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Sunday, February 18, 2018

Instead of rebooting trump will start another game


Donald trump continues to shape his administration. In the U.S., and in Russia, louder the voices of those who believe that Trump will not allow to find common language with Putin – in the States this is indicated by the neocons and supporters to put pressure on Russia, and we have those who believe that the worse, the better. The trump continues to insist that he will be able to get along with Putin.

During the visit edition the New York Times President-elect confirmed that he will improve relations with Russia, and opposes foreign intervention. Senators McCain and Graham recently promised that will not allow the Trump to change US foreign policy, in particular, to move away from deterrence and pressure on Russia. Trump, in response, spoke clearly enough:

“Surprisingly in Russia it is possible to hear louder calls “not to believe” Trump”

“The Syrian problem must be solved, otherwise it will be endless war. My view on Syria is not the same as everyone, not like most. I hear the words of Lindsey Graham, who spoke about the attack on Syria, attack in, but it’s still something to attack Russia, attack Iran, attack. And what do we get? What do we get? I have a very clear, very distinct ideas about Syria… Madness going on in Syria must cease. I spoke with Putin, you know, he called me…

– You will have to reset the relationship with Russia?

– You know, after what happened earlier, I won’t use that word. I’d like to find a common language with Russia, and they, I think, will be pleased to find a common language with us. It is in our common interest. And I have no pre-formed opinions. I’ll tell you what, when during the campaign they said that Donald trump loves Putin, and Putin loves Donald trump, I replied that is not that great, I said it to thousands of people, wouldn’t that be great if we will fight together with ISIS*, which is not only dangerous, by the way, but also very expensive, and the existence of ISIS should not be tolerated.

People applauded. You know, they thought it was bad. Bad that I find Putin a common language, I believe that if we agree with Russia, it will be for the best. It would be well to negotiate not only with Russia but with other countries.”

Trump and after the victory said very specific things – however, surprisingly in Russia it is possible to hear louder calls “not to believe” Trump. Congress will not allow Trump to go on a rapprochement with Putin, and the trump just talks about his sympathy for the Russian President, and look at those whom he appoints in his administration, a hawk on the hawk, and many are Russophobes. Such comments are increasingly heard in the Russian press – and their authors can understand.

First, most of them preached that “the President has appointed Clinton” – and now their conception of the world order struck a powerful blow, which they try to mitigate arguments in the style of “all tarred with the same brush”, i.e. the coming to power of the trump does not change anything neither in the US nor in us-Russian relations.

Second, trump creates a very unusual team – the Communists would call it the “military-reactionary junta”. However, for today’s liberals (American, Russian) Tarnowskie conservatives are too terrible reactionaries, almost fascists, so we offer them generals-Marines can scare as California transgender and Moscow hipsters. But no matter what “reservoir dogs” gained no trump, you need to understand that define American foreign policy for it will be the US President, and unlike Obama (especially first term), trump is neither the Vice President nor the Secretary of state, which would have formed for him by his foreign policy.

And most importantly, as advocated by trump, remains the same – America first, we should strengthen the American economy and the American army, globalization is a phantom, the revising of the allies, and they have to pay more for their own safety, abandoning the “export of democracy” (that is, from the outer expansion), we find a common language with Russia at least in the fight against common threats.

This fundamental installation of the tramp – until he began to do something opposite, it is necessary to proceed from the fact that it is really set up to do what he said. Yes, adjusted for degrees of pre-election rhetoric – for example, to build not a wall but a fence with Mexico, not to expel 11 million illegal immigrants, but smaller and not so fast. But evidence to suggest that trump is not just going to do what he said, and is preparing to do just the opposite – that is, for example, do not try to negotiate with Putin, and even more conflict with Russia – no.

And especially it concerns the Russian-American relations, which, as correctly pointed out on Wednesday in the Kremlin, “located at the bottom” and “hardly something to mess around”. The dialogue will not be easy – but it will.

And most importantly – there is a very big chance that the two presidents will talk to do a new language – the language of geopolitical interests of the two powers. The novelty of this language is that after the collapse of the USSR, the United States led the conversation with the position of the owner of the world differed only in the extent to which the “problems of Russia”. From a full, almost demonstrative disregard of even the minimum of interests of Russia in the first half of the 90s to sincere indignation “imagines” about the Kremlin in the late 90’s, from the “Russia has no zone of vital interests” in the beginning zero to the forced “we’re willing to recognize your authority on the part of the post-Soviet space” at the end of the last decade. In short, it was not a dialogue, but diktat – as, in fact, called this style of relationship Putin. And when Moscow finally convinced of the futility of waiting any equal treatment started to answer harshly, and specifically, in Washington, was extremely surprised.

Since 2012, relations between the two countries became a confrontation – at first expressed only in making Moscow’s tough measures against US interference in the internal Affairs of Russia. Since the summer of 2013, after fleeing Snowden, the confrontation was open, and in March 2014 took the form of blockade of Russia by the US. That attempt to block Russia out of the US side, that is, only show a low level of US control over the international community, it was already clear then – and after two and a half years is not even necessary to prove.

Trump comes to the White house at the time of the lowest of US influence in world Affairs for the entire period of their 25-year-old hegemony – because in reality, this hegemony ended a few years ago and now we just need to admit it publicly. Trump came in as President of the new America – one who takes himself already does not belong to her the title of “masters of the universe” and passing in the number of “strongest of the strong.”

And the conversation with this kind of America – with all the differences between us geopolitical contradictions – can be quite constructive. Because this conversation is about the interests of two national States – and not a dispute claim global authority with the supporter of a world order based on balance of forces in the different civilizations.

This is the conversation of the President of the strongest country in the world that feared and hated by many people, with the President of one of the most important countries of the world, which is rapidly regained geopolitical initiative and the respect of many. This is a conversation of the Atlantic and Eurasia, a conversation between two strong leaders, patriots of their countries, each of which “reason” really, really hate those who call themselves “global elite”.

Donald trump has called the most independent President of the United States – he described Henry Kissinger, the Patriarch of American politics. Independence trump not his billions – and that, as correctly noted by former Secretary of state, he has no obligations to any of the groups (the American elite). Victory trump is an internal revolution in the United States, Kissinger said, and this is a chance for revolution, the radical changes in American foreign policy, and hence in the global geopolitical device. More precisely, the possibility of a serious acceleration and “cheapening” of the revolution, which in recent years advances in the global arena, Vladimir Putin.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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