Again in Donetsk there are fights, again shelling, again, people are dying. And for the umpteenth time a lot of Russian people are wondering why Russia can not by force to stop this madness? To strike at Mat, to defeat them – to conduct a peace enforcement type of South Ossetia in 2008. Where is the red line that the Kremlin, though not saying it out loud, drew before the Ukrainian army? And whether she did?
The worsening situation in the Donbass again raises a wave of indignation in Russian society. And outraged not only by the actions of Kiev – but “weak, inadequate” response of Moscow.
“Russia can fight with Ukraine – because it will be civil war”
How is it that in Syria we’re fighting against terrorists and that the war came to the territory of Russia and to our borders, and in the Donbass quietly observing how the Russian people are dying? This is the “damned” in Russian society occurs whenever there is an exacerbation on the “East Ukraine”.
Yes, formally it is Ukraine, but will soon be three years since the death of the pre-Maidan Ukraine, and they all understand that the Donbass will not return to the current, Pro-Western version of “independence.” And this understanding enhances the loss – not only the residents of Donbass, but Russian in Russia: so why do you need to endure these attacks, these victims, in the name of what?
If the reunification of Ukraine and Donbass would not be, then why Russia can’t just include the DNI and the LC? Well, geopolitics, relations with the West, sanctions – but why not at least hit the Ukrainian positions along the borders with the DNI and LC, to discourage them any desire to fire at the Donbass? These questions cannot be left unanswered – and it is possible to define the red line, beyond which “everything will change”.
But first you need to recall what he was doing unfair criticism of Putin’s Ukrainian politics the first year and a half after the Crimea – they are all the time screaming that “Putinslil”, that the whole policy of the Kremlin aimed at the return of the breakaway republics in the Ukraine that will “put Donbass”. In all statements of Moscow on the same Minsk process was looking for signs of weakness, concessions, flirting with the West. Strongly ridiculed the “cunning plan of Putin” – well where is he, when will he? “The blood of Donbass at the hands of Putin – if in the spring or summer of 2014, he entered the army, nothing would have happened”, “beckoned the Donbass and left” – no such reproaches. And what do we see now?
The talk about “draining of Donbass” the Kremlin be a lot of crazy or turned putinomania – even most disturbing and suspicious people understand that no one in the Donbass will not give offense. But the people there continue to die, the situation with status suspended – which gives rise to another confusion.
How long will it last? A year or five or twenty? Clearly, when this question is raised by the people themselves of the DNI and the LC – a matter of life of their families, their future, they need certainty and stability. But those in Russia are worried about the status and position of Donbass, because, ultimately, depend both living there Russian people – what can you say to them?
The same as three years ago – Ukraine is broke, there is a civil war.
Crimea was promptly removed Russia from the zone of risk, because there stood the Russian army, and the vast majority of the Russian population wanted reunification with Russia. The other regions of Ukraine, including the Donbass, were in perplexity – after the overthrow of Pro-Western forces Yanukovych and the departure of the Crimea they understood that the old Ukraine is over, but did not understand, what will be the new.
That took power in Kiev will try to make it “Ukrainian” and anti-Russian, came not to all, and once the rebellion was brought up only in Donetsk and Lugansk. The civil war began – in which part of the Donbass with weapons in their hands strayed from ukrainizators. Russia took her under his wing – and geopolitically, militarily and economically. But to attach itself did not – because all of Ukraine is Russia.
Yes, we are one people – the overwhelming part of the population of Ukraine, who is Ukrainian or Russian, they may be called. The only exception are the inhabitants of Galicia – the usual ethnically Russian, they over many centuries of living under the German-Polish and Catholic influence in fact have disappeared from the common people. All the rest – a large part of the Russian people. Ukrainians, which played suddenly gained independence, “the national elite” pass – and unity is not even fate, and the Russian world will remain. That is why Russia can not fight with Ukraine – because it will be civil war. Yes, and so it is – but still in the framework of the “Ukraine”, this part of the Russian world. And if we start war between Russia and Ukraine, it will be a full-fledged civil war as part of one big Russia.
Russian troops to enter the territory of Ukraine it was possible in the summer of 2014, and now the reason we do have, and it is more than serious: the protection of Russian, or rather, that part who is aware of himself as such. But then we have to fight with same as we, the Russian people who wear the uniform of the Ukrainian army and believe that Russia is the aggressor. Yes, they are brought up in the spirit of fake “Ukrainians”, but their head is full of Russophobia, that is denying its own people – but the fact that it happened during the years after the collapse of the USSR is our common tragedy, trouble, a huge problem.
But in any case no reason to destroy them, fight with them. Because we will be like the current Kiev rulers – those who believe we are different peoples, peoples who have not only a different past and different future. Very easy to get into a civil war between two parts of one nation – and it is very difficult to get out of it.
Yes, the civil war in Ukraine is now just frozen, suspended – and it is, alas, may be resumed even in a much more terrible scale than in 2014-2015. But while Russia has the situation under partial control, it will not be – Kiev is afraid to even try to attempt by force to return the Donbass, realizing the power of what backlash he may receive.
The situation in the Ukraine will inevitably deteriorate – in the sense that “failed state” will gradually deteriorate and disintegrate. Elites will squabble, and gradually people realize that deception was not only the slogan “Ukraine is Europe”, and the tenet of “Ukraine – not Russia”. No one knows how long this process will take years – but we have to do everything that it proceeded as quickly as possible. How?
Preventing withdrawal of Ukraine by the West, the Atlantic or the European “security umbrella” – that is, not letting the corrupt, anti-national essentially in Kiev elites to divert square in Europe. If Ukraine has caught NATO and the EU, the process of de-Russification went to full speed – elite would have sold and betrayed their own people. But “the conflict in the East of Ukraine”, the whole situation with the breakaway-nettelephone DNR-LNR were not given the West to begin the digestion of the Ukraine and in Europe and the United States understood that Moscow will not silently observe the “occupation” and atlanticului Ukraine. The West has already agreed to make it a buffer, that is, first, the tough attack on the whole of Ukraine, we are repulsed – despite the fact that the main battle is still ahead.
And they are not the military, not with the West will be spiritual, ideological, value-battle for the return of the population of Ukraine into the Russian world. As soon as it happens – under the influence of economic or other factors – will return and Ukrainian territory. People who live in Ukraine – is our people. And people who are dying in the Donbass on both sides – is our people.
That is why the Kremlin has no red line after which start the war with Ukraine – because the only red line runs along the Western border of “Ukraine”. It’s called the border of the Russian world – the other had not been and never will be. In this work, and Putin, and the whole thousand years of Russian history.