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Saturday, February 24, 2018

Trump and Putin begin to establish “chemistry relationships”

Until a personal meeting of Putin and trump their telephone conversations will be the center of attention: everyone wants to know what is actually said, the two presidents. The first such conversation took place on Saturday, and he really gave a lot of information to ponder. A careful examination of official records, you notice a group of clear political signals.

Strictly speaking, the Kremlin and the White house could do nothing to tell us about the content of the conversation between the two presidents – limiting short, a few lines, listing the topics covered and preparation for a personal meeting.

“Respect between the two leaders is important in itself, but in this case it is also clearly mixed with sympathy”

In Washington, in fact, almost did. But there still noted that “a positive call has become a significant early improvement in relations between the US and Russia, are in need of rehabilitation”, and the two presidents expressed the hope that after the held call, the development of bilateral relations in different spheres of cooperation “will move quickly”. Even the White house has indicated that after a conversation the two sides will “jointly fight against terrorism and work on other important aspects of mutual interest”.

The Kremlin did not skimp on words – and it’s not a word about anything. Parts do not, but they could not be after the first conversation.

Because, first, the details of the conversations between the two presidents are reported to the public is extremely rare. Unless indicated by the range of topics and reported about the agreements if they are achieved.

Secondly, it was the first conversation, almost Dating – therefore, it is clear that the main purpose of the parties was to present its case and to hear the position of the interlocutor. Not in the “question and answer”, and certainly not in the “offer – response”, namely, that in the enumeration of topics and tracking the reaction of the interlocutor. It is all what and who first raised the topic, and the terms in which it was discussed.

With all that trump is an atypical President, his non-format is not so important as the fact that the two leaders still do not have experience of negotiating with each other, did not find his tongue.

Yes, trump is just entering the world of global politics and is still not very fluent in his language. But do not think that professional policies among themselves speak in the language of diplomatic documents. Of course not – neither Bush, nor Obama, Putin did not say a language in the style “underlined the importance of restoring mutually beneficial trade-economic ties between business circles of two countries.” And, of course, will not say them with tramp – but first they need to find the tone that will go with their dialogue.

Saturday conversation this is what was most important – as the two located each other person (and the fact that it is so, I think, needs no proof) feel and gradually find a common language. The option “don’t find and immediately begin to curse” exists only in theory – in practice it was quite impossible on Saturday. The attitude of the two leaders and the characteristics of the first conversation on Dating, and because of the senselessness of the abuse is below to drop the relations between the two countries is impossible.

So in a conversation trump and Putin were important to the establishment of human “chemistry” between them – and, apparently, the parties were satisfied. In the detail message of the Kremlin press service reads it as plain text and between the lines.

Was shown a “mood to work together for the stabilization and development of Russian-American cooperation on a constructive, equal and mutually beneficial basis,” the “agreed to establish a partnership on these and other areas,” “the conversation took place in a positive and business-like manner”.

Then Dmitry Peskov also separately emphasized that “the conversation was good, it was constructive, and in terms of the application terms of the beginning of the discussion a number of issues ( … ) and also very positive from the point of view is probably that the heads of state noted the respect as a very important principle in the bilateral relationship. Stressed that the Americans have respect for Russia, and Putin said that Russia completely will have mutual feelings. In this respect, this is an extremely important conversation.”

To further emphasize the importance of mutual respect, the press Secretary recalled that in “previous years, the deficit of mutual respect was largely the cause of the rollbacks and the degradation of our relations.” Spoke on the topic of respect and Sergei Lavrov, said that “the conversation… was good, I would say, in the political and in the human sense. The conversation showed mutual respect, the desire of leaders to communicate without morals, based on the national interests of each country”.

Respect in relations between the two countries and the two leaders is important in itself, but in this case it is also clearly mixed with sympathy – even when the transmission of the content of the conversation. Interestingly, Dmitry Peskov, on Monday spoke about what trump said about the respect of the Americans towards Russia (this is quoted just above in the text), although in the Saturday message of the Kremlin it was a question about sympathy:

Donald trump was asked to convey wishes of happiness and prosperity to the Russian people, noting that the American people sympathetic to Russia and its citizens. Vladimir Putin, in turn, stressed that Russia have similar feelings to the Americans. He reminded that our country for more than two centuries, supported by America, was an ally in two world wars and now considers the United States as a crucial partner in the fight against international terrorism.”

There is no need to look for the catch – indeed, from sympathy to respect one step. And now there is a big chance that the sympathy of the two leaders could actually lead to building good relations between the two governments. Not close, not allied, not even partnership, but in constant and honest discussions and dialogues.

What all this has value, all these personal sympathy, antipathy, respect – no respect, outraged, tired really unprecedented attention to “the first conversation the two leaders” skeptics. Still nothing happens with these Americans, US policy in the main and the most important issues for Russia remains unchanged, there is nothing that trump will not change (will not, will not – it is the taste of the commentator). And we, in Russia, only unnecessary and fruitless hopes for him the people there – and why is the Kremlin breeds “wishful thinking”? Not only as to betray the national interests is being prepared (to take the Donbass, Syria, Iran, China – add to taste), connect vsepropalschiki.

No hopes no one breeds. It would just be extremely stupid and shortsighted, if Vladimir Putin tried to take advantage of the changing balance of power in the Atlantic camp, did not react on direct, open text calls trump to establish cooperation – primarily on the issue of war with ISIS*. The situation now is all the difference, mirror the mid-80s – only then the hand reached Moscow, and now it makes the Washington. Trump is not Gorbachev, and the United States (despite the similarity of some processes) – not the USSR during perestroika, but a deep crisis and the split in the American elite can deny, only blind.

And certainly it would be strange if Putin seized the moment not just as the most powerful for today a player in the geopolitical game, but as a person, professionally trained skills to win over people. This does not mean that relations with trump Putin will make a major bet on the “strong friendship”. Now is the time when geopolitical goals and interests of a new American President and Russia may well be the same. In what way?

Not only in the war against ISIS – here everything is simple, but not very. ISIS trump with Putin rolled, the language even of this conversation about “the establishment of a real coordination of Russian and American actions to defeat”, as the mood of the General Flynn, give grounds for optimism. But it won’t stop the rivalry for influence in the middle East as a whole.

Since the beginning of the Arab spring, that is, over the past six years, U.S. influence in the region has been badly undermined – and the weight of Russia has increased significantly. Moreover, Russia has returned to the middle East in terms of political influence is now virtually regained its position there forty years ago.

Joint destruction by Russia and the United States ISIS will not remove the rivalry between the two countries for influence in the middle East in General and individual countries in particular. Not by chance, by the way, among the topics of conversation of the two presidents mentioned, and the Arab-Israeli conflict – Palestinian settlement will be the number one topic after ISIS is driven into the desert, and in Syria will come to a truce. Maybe Putin asked trump whether he is going to move American Embassy in Israel from tel Aviv to Jerusalem? Because this one step could disrupt all of Moscow’s attempts to bring Netanyahu and Abbas to the negotiating table. And another thing, if Putin and trump will agree to act on the Palestinian issue very carefully.

Another topic discussed is the situation around the Iranian nuclear program. She was most likely raised by trump – a promise to revise it was one of the key in his election program. While Washington understands that any attempt now to put into question the agreement with Iran from 2015 will hit a number of issues – and to coordinate between the U.S. and Russia with Iran war with ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and relations with Russia in General. No one in the world – except for Israel and Saudi Arabia will not support the US in its pressure on Iran.

Just the message the Kremlin was referred to as a number of international issues. Besides already mentioned, that the fight against terrorism in General (probably they talked about the contacts between the secret services), and strategic stability and non-proliferation, and the situation around the Korean Peninsula (that is, the DPRK’s nuclear programme and the planned location of a new American missile defense system in South Korea). We talked about Ukraine, which on the same day, trump spoke with Merkel and Hollande.

The most important for Russia, of course, is the Ukrainian subject – and it certainly will not be any public statements nor from Moscow, nor from Washington. Nevertheless, to understand that in the US there is a real progress, we will be able very easy for panic to rumors, and then the statements that will be heard from Kiev. No, trump won’t tell Poroshenko, “all thanks, all are free” – but the contrast with the approach of the Obama administration – Biden would be so strong that long to keep the face of the Ukrainian authorities will not be able. So the first effects of the conversation on January 28 we will soon hear and see.

A personal meeting trump and Putin we will see in the next couple of months – I’d venture that in March – April. The Kremlin has made it clear that to determine the place and time, going quickly enough.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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