One of the Chinese commanders predicted a war between the US and China in the reign of Donald trump. The steps of the new us administration is really nervous about Beijing but do to the extent that there is a real danger of military conflict between the two most powerful powers of the world, and in the near future?
The people’s liberation army of China published on its website a statement from one of the official representatives of the Central military Commission. In a statement, quoted on Tuesday, “new York times”, clearly stated that with the coming to power of Donald trump’s war with China the United States has become almost inevitable. In addition, it recommends to send the ships of the Chinese Navy in the East China and South China seas to change the strategy in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Trump is trying to emulate the model of Nixon, just the opposite: Nixon formed an Alliance with China against the USSR, and trump is trying to make Russia at least neutral relations with China”
As you know, the views of Washington and Beijing in the South China sea differ dramatically. If China claims this area, there develops a natural disputed Islands and pours of new, artificial, trying to establish control over the passage of international courts, the United States and a number of nearby countries demand to keep the sea route free. During the election campaign, trump repeatedly called Beijing one of the main opponents of the US, accused him of building a “fortress” on the disputed Islands and unwillingness to help to curb the nuclear ambitions of the DPRK. Trump threatened to strengthen the American military presence in the South China sea to stop the construction of the Beijing artificial Islands.
In Beijing, there are increasing concerns about the failure of the trump from the “one China policy”, which was held by his predecessor Barack Obama. Thus, China considers the island of Taiwan “for its rebellious province” which needs to be returned to China. Because of this, China refuses to have diplomatic relations with countries that recognize Taiwan as independent. However, at the end of last year, trump talked on the phone with the head of Taiwan than alarmed the Chinese.
In mid-January, the Chinese President XI Jinping as part of his European tour, talked about the fact that China will attempt to “build a new model of relations with the United States.” During a meeting at the Davos world economic forum with the outgoing Vice-President of the United States Joe Biden, XI urged the United States to work together to build long-term relationships. The announcement came after trump nominated for the post of Secretary Rex Tillerson urged China to send “clear signal” about the unacceptability of his actions on the disputed Islands in the South China sea.
However, critics of trump in the country had accused the new President in action for the benefit of China. Last week Republican Senator John McCain said that the decision of the tramp on the country’s withdrawal from the agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership will only help strengthen China’s economic power.
Senior researcher, Institute of Far Eastern studies expert of the Center for analysis of strategies and technologies Vasily Kashin takes such statements seriously. He recalled: in recent years, relations between the two countries only worsened, and the military conflict was considered possible even under Obama.
“When you trump a gradual increase of tension can become unmanageable and avalanche. It’s just a statement of a new quality of Chinese-American relations,” Kashin said the newspaper VIEW. He recalled that previous governments of both countries with mutual distrust still gained the vast experience of behaviour in relation to different acute problems, starting with the question of Taiwan. If in Beijing, this whole experience has been preserved in Washington got a new team.
“At the Pentagon, the continuity is maintained, and General Mattis – respected military professional. But, for example, in the White house and the state Department partly in a huge number of people just dispersed. It is already clear that trump is inclined to question the fundamental truths that are all around long agreed not to discuss, such as the notorious theme of “one China policy”, – said the expert.
According to Kashin, the peculiarity of the tramp that the wave is in General proper awareness of the unfortunate former foreign policy he is beginning to question everything. For him there is no indisputable truths, he takes established over decades of practice and asks the question, why continue in the same spirit. “The rules are changing on the go. Yes, and trump is not always has the necessary knowledge to understand the consequences of their actions,” he warned.
New American realities overlap that China is in the growth of national consciousness, a feeling of power and pride. For example, if in 90-e years the people forgave the government for some things, as with the cases of mass anti-Chinese pogroms in Indonesia in the Wake of the Asian financial crisis, then, if now the Chinese government will not protect honour and interests of the country, even in smaller crisis, the public reaction may be unpredictable. “The growing tension between the US and China is exacerbated by the increasing military capabilities of China and the simultaneous strengthening of the US presence in the Pacific,” warns the expert.
In turn, the American political scientist from the University of Tennessee Andrey Korobkov considers that the Chinese are seriously waiting for the war. But they understand that strategically trump really considers China the main threat and that the center of power in the global balance is shifting from the Atlantic and Western Europe on the North Pacific.
“This line will continue. This strategic approach trump. The Chinese military is aware of this and prepare themselves and the public opinion about this change. Tensions between China and the United States will rise as economic and military-strategic. This is what justified the change of the US towards Russia. Trump is trying to emulate the model of Nixon, just the opposite: Nixon formed an Alliance with China against the USSR, and trump is trying to make Russia at least neutral relations with China,” Korobkov said the newspaper VIEW.
According to his forecast, US military strategy will be refocused on the potential conflict with China to support his opponents and simultaneously to improve relations with Russia. “Under Obama Russia has strongly pushed away from Europe and pushing towards China. Clearly, trump thinks this is a flawed strategy” – sure box.
Director of the research Center for East Asia and SCO of MGIMO Alexander Lukin has reminded that, according to one of the open Chinese documents – White paper on security, war with the United States is unlikely. “This is the official look. As for different individual generals, there is always someone about something speaks. However, usually it’s retired people, and not such a high level”, – said Lukin told the newspaper VIEW.
The appearance of such statements from a representative of the current military Council, according to the expert, due to the desire of China to openly show concern. At the same time, Beijing shows a misunderstanding of the tramp, “which makes controversial statements”.
“The Chinese want to show that they are ready and not afraid of even the most negative development of events. But it is unlikely that official representatives of the Central military Commission of the PRC really think that will start a war with the United States. Perhaps China wants to exert pressure on the new us administration”, – said Lukin, adding that such statements are made and based on the internal audience, because in China “is strengthening the different nationalist tendencies”.