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Saturday, March 24, 2018

Provocation in Avdeevka can be for Poroshenko last

Sharp aggravation of the situation in the Donbass is surprising – someone who benefits from the escalation of military confrontation? It seems that Kiev has decided therefore to have your say in the beginning the dialogue between Putin and trump. And although Poroshenko is not like political suicide, the course of events can lead to the fact that he will lose power.

For several days in the Donbass resumed serious fighting in certain areas, but along the entire front line. Some even say that such intensity was not a long time ago, in 2015. Kiev blames Donetsk and Moscow – that is, Putin has decided to test the reaction of the tramp, not by accident aggravation in the vicinity of the Town began just a few hours after the conversation between the two presidents. The Kremlin agrees that the case in the tramp – that’s just to blame Kiev:

“After the inauguration of the trump in Kiev could calculate that the risk of minimal back than ever”

“We believe that with this latest flagrant provocations in the area of Avdeyevka Kiev just wants to test the degree of preparedness of the new administration – whether it is ready, this administration, to the habit to support any outburst of the Ukrainian security forces or not? It’s like, try some,” said assistant to the President Ushakov.

Indeed, neither Russia nor Donetsk and Luhansk to check trump, certainly not with his hands – all understand that the Western establishment will use any excuse and pretext to prevent a new American President to restore relations between Washington and Moscow. Shooting in the Donbass are constantly – and even if you suspect aggression DNI, it is impossible to explain why the leadership of the Republic could wish to choose a much more successful time for the escalation of the conflict.

But the Ukrainian side the reasons for doing this, alas, is. Alas – because it speaks about both methods and about the level of strategic thinking of the Ukrainian side. Not perfect, but in a more or less normal situation, the Kiev authorities would, on the contrary, after coming to power of the trump try my best to abide by the truce. That is, to do everything to prevent the situation in the Donbass escalated to – because I understand that the new US administration is not eager to use Ukraine in order to tease Russia.

On the contrary, trump wants to build bridges with Putin, pushing the Ukrainian problem to the side – without giving up the rights to Kiev, but not pedaling “European and Atlantic Ukraine”, not teasing Moscow. Trump, in principle, ready for Ukraine to become a buffer between Europe and Russia, and even with the pervasive Russian influence – that is, to what bends and Kissinger. Not a big assignment? Yes, it’s our, Russian, eyes, she is not so strong – because we understand that Ukraine will return to the Russian world – but American elites is very noticeable position change.

In this situation, Kiev would be better to sit quietly and not annoy trump – in the sense that it would have to just complain about the treacherous Russian aggressors and at the same time strongly insist on its readiness to implement all peace agreements. We are for peace, and the Donetsk and Moscow – are the aggressors. That is, at least not to give occasion to suspect itself in aggressiveness, the desire to aggravate the situation on the front line and through it – on the geopolitical stage. Because otherwise, trump will react in a very specific way – who is trying to disrupt the establishment of my contacts with Putin? Poroshenko? You’re fired! Of course, it’s exaggerated reaction – but not much.

So would have to act in Kiev, this collective Poroshenko, if he is to perceive the situation. But the fact of the problem that an adequate relationship to reality is not enough – that the attitude of the USA and Europe to Ukraine is beginning to change, and radically, there don’t want to admit it.

And that’s why we try to act according to the old, but not running scheme to stage a provocation in the Donbass, to heat the situation, blame it on Moscow to get another assurance of the West in its support and condemnation of the Russians. The fact that Kiev is less recently used this scheme, was due to a lot of collateral risk – there was always the likelihood that the response from the republics will begin full-scale counterattack, a kind of operation “Liberation”.

That is retaliation, and will result in the fall of Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk, but the authorities in Kiev. And now, after the inauguration of the trump in Kiev could calculate that the risk of minimal back than ever – why Putin so substituted, depriving trump even the opportunity to begin a rapprochement with Moscow.

This logic is flawed in the home – in what will be the reaction to the Ukrainian provocations. And all external forces. Yes, Donetsk will not fight back – but not because Putin wants to be friends with trump. But because the reunification of the Donetsk region, Novorossia, Ukraine, great Russia has not yet come – it should start to be disappointed in his case the “defenders of Independence”, “fighters against Russian aggression”. Civil war in Ukraine was only suspended but not finished – but forms its continuation can be very different.

The reaction of Europe to Kiev provocations, too, were not as was thought in the Kiev – that is ritual supported, condemned, he said. But in the already famous publication Sueddeutsche Zeitung, entitled “Calculation of Kiev” speak entirely new to European propaganda things:

“Kiev has long required more stringent treatment with Moscow. Merkel for the most part agree with it. Recently, former foreign Minister of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier reiterated that the responsibility for the crisis lies with Moscow and the separatists.

But at the same time, the German government very closely and with increasing alarm not only see how the situation escalated to the so-called line of contact. They understand that this is largely the fault of the Ukrainian side. The tension increases; in the end, at the weekend during the shootings killed four Ukrainian soldiers.

According to the data available in Berlin which, among other things, rely on the reports of the OSCE mission in Eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military is currently trying to move the front line in their favor. Obviously, when they take into account the tensions, I think in government circles of Berlin. For their actions, as suggested by some members of the leadership of Germany, might eventually lead to the expectation that the situation is so aggravated that it will be possible to prevent the plans of U.S. President Donald trump on easing sanctions.

The actions of Poroshenko in Berlin treats so that he will do almost anything in order to prevent the lifting of sanctions against Russia.

However, in the government of Germany, the growing concern that calculations of Kiev can lead to the opposite result. So, trump may ease sanctions, regardless of the situation on the contact line. And then Kiev will suffer a double damage: the improvement of the situation in Russia with simultaneous intensification of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. Will it be possible to ward off Kiev, considering all the above, from his own provocative actions? On this question in Berlin are hesitant to answer.”

That is in Berlin not just understand who is to blame, but also wonder about how is it in Kiev are unable to calculate the consequences of their actions? That is, the Europeans realize that trump is configured to rapprochement with Russia, regardless of what you think about it in Berlin and Paris, not that in Kiev – and Poroshenko is satisfied with such cheap provocations and thinks that they will work. Or does it not Poroshenko – but then trump the more there is a reason to think about why he is on this nothing is the controlling partner. This does not mean that Washington will remove Poroshenko – is not enough to know some of the players of the Ukrainian political scene that a position was open, and the “Kiev politicians” will do everything myself. Especially if Poroshenko will be still on the battlefield.

No, retaliatory counterattack of DNR, that is offensive along the front line, of course, will not, but if fighting will go on increasing and as a result, Ukraine will lose the plant, the effects of Poroshenko will be sad. The opposition had long threatened the independence and the loss of another part of the Ukrainian territory can be a great reason for anti-presidential speeches. And given the growing power price increase in Ukraine and the disappointment that “America betrayed us”, the soil for the protests will be more than prepared.


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