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Saturday, February 17, 2018

Torn europetrol Poroshenko

Suddenly interrupted by the visit of the Ukrainian President in Berlin for a state of emergency in support of front Avdeevka says more about what the agenda of his visit was prematurely exhausted, than about real concern Poroshenko for the fate of those “whose children will sit in cellars” (as he was pleased to say of the inhabitants of Donbass September 1, 2014). Knowing cynically-applied temper of the owner of the Corporation “Roshen”, continuing to combine doing business with the government, the last occasion of the reduction of the visit is the item. Which Poroshenko has not yet arrived and is unlikely to reach. Common representative of the armed forces DNR Basurin information that the Kiev leader made a sudden return to the country reports of large losses of APU (more than 70 soldiers were killed) hardly relates to reality. And with much larger losses for the third year of the “fighting” army, Poroshenko has canceled important negotiations in Europe, and especially in the United States. So another reason. What?

At a briefing following the meeting with Poroshenko Merkel, above all, felt it necessary to criticize accepted the new American President the law on combating migration, limiting the possibility of entry into the United States to citizens of seven Muslim countries, even if they have dual citizenship. In Germany there are up to 100 thousand. And only after that went to Ukraine and confirmed its readiness to help “and”. While Frau kantslerin in his speech never mentioned the sanctions, while its Ukrainian counterpart repeated the memorized mantra about “increased pressure on Russia.” The only thing focused Merkel in the context of the settlement of the civil conflict in the Donbas – on the need to maintain the Normandy format, comprising leaders of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine last met in Berlin on October 19 last year. Since then there has passed a meeting of Ministers of foreign Affairs, but even the “road map” Minsk agreement to agree and could not because of blocking from the Ukrainian side. Last week, the chief European negotiator for Ukraine – the Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier has resigned. He is preparing to take the symbolic post of President of Germany. Still acting Joachim gauck as the new foreign Minister was appointed Vice-Chancellor and Minister for economy and energy Sigmar Gabriel, representing the coalition of Merkel’s Social democratic party. What is the position of Gabriel on Ukraine? The last time he could share his thoughts on this subject with the Russian President at the end of last year, when he led a delegation of businessmen of Germany in the negotiations regarding the prospects of trade in terms of sanctions in Moscow. Then Gabriel expressed cautious optimism about the possibilities of eliminating them. Therefore, it is unlikely to agree with the opinion of Poroshenko on the side of liability for the violation of the Minsk agreement. Because well aware of who violate the Minsk. You can also put, what is the position of the social democratic heads of diplomacy of the Federal Republic of Germany regarding the prospects of federalization of Ukraine.

It is unlikely that Western support for Kiev will increase which began last weekend the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Donbass. “Creeping offensive” undertaken by the APU for the sake of reaching the border of the sample in September of 2014, facing the start of full-scale hostilities across the front line. What and who in such a strange way wants to show Poroshenko, is anyone’s guess. But Washington and Moscow these actions look the same the last (hopefully!) a desperate attempt to attract the elusive attention of the world community as “extreme Bastion of protection of European civilization from barbarian Russia”. I seriously doubt if someone will lead.

And finally, the last. After winning trump’s eyes in a matter of days breaks down before a single Euro-Atlantic space. The law against the migrants, the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico, warning of the decline in the funding of NATO, organized by plum about unilateral abolition of anti-Russian sanctions. Liberal Europe has lost its transatlantic core. Replace it with the Berlin copy is unlikely to succeed. Besides the impending change of the French President (whoever that may be(a)) is unlikely to help Merkel to establish itself as a European hegemon. And indeed the “Frau pantsuit” is not necessarily will continue his career at the former post on the results of the September elections to the Bundestag. Too serious tectonic shifts began in world politics. And nothing can stop them now. So the new “Norman format” in autumn can all be very surprised by its composition. From Poroshenko and nervous. His time has passed.


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