the us nuclear triad.

Therefore, translated from the political language into a practical proposal Kaczynski to create a “European Union” nuclear bomb looks like “Warsaw also wants to keep his finger on the nuclear button”.

According to official data, us nuclear weapons in Poland no. But the very willingness to accept on its territory any component of the U.S. nuclear triad from Poland (and Baltic States) causes understandable apprehension and discontent of Russia.

Since the likelihood of coming to power in France, marine Le Pen, with its promises to leave the European Union remains, but Britain had already begun an irreversible path away from Brussels, the concern kaczyński, the EU lacks its own nuclear bomb is understandable. But it is unlikely that Donald trump or any other President of the United States will allow Germany to become the owner of the national, not American nuclear weapons. Not to mention Poland.

What Kaczynski had in mind in speaking about the “American system of nuclear defense,” on the contrary, it is difficult to understand. If he spoke ABOUT the elements of the American system already placed in Poland. It is definitely a bold move by the poles: if, God forbid, the situation in the world comes to nuclear war, missile defense facilities and surrounding areas will inevitably be affected by the blow.

If he was referring to the deployment of us nuclear weapons in Poland, we return to where we started. In theory, the States can do that, but such a step close to the analog of the Cuban missile crisis. However, modern long-range missiles capable of inflicting much more serious damage than the formally forbidden nuclear weapons of short and medium range, so the placement of American nuclear weapons in Poland, the Russian-American nuclear parity is not broken. Is it that you have to put in not only in Kaliningrad, “Iskander”, but something more serious.

Thus, nothing new Kaczynski Americans can offer (and here tempted to recall the obvious metaphor of the former foreign Minister of Poland Radoslaw Sikorski). But it is extremely important to declare the new American administration that Poland is still ready to be the most important, the best and most selfless conduit of US interests in Europe.

In fact, another statement of the head of the peace on willingness to increase spending on defense to 3% of GDP – personal communication to Donald Trump, repeatedly Express dissatisfaction is too low, in his opinion, the spending of NATO allies on defense.

What Kaczynski says (but this is evident from his words, from the statements of the other leaders of Eastern European countries, who are accustomed to monetizing its geographic location), it’s about fear. They fear, in General, not Russia – all the same people who managed to achieve such high positions in politics, must understand that unprovoked aggression on the part of our country should not wait. They are afraid that the American preference will cease, that the United States finally to their internal Affairs. They will have a dialogue with Russia, based on the principle of equality of the parties, and not depicting a minor bully, who knows that behind him is a bully with a club.

So Kaczynski and his counterparts from other countries, accustomed to do business on Russophobia, of course, dream of a nuclear bomb. But their chances to obtain her are minimum – superpower interested in the fact that the most destructive weapon created by human civilization, it was in the hands of established countries with predictable policy, not the fringe-revenge-seekers.

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