The US President Donald trump once again lashed out at foreign state. This time the discontent of the American leader provoked Iran, causing concern in Washington a few days ago after the test of a ballistic missile. “Iran was officially WARNED (that’s the word trump highlighted in his message to the microblog) after the launch of ballistic missiles, – the President wrote on his Twitter page. He should be grateful for the terrible conditions of the nuclear deal, which went to the United States.” In the ensuing message trump also stressed that “Iran was on its last legs” before Washington handed the country a helping hand in the form of agreement on the nuclear program. What is the President’s intention to revise the nuclear deal, considered one of the main achievements of President Obama, or to reformat the entire US policy towards Iran? This “MK” talked with an expert.
“In U.S. foreign policy towards Iran, obviously, will be amended, – considers the political scientist, specialist on the Middle East, associate Professor, Russian state humanitarian University, Sergei SEREGICHEV. – Trump is not going to break the prisoner under Obama nuclear deal, but is likely to face such actions. And will thus try to “knock out” from Iran more concessions – including, and “ostentatious”.
Maybe trump will try to bind to this Hezbollah, that is to put pressure on Tehran, demanding some way to temper the enthusiasm of this group. Or he’s just going to make sharp statements against Iran, and hiding behind them quietly with the Iranians to negotiate. The Republican party, as we know, agreement on the nuclear program is widely criticized, and trump as a Republican simply can’t afford to assess it positively, as a policy achievement of Barack Obama – this would bury his political career.
I guess trump sends a signal to Iran – the deal is off will not be Iran but for this you need to understand their role and play by American rules. Most likely the President and his team will try to – not too fast, to result in Iranian policy to the condition in which it was before the Islamic revolution of 1978-1979, to make Iran a true “Deputy Sheriff,” the role of the latter, naturally, are the United States, – the gendarme of America in the middle East.
But, as we know, the Iranians in this case is not going to bow to trump, so we have a very “viscous” trade, which will hide behind the mutual accusations in the media sphere.
Tear the deal Washington will not be for the reason that the alternative to it – the military campaign against Iran. And it’s not that the US or its allies do not have enough resources for this (allies won’t be a problem, to build a line ready to fight even without US participation, but with their knowledge): examples of Libya, Iraq show that the destruction of stable structures in the troubled region does not improve the life of the peoples of these countries and the next, but rather worsens. And is a powerful deterrent.
In addition, trump is still a businessman, not a soldier (this, however, does not mean that he is not able to start a war). But even in case of war he will have a business interest – to get more concessions in the USA. He wants to “make America great”? So he wants to show Iran, obeying the “great America”.
Perhaps, trump will work and any additions to the transaction. Maybe we are dealing with a more clever combination, in which the tramp through the nuclear deal “comes” on Syria, trying to gain the loyalty of Tehran in this direction (recall that the Iran – traditional and, in fact, the only ally of Syria in the region, “MK”). Likely many options, but break no deal. Either trump is now thrown big words, diverting attention from something else, or it is a bargain.”