The election campaign in Germany is not yet formally begun, but in fact it is already in full swing. What happened this week to change the leadership of one of the two ruling parties has led to the fact that the chances of Merkel to remain Chancellor after the September elections have become even less. Polls show Germans are tired and want a new Chancellor. Martin Schulz – the man from Europe.
Public opinion polls have recorded a sharp change in the preferences of voters. They were provoked by the nomination of a Chancellor a new leader of the SPD, the social Democrats said that the elections on 24 September their lead, Martin Schulz, the former until recently the head of the European Parliament. Soon he will lead the party, the current SPD Chairman Sigmar Gabriel himself said about it.
“Martin Schulz is that there is a good chance to become the next German Chancellor”
Gabriel, who held the post of Vice-Chancellor and Minister of economy moved to the post of foreign Minister, a liberated Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Which is already this Sunday, February 12, becomes President of Germany – that is the highest, but it is absolutely ceremonial post in the country. But the real fight for the post of the head of the German government as Martin Schulz – his social Democrats put forward as their candidate for Chancellor. And not lost.
As recent surveys, over Schultz as the Chancellor would have voted 50 percent of Germans, while over Angela Merkel only 34. This, of course, the real sensation which cannot be changed even by the fact that in Germany there is no direct election of the Chancellor. On 24 September the Germans will vote for the party – and who gets the most votes, and form a new government. Now the rules of Grand coalition, which United the CDU-CSU and the SPD – but the two sides have nominated their candidates.
A conditional right is Merkel, the conventional “left” Schultz. Whether there will be after the election the coalition or not, nobody knows – it will depend on the results of the vote. And until recently, most observers believed that with all the problems Merkel, the CDU-CSU in any case will score more votes and, hence, that their candidate will be, i.e. will remain Chancellor. But with the arrival of Schultz, the situation is beginning to change rapidly.
Already, the DeutschlandTrend poll conducted by broadcaster ARD, gives a new picture. Schultz is almost the same with Merkel’s popularity – to see him in the post of Chancellor want more voters. And most importantly, the rating of the SPD went up sharply. With 21 per cent it rose to 29 – and the support of the CDU-CSU fell from 37 to 34. Yes, there is the effect of “the euphoria of a new person” but the trend is still visible. Such a small gap to 4 points, between the two main political parties of Germany had almost five years – that is, the social Democrats almost always hopelessly behind. Now, with the arrival of Schultz, they have a real chance to change the situation – and time for it. Before the elections more than 7 months.
While the SPD does not need to overtake the CDU, the CSU, and it is impossible – it is enough for them to finish by a small margin. Such as now, 3-4 percent. Then Schulz is almost certain to become Chancellor. Why?
Because there are two main options for the future of the ruling coalition. As no single party gets 50-percent, you will need to negotiate.
You can save the current coalition – the Christian Democrats together with social Democrats. But on new conditions, such as in 2013, when the SPD gained 11 percent less CDU-CSU – if now Schultz will provide his party is not strong backlog from her party, the social Democrats will be able to dictate the rules. And there is no doubt that the main ones will be receiving the chair of Chancellor for Schultz. Whether the CDU to refuse this assignment, to defend the place to Merkel? No – they just have no room for maneuver.
The Christian Democrats will not work to create a different coalition – that is, to unite with someone else, except social Democrats. No, technically they can come to the aid of the free Democrats of FDP, but the small liberal party still have to break back into the Bundestag, which is quite problematic. And in the case of entering the Parliament their votes will not be enough for the formation of the parliamentary majority. Will need someone else. Theoretically, an ally can become “green” – their 10 percent will greatly help. But “green” is not going to weakening Merkel – they prefer gaining strength and electoral closer to Schultz.
That is, except for the SPD blocked the CDU-CSU is not with anyone – especially on the right her for the first time in the history of Germany will support the real right-wing party “Alternative for Germany”. The skeptics do not just take place in the Bundestag, they will become the third party in the country – the only question is how many votes ranging from 10 percent to 20 percent they get. But to join with them in a coalition, none of the “respectable” parties cannot and will not be – as, it is a dangerous radical and not extremist.
So the CDU-CSU will have to sacrifice Merkel to stay in power – in the party (and especially its Bavarian “sister”) will do, by the way, with a large, although not advertised, relief. For 15 years the party leadership from Merkel and tired themselves Christian Democrats – especially in the last couple of years the migration policy of the Chancellor caused strong resentment among the party members.
But even if to imagine that Merkel did not want to leave, and in the CDU will not be able to cope with its ambitions, the SPD remains the fallback option – the formation of another coalition. “Red-red-green” as it is called in Germany – that is, the Union of the SPD, Left and Green. And this coalition will again be headed by Martin Schulz.
So this 61-year-old policy is that there is a good chance to become the next German Chancellor. It clearly makes a bet and part of the German elites, and the Atlantic community, and the supranational elite, for which it is critical that Germany did not go the wrong way trump. It is clear that now in Germany there are no preconditions for the conditional victory of the “nationalists” and “isolationists” – but even 20 percent “Alternatives” is a lot for a country where all of the forces honed political correctness.
Merkel is already becoming a burden – not only for their own party, but also for Atlantic elites in General – it’s time to change it to a fresh fighter. Schultz belongs to an entirely “European” Germans – his political career is connected with the European Parliament, which he held for 22 years. He is more eurooptimists and Atlanticist than anyone – and in the context of the new geopolitical reality will butt heads with trump and Putin.
Well, that is to pretend that butting – in reality the German elite not yet understand how to combine its European leadership with the growth of populyarnosti of eurosceptics in Germany and throughout Europe, the Atlantic solidarity with antilockin President of the United States, sanctions against Russia with the desire to develop her trade.
However, to become Chancellor of the ex-footballer, ex-alcoholic, not graduated, yet to maintain its current popularity until after the election – the last election in the West show so many unexpected turns that can not renounce from.
And something tells us that Concerto Schultz, even if it happens, won’t be long.