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Monday, January 22, 2018

The US can cancel the “nuclear deal” with Iran

Iran responded with a launch of a ballistic missile to the deterioration of relations with the United States that emerged with the arrival of Donald trump. For inclusion of citizens of Iran in the list of “banned” can follow trump promised during the election campaign the revision of the nuclear deal and new sanctions. The American media note: missile tests in Iran open to U.S. authorities new opportunities in the middle East.

The UN Security Council will hold on Tuesday an emergency meeting in connection with the implemented by Iran missile test. This was reported by TASS with reference to the permanent mission of Sweden (presidency of the security Council in January) at the UN. The NATO leadership has already made findings. The Alliance needs to continue working on the development of a missile defense system, said the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

“Iran was never prepared to normalize relations with the United States. Here remember the sad experience of Gaddafi, who the West first embraced him, and then strangled”

On the eve of the American channel Fox News, citing a Pentagon spokesman said: January 29, on the ground in 225 km East of Tehran was carried out to test launch medium-range missiles. The rocket flew about 600 km, according to the source.

Washington regarded these reports as evidence that Iran had violated resolution 2231 of the UN security Council. The document adopted at the conclusion of the nuclear deal and entered into force in 2015, requires Iran for 8 years not to test missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Note that the nuclear deal itself (encased in 2015 Tehran and the six countries) does not provide for a ban on the testing of Iran’s ballistic missiles.

Anyway, according to the representative of the Ministry of defense of the United States, the current launch – “this is the second time when Iran violates the will of the international community.”

We also recall that in April 2016 the Russian system of missile warning was recorded by a test launch from Iran of an Intercontinental ballistic missile. Before that, Iran conducted test launches of ballistic missiles in March last year.

After the current reports of missile launches the first alarm sounded for Israel. “Once again, Iran has ignored the resolutions of the UN Security Council and revealed his true intentions. The international community should not bury your head in the sand in the face of this Iranian aggression,” – said earlier the permanent representative of Israel to the UN, Danny Danon. He stressed that Iran’s actions threaten not only Israel but the entire Middle East.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to discuss with trump the possibility of renewed sanctions against Iran. This may be one of the topics at the meeting, which is scheduled for mid-February, reported the press service of the Israeli government.

“Iran will no longer be allowed to commit hostile acts”

Press Secretary of the President of the United States Donald trump Sean Spicer reported that the White house is aware of the holding of Iran’s launch.

The head of the Senate foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Robert Corker has said that he intends to work together with their colleagues and the White house with the goal of bringing Iran to be responsible for the conduct of missile tests, “while ensuring the strict application of the existing restrictions on its nuclear program.”

“Iran will no longer be allowed to constantly violate a ban on ballistic launches that support terrorism, violate human rights and commit other hostile acts that threaten international peace and security,” said Senator Corker. The bellicose statement by the head of the Senate Committee on international Affairs is consistent with the emerging foreign policy of the administration of trump.

In December, the official representative the Ministry of foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Bahram ghasemi called a violation of the nuclear agreement approval by the Senate of the Congress of a bill to extend anti-Iran sanctions for another 10 years. The next step in the deterioration of relations was the measure adopted is actually the property of trump – Iran, as you know, was in the list of the countries whose citizens are restricted from entry into the United States.

Donald trump during the election campaign repeatedly promised to cancel the agreement with Iran, which Obama has repeatedly recorded. In March 2016, trump said that at the conclusion of the agreements the US was “very stupid people”, and previously called the deal a “disgrace” for the United States and announced its intention to terminate the agreement. In early December, elected Vice-President of the United States Michael Penny reported that trump’s advisors have already begun to discuss the fate of the Iran deal. In addition, trump has repeatedly signaled that it will support Israel, the traditional enemy of Iran in the region.

Which countries own, have owned, or are trying to master the technology of nuclear weapons (click to enlarge)it is Obvious that Iran could not respond to the behavior of the United States and, in particular, that the new Pentagon chief was General James Mad dog Mattis, negatively related to Iran. In late November, Iran suddenly changed his mind about the use of Russian air bases on its territory. If in August 2016, a sudden spat between Moscow and Tehran have forced our aircraft to leave the air base at Hamadan, after the victory trump Tehran has said it is ready to once again provide videoconferencing Russia the airbase.

The first test for trump

The newspaper the New York Times, commenting on the situation with the launch of the Iranian missiles, calls what is happening the first test administration trump – can Washington to force Iran to comply with all the conditions of the nuclear deal and an agreement on missile tests. The publication indicates: the new press Secretary of the White house Sean Spacer only stated that the launch had taken place, but said nothing about how a trump administration would react to it.

The impression is that, contrary to statements by the Pentagon chief of Mattis (and to add, the trump), the new administration is not eager to break the agreement of 2015 with Iran.

According to The New York Times, the nuclear deal was the last concession on the part of the negotiators on the Iranian nuclear program, the United States, China, Russia, Germany and France. The previous UN resolution strictly prohibits such trials, and this formulation the Iranians vehemently denied.

The rocket opens new possibilities for the administration of the tramp, says The New York Times: the United States could join Israel with the new sanctions, which will relate primarily to the use of missiles arising from the nuclear agreement. But it’s unclear whether there is a desire from the rest of the signatories of the agreement 2015 – EU, China and Russia, said the publication.

It started long before trump

The scientist-orientalist Tofik Abbasov, commenting on the VIEW of the Iranian missile tests, said that among the Iranian elite have never had any illusions about the normalization of relations and contacts with the United States.

“Immediately after the conclusion of the nuclear agreement with the us part, followed by the imperative that they must continue a dialogue to discuss regional problems. In response, the spiritual leader of Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said any further agreements with the United States will not be signed and the nuclear deal is a kind of ceiling concessions,” the expert reminded.

Iran, said Abbasov, his actions have proved and proves that he intends to play alone, anyone not hoping, and all of his allies have relations with Iran under a separate long-term programs. In addition, the orientalist believes that in the American establishment anti-Iranian aggression was peculiar in varying degrees to all groups. “Therefore, the Iranian elite was never prepared to normalize relations with States. They remember the sad experience of Muammar Gaddafi, who the West first made in a friendly hug, and then strangled,” he added.


According to Abbasov, the rhetoric trump, who promised during the election campaign to take against Iran stringent measures, was not in Tehran a surprise. “The missile program of Iran is not a matter of one month, it’s part of a long strategy. Iran goes its own way, now just test in the time interval coincided with the beginning of the presidency of Donald trump. Iran has long been worked on missiles “Shahab” and other types of rockets of average and small range. These developments were part of the national program, not a reaction to the events of recent months”, – Abbasov says.

The Israeli political scientist, a former Israeli intelligence officer, Yakov Kedmi also believes that the missile tests Iran is not a reaction to the promises and rhetoric trump, but in General a continuation of the systematic policy of Iran to develop its own ballistic missile and development of missile industry. “Such tests are not conducted from day to day, their conduct is not connected with the political reaction to the current problems, technically they are prepared very long,” – said the expert newspaper VIEW.

“Iran should not cornering”

With regard to possible adjustments of the position of Russia on the Iranian issue, Abbasov reminded that in 2010 Russia supported sanctions against Iran.

“Then many realized that the target, and many, including those in the Russian elite realized that Iran should not cornering as it had a negative effect on bilateral relations”, – said the expert.

Orientalist believes that now Russia will not support a possible tough stance of Israel and the United States on Iran at the expense of worsening relations with Tehran. “The Syrian gambit, in which Moscow is actively cooperating with Tehran, is not yet complete. Moreover, in the framework of a nuclear agreement Iran has fulfilled its obligations, and the development of missiles to this agreement has no relation”, – he explained.

“Israel must be ready for total destruction of Iran”

According to Yakov Kedmi, Russia, like any other country, should respond in accordance with how and to what extent Iran is committed to international or intergovernmental agreements.

But regarding Israel, according to Kedmi, the situation is completely different, because Israel is “rightly sees Iran as a threat to its own national security.” If Tehran will acquire nuclear weapons, it means that the expert believes, the rocket will be the means of delivering nuclear weapons, including for attacks on Israel.

“We must therefore develop its army and military industry. Should, on the one hand, to create systems that neutralize Iranian missiles, on the other, to produce and develop weapons, which in the case of the attempts to use Iran such weapons against Israel will lead to complete and utter destruction of Iran,” – said Kedmi.


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