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Saturday, February 17, 2018

Polish “independence” will end differently than Ukrainian


The event, dubbed the “Polish independence” continue to develop, the opposition promised to block the Parliament even during the holidays. However, the chances of the authorities – and Russophobic clerical party “law and justice” – while the look is preferable. At least, it quite successfully intimidate the poles of the Ukrainian Maidan, which had previously supported.

In Warsaw a fierce battle now came the two political forces. From “guardians” is a national-conservative party “law and justice”, according to the results of the last parliamentary elections, formed a single-party government and prodanovska his man for President. From the “Maidan” – the liberal opposition Civic platform (until recently she was the ruling power), the party of the “Modern” (Nowoczesna), the Polish peasant party and some other organizations. Street protests began in mid-December – after the government decided to restrict access of the press to the meetings of Parliament.

“After the start of the protests to support the “Law and justice” even up”

For “Law and justice” it was a logical move in line with traditional policy. For example, a year ago, the IPR has already pushed through amendments to the law on the press, putting it under the control of the National Council for media. Even then, these amendments have caused mass outrage, but only now it is expressed in a full-scale protest actions. Civic platform and his comrades accused the government desire to conceal from the public the process of making unpopular laws. The Parliament began a fierce skirmish, the opponents of IPRs blocked the rostrum. In order not to disrupt the adoption of the budget for 2017, the speaker of the Sejm Marek Kuchcinski even ordered to postpone the meeting in the hall of columns, where there was no electronic vote counting system – vote with a simple show of hands. After the opposition brought people to the streets of Warsaw under the slogan “We protect democracy!”, “The Seimas is ours!” and “Free media!”. Has begun “siege” of Parliament, and the police had to use force to unblock the entrances and to disperse those who prevented the departure of cars of deputies from the “Law and justice”. There was even information on the use of tear gas, the police have not confirmed.

A resident of Bialystok, Secretary of the Russian cultural and educational society in Poland Andriy Romanchuk stressed that “Civic platform” party and “Modern” to the protests were prepared in advance by creating the Committee for the defence of democracy immediately after losing the election, and a bill to limit the media access to meetings of Parliament, made just a pretext. “The ruling circles have already passed back and canceled so indignant all the amendments. But it’s not calmed passions. Deputies of opposition parties organized around the clock in the plenary hall of the Sejm. They are there in groups of 5-10 people, and each shift lasts 8 to 12 hours – and will be until January 11, when the scheduled first sitting of Parliament in the new year. About full-fledged “independence”, I have not yet talked about, since it is now all part of a “cabal” of politicians, political activists and the press. 90% of the population relate to what is happening with indifference and passively waiting for what will happen next. Now we have to see what happens near the date January 11. If the opposition fails to this day to organize in Warsaw any demonstrations by 15-20 thousand people, then they will look like clowns,” said Romanchuk newspaper VIEW.

In turn, the political scientist, specialist on the region Stanislav Stremidlovsky emphasizes that reorganization of the work of Polish journalists in the diet is really a formal occasion, but more real was the vote on the draft budget for 2017 in the absence of the opposition forces. “Currently, the opposition refused to lift the blockade of the Presidium of the Sejm, the protest will continue during the holidays. The Minister of internal Affairs of Poland Mariusz Blascak said that the authorities are not going to expel opposition MPs by force, but noted that the re budget vote will not take place”, – he told the newspaper VIEW.

Stremidlovsky referred to the results of a survey conducted on 21 and 22 December (ie, after the start of the protests) social campaign Millward Brown. They showed that support for “Law and justice” has grown to 35%. Deputy Michal’, said Katarzyna wójcik from the “Civic platform” recognized that the result of the IPR was a “surprise” – it is expected that the “party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski will have much worse results.” But the rating have grown and the party of “Modern” (Nowoczesna), which is chaired by Ryszard Petru, but “contemporaries” of all the opposition hold the most radical position. So, Peter said that it intends to initiate procedure of dissolution of the Sejm, if the ruling party does not fulfill the requirements of the opposition and hold a second vote on the budget for 2017. The increase in ratings of the ruling party and radicals from the opposition says that in Poland continues the polarization of opposing forces.

“In my opinion, the current conflict is still the “lead” of the ruling. The opposition Pro-government media are “anarchists”, compare their actions with the Ukrainian Maidan 2013-2014. They remind us that the demands of the opposition – is an analogue of the law of the “free veto” (Liberum veto), that is, the principle of parliamentary device in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of Both Peoples, which allowed any Deputy to the Sejm to stop the discussion in the Sejm and the Sejm generally, opposing. In addition, the head of Pis, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, has initiated the process of the split of the opposition into systemic and non-systemic. The first proposed official status, the head of such a systematic opposition forces will be equated to the Deputy Prime Minister. The result of the opposition coalition in Poland could start to fight within itself and collapse,” suggests Stremidlovsky.

A leading analyst of the Agency for political and economic communications Michael Neyzhmakov also believes that the protest on the issues that provoked demonstrations in December will likely decline. “Detractors of the “Law and justice” enough – both inside the country and in the EU institutions. The latter also continue to criticize Warsaw. Here, the European Commission recently once again urged to implement the recommendations of Brussels on the judicial system (which, according to Brussels bureaucrats, is not in Poland is fully independent from the authorities – approx. OPINION). But, assessing the situation soberly, the most visionary of these opponents will focus not on a quick overthrow of the current Polish government, and a regular siege,” – emphasizes the expert.

Consider the current events in Poland, a direct analog of the euromaidan would be, according to Neizhmakov, too bold – although such Parallels are held frequently. “However, the organizers of the Polish stock probably remember how the Ukraine towards the end of December 2013, the protest activity began to decline, and in the new, 2014, the opposition had one more reason to mobilize supporters – “laws 16 January”. The Polish opposition certainly hopes that their power in the new year too, just settle them new reasons for protest. Meanwhile, continuing parallel with the neighboring country, I will say that the actions of the Polish opposition in its significance does not resemble the “Maidan” and the campaign “Ukraine without Kuchma” in 2000-2001. The next step to “warm up” the opposition voter and his / her radicalization,” said Neizhmakov the newspaper VIEW.

I should add that “law and justice” Kaczynski always been perceived in Poland as at least moderate, but eurosceptics. Being in the spirit of the national-conservatives and the Catholic clergy, they are not against the country’s membership in the EU, but seek to limit the excessive interference of Brussels in the Polish case, a clear preference for Washington. In particular, IPR is against the delivery to Poland on EU quotas of refugees from the Middle East, held a ban on abortion, reserved refers to the ruling in the European Union “tolerance discourse” brutal fighting corruption, enforces the Polish national patriotism. Their opponents, on the contrary, insist on the strict European liberalism, the former leader of “Civil platform” Donald Tusk is the President of the European Council. And, given so many different “genetics” opponents, their collision looks perfectly natural. Another question is whether the opposition to harden, if it comes to bloody excesses, as in Ukraine? While such a scenario seems not very likely.

source

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