The President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko to urgently interrupted the visit to Germany because of the situation in Avdeevka. The situation is really extraordinary. And it’s not even a sharp and large-scale intensification of the conflict in the Donbass, and that APU for the first year ran into a tough and bloody response from the BCH. The name of the culprit in Ukraine already know is Donald trump.
On the eve of the APU made another attempt to attack a large force VSN positions near Donetsk, in the triangle Sands – Yasinovataya – Avdeevka, on the arc svetlodarsk and Dokuchaevsk. Again the houses flew the shells are falling in the private sector in the Donetsk and Yasinovataya, Makeyevka, where the administration was forced to cancel classes in schools. But the General aggravation of this time had changed: for the first time in a long time BCH responded harshly. Even particularly hard.
“Stiff corpses of Ukrainian soldiers, after a last attempt to break into the arc svetlodarsk a month as the main irritant of the Ukrainian segment of the Internet against the background of official propaganda, where the “no losses”
The intensity of the fighting has gradually increased since the middle of last week, but by Sunday the situation is completely out of political control. Both sides began to use rocket artillery on the position of the BCH flew four rockets from “Uragan” (maybe more – no one is checked). Multiples have increased and losses. Roughly BCH lost 10 men killed, such was not very long ago.
From this point on the Ukrainian side attacked is rare and limited forces. In fact, as “attacks” – the frontal attack of infantry up to platoon with the support of armored personnel carriers – they can count only two attempts – the Avdeevka and near Mariupol. Both escalated into a massacre because at Avdeevka barrage of Ukrainian artillery fell on her, and an attempt to break through to Novoazovsk evil through Shirokino completely bogged down. However, the fire increased, were gradually joined by more heavy calibers.
From 18.00 Sunday BCH artillery opened a heavy fire (this is not a literary cliche, but time-tested term) almost all the North-Western arc of the front of the airport and the village of Sands to Avdeevka. Nobody, of course, not been calculated, but the overall feeling for the evening at the Ukrainian positions were fired more shells than during the whole previous month “truce”. At a gathering of Ukrainian equipment and manpower worked in almost all available types of artillery, including RZSO. It is in principle easy, since the APU have a habit to constantly move up to the front line of a major force in local conditions and their talents to logistics leads to “traffic jams” of armored vehicles. Gradually the fire attack engulfed several other parts of the front, for example, to the East of the Town, in the area of responsibility of the LC.
Ukrainian losses at this stage of the fighting are difficult to quantify, but they are significant. In the situation of information war Kiev recognizes only a small portion of the victims, according to the tradition of the other “topogenous” retroactively. The same applies to losses in armored vehicles. By Monday evening the Ukrainian side, complained that the attacks are continuing (albeit not as intensely) almost across the front line – from the Azov sea to Kharkiv region.
Especially prominent situation in the industrial area of the Town and at the other end of the front – widely known Shirokino. Artillery duel in the industrial area lasted more than a day, until all positions of the APU was not suppressed by the massive blow. BCH even made two attempts to counterattack, but in this area it is very difficult to gain a foothold is a small area where dense buildings of the former brickworks is punctuated by open field (Europe’s largest Avdiivka coke plant is located North of the city – it is visible in binoculars, but in the area of direct contact fire misses). This is a classic case of “neytralke”, but for the first time BCH has decided not to give themselves tried to gain a foothold in not equipped earlier positions.
The fighting in the industrial area of Avdiivka and forth Yasinovataya and Cool beam (advanced village at the border of the industrial zone and the former Villa development) in this mode can continue indefinitely. Until the last day of the APU was used here, as in the arc svetlodarsk, some relaxation commanders VSN (let’s call it so, but more responsible people call it “shoals”), and literal compliance with the “Minsk agreements” that allowed them to move somewhere a kilometer. Also it was assumed a frontal attack separate fortified settlements, heights and positions, which ultimately resulted in losses to the Ukrainian side, but created a wave of euphoria information. The concept of “frog jumps”, which a week ago was seen as a long-term plan for the war of attrition, according to the laws of the Ukrainian ideological struggle suddenly multiplied by infinity, and specially trained people started saying that from day to day in the same way the APU will take Debaltsevo, Yasynuvata and Dokuchaevsk, and after that to surround Donetsk at hand.
In reality, several attempts to turn “jumping” in the present promotion is not in the void, and the position where you can consolidate and modify the line of battle, drowned in blood. 58 brigade, of course, my fault, but at the rate her soon nothing will remain.
Experience suggests that the daily losses in three or four people tend to destroy the consciousness of the officer corps. First pass the Junior officers, who are not only forced to unsubscribe to the funerals and to respond to the famous version (the stiff corpses of Ukrainian soldiers, after a last attempt to break into the arc svetlodarsk a month as the main irritant of the Ukrainian segment of the Internet against the background of official propaganda, where the “no casualties”), but also to draw up formal reports on the personnel for higher command. It is a chore, destroying the brain. After 3-4 days, these reports from the platoon commanders served with the head of a battalion commander, a few days in sverhkontsentratsiya – the commander of the brigade. By this time reports of daily losses and accept the nature of avalanches, and the officer corps begins to demolish the roof. In such circumstances, can never attack, and just take daily up to five people in the area of responsibility of the front, and the enemy in a month will simply collapse. What seems to be happening to the famous 58th brigade, and imparted to her tank company.
Newspaper OPINION wrote that the advanced positions of the two parties is unable to bear a massive artillery strike. This is what we are seeing now for several hours artillery VSN swept away not only the advanced positions of the Ukrainian army from the village of sand to the Town, but also effectively struck them to the depths. APU, of course, simply because of the number able to organize a heavy attack on a separate front, but at the first stage will suffer huge losses, and more – is not the fact that a possible breakthrough runs into unexpected reserves of the BCH. Now in the DNI and LC create a “secondary network” alert for those veterans of the war in the new Russia, which for one reason or another were not included in the staffing levels of current corps, or not resigned to the citizen. In the last few days the Ukrainian side is actively used electronic warfare, on some fronts at VSN for a while had problems with communication, because the new rear warning system is now “sharpened” to avoid hitting from enemy electronic warfare. In General anything high-tech Ukrainian side in recent days was not observed.
The political response of artillery
Face deep in front, with large initial losses from the “veteran” parts, or even with Russian troops (depends on the depth of penetration) of the Ukrainian General staff do not want – don’t believe they’re still geese with wings. Therefore to expect from them now something more than the frequent “testing” on the most dangerous sections of the front should not. On the other hand, the BCH also not ready to implement far-reaching plans for “the yield on the Dnieper” or at least to liberate Lysychansk, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Volnovakha, Mariupol and Karlovka as primary purposes (that is, the whole territory of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions). Although on paper the Napoleonic plans of both sides can look quite realistic.
As a result, APU has turned the tactics of “frog jumps” in the sort of fetish and was very surprised when received this response, which was not before last summer.
Creeping “released neytralke” more than a year passed for the Ukrainian army with impunity. Somewhere that was not too noticeable, for example, in the same industrial area where it is not always clear who is in which building, who “pressed”, and the work of snipers sometimes in principle makes all the jumps are pointless (fire control on earth more important than physical). But in some other areas, in particular in the direction of Mariupol, where the steppe and the expanse of it, on the contrary, looked very clearly. Initially in Shirokino beginning aktivnichat Ukrainian Marines, who practiced issued to her advances after training with NATO instructors in Yavoriv. And okay, that nothing in the village alive for a long time left, and these positions are worthless not that strategic, but also tactical point of view, there is in principle. BCH is rested at the level of battalion commander with the Callsign “Small”. He became ideologically important not to give Shirokino, Kominternovo and neutral zone to Sartana, the strategic importance of which the gardens around it really has not been canceled.
As a result of the APU in the face of the 36th brigade of Marines, several battalion groups of the 28th and 17th motorized rifle brigade and the 54th reconnaissance battalion literally put his horns in defence BCH, stubbornly trying all available means to move either in the Primorsky highway through Shyrokyne, on the road or on Krasnoarmeyskaya, that is, through Water and Kominternovo. And this is the steppe. Winter, snow, frozen ground, winds are blowing – there is established, SWAT. Attempts to move to Kominternovo at some point acquired for the APU nature of the mania, but it did not help.
Not that the commanders VSN southern flank in this case put in an example (the”Small” was eventually removed from office under the pretext of “improving”, that Minsk did not violate OSCE unnerving). But in cases when the BCH is not giving the Ukrainian side of neutral, just out of principle, why it turns out. Even with the problems, in Shirokino, where the battle for the commanding heights sometimes were spontaneous and relevant to this style of command loss: seized hurriedly mountain – happy victory received direct fire from the tanks began to retreat – caught up howitzers on “his” hill. The more that a sandy ridge away from Shirokino in the North-East, and does not cover the village along the coast.
So the main thing in this story is a sharp and energetic response BCH. In theory, the activity of the Ukrainian side it would be possible “to lower on brakes”. Anywhere they went, no strategic positions are not occupied, well, God be with them if their soldiers do not mind. And all this propaganda for internal use (“we’re a kilometer from Debaltsevo”) deaf ears – enough for the satellite images to look at to verify the inadequacy of these assertions. Because none of the current retaliatory strike on positions of the APU has not been more than a year and a half.
It is clear that the command of the BCH is also suffering from a “syndrome of loss” as the men in the trenches opposite. It is forced to prove their competence, and their statements are sometimes much more complex and Moody than in Mat, where the stakes go. The command of the corps BCH overly bureaucratic – this was done by the people of the Soviet hardening, what is the positive side, accountability and responsibility perfectly and for loss asked harshly. But a simple emotional desire to be responsible for previous losses is not sufficient to use this amount of artillery quickly developed targets. It was a political, not an emotional decision.
Trump has merged Donbass
In the Ukrainian segment there are practically no specific of military censorship (it is purely a negative factor for 100 thousand warring factions, and not “freedom of speech”), and that entrenched meme “trump merged.” It is expected that vigorous attempts to test the defenses of the BCH in the most difficult sectors of the front were associated with the first telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald trump. But the unexpectedly harsh response of the BCH as it confirms the theory that the new American administration will not support the aggressive plans of Kiev and a large-scale offensive can not count. Quite the contrary – it is time to dig trenches on the outskirts of the city of Dnepr (Dnepropetrovsk or, if so familiar).
Well, maybe. At least this is the case when the Ukrainian world picture does not look the Martian Chronicles. In some republics of the former USSR politicized part of the population believes that Vladimir Putin is starting his day with a question “and as there is in (here insert the name of the country or even locality)”. Usually this is nothing more than a provincial narcissism, “restorationist”, often the result of psychological trauma in the wars. Ukraine in this sense worst of all, this is something like a threat of the syndrome. There may well launch a massive attack just to “learn”, what did Putin and trump. And received for the first time in a long time, a ton of iron on his head, “find out” that “trump merged.”
He can, of course, and “leaked”, but the decision to stop creeping aggression on the “neutral” ripe for a long time. And after BCH lost per day, 10 people were killed, a Ukrainian shells flew in the neighborhoods, Mat waited for what was coming. It’s hard to imagine Putin, after talking with trump tells someone to “let them now there Avdiyivka answer.” It’s like the CIA reasoning that the Russian President personally responsible for the actions of “Russian hackers”. For Ukrainian propaganda will come down, it is still not good, but it looks still weird. But the requirements of the inhabitants of Yasinovataya, Makeyevka, Dokuchaevsk and dozens of villages to stop it all to hell is a daily reality. Rallies of people, whose homes are flying “Hurricanes” is a daily experience for many Donetsk commanders and administrators, not only for General Eduardo Baturina, who is already look scary when he listens to the women once the attacked area of the city. Women of Donbass – this is not a “March against trump”. It is not creative, on his head wearing.
The decision about a retaliatory strike, of course, was made not only military and not even at the level of corps commander. If you look at events through the eyes of Ukrainian consumers, media, all, of course, was led by Putin himself and trump. But in reality, the “frog jumping” and Intrusive attacks, bloody battles of a nameless height, piles and woods had to get back at least a year. In the end, on this front really is a situation when under fire control can get not only the usual “the details of geography”, but also important transport interchanges. Entire villages may again be under threat all the time if it does not stop.
And the fact that trump came to the word – and good. USA was the only really important resource that relied Kiev. To soderjatsya when insurance is exhausted, normally. But it makes no sense to defuse a bomb that has already exploded.