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Monday, February 19, 2018

The White house initiative on Syria threat to the United States


On what policy to choose trump in the Syrian direction, wondering since his election victory. So the first step is done – the White house is waiting for the state Department and the Pentagon proposals for the creation of “security zones” in Syria. This is truly bad and extremely dangerous idea, frightening even the Pentagon. But it is also possible that trump’s just misunderstood.

The US President Donald trump has instructed the Pentagon and the State Department to develop a plan to create “security zones” in Syria and “neighbouring regions” to “displaced Syrians could wait in a safe situation.” This order is embedded in a larger document – a presidential decree on the reduction of the reception of refugees and immigrants in the United States, but has no specifics. It was not agreed nor Damascus, nor with Russia, and looks suspiciously like the steps undertaken by the Clinton administration and the NATO command in Bosnia in 1993-1995.

Fear and trembling

“General “concerned about any steps that lead to the denial of access to Syria and Russia to the Syrian airspace” as this would require that the United States “entered the war against Syria and Russia”

Now the Minister of defence James Mattis and Secretary Rex Tillerson has 90 days in order to give the President a detailed practical plan for the vague offer of “bring it don’t know what”.

Barack Obama some time ago announced a similar plan that allowed a number of English-speaking commentators say that trump wants the power key to bring up the practical implementation of those plans, which have weak Obama didn’t have the guts. At first glance, the way it looks, but in fact is a completely different story.

First, Obama proposed to impose a no-fly zone over part of Syria when the Russian group, and there was no trace. Secondly, this would have either to drag to the middle East air defense systems of medium or long-range or spur of the moment to enter the patrol Syrian airspace as it was at the time with Iraq. The Pentagon began to explain to President Obama that such a scenario is fraught with losses from the air defense forces of Syria, which have become obsolete, but still present. While Obama pondered in Syria were Russian planes, and the Pentagon went on the way of this plan an anti-tank hedgehog. The military also spoke strongly against the fact that Syria had sent large military contingents, to be able to control a relatively large towns or refugee camps – possible “security zone” on the ground. This idea was perceived as a retraction of the US army in the civil war in Syria, and similar wording refers to the psychological trauma of the Vietnam war and was operated politically unacceptable.

In response to the initiative of trump the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov said: “With the Russian side and our partners were not consulted. This is a sovereign decision. It is important that it does not aggravate the situation of refugees. Apparently, it was necessary to calculate all the possible consequences.” Meanwhile, it is difficult to calculate the consequences of the decision, which even in itself is designed in the form of vague generalities.

American diplomatic and military sources in his comments, is also pushing the fact that no specifics and “no create method” of “security zones” in the decree of the President of trump is not spelled out. On the one hand, this provides freedom of choice and intellectual research and career development. On the other hand, the notorious “bring it don’t know what” usually ends a career collapse. And some actors that combination is already frightened is not a joke.

So, the Chairman of the joint chiefs of staff (our chief of staff) marine General Joseph Dunford said that he was “concerned about any steps that lead to the denial of access to Syria and Russia to the Syrian airspace” as this would require that the United States “entered the war against Syria and Russia.” And this man says, is the most significant statement which (he chairs the Committee of staff just a year and a half) to our address was: “Russia is the biggest threat to our national security” – and who stood firm for the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine. It turns out, trump Marines crossed so that the risk they are no longer willing.

At the same time, based on formal logic, embeddedness orders on the “security zone in Syria” in General “anti-immigrant” decree somewhat narrows its scope, and (theoretically) able to clarify something. It turns out, the Pentagon and the state Department should think about creating certain camps in Syria and around it (in Iraq? Turkey? Jordan or Lebanon that is – God forbid?), in whom it is possible to raise the potential of Syrian refugees and “displaced persons” (used this word, borrowed from the lexicon of the Second world war – displaced persons included in the history of Europe as a DP), so they sat there until the end of the civil war or other positive outcome, not even trying to reach Europe or the United States.

But then it’s not “security zone” and concentration camps. Location “in Syria” suggests that it is possible to close completely even in some localities there is not one release, but to let all the suffering. “Security” is understood here as a protection or defence of the camps and settlements of the American army forces on the ground and in the air. The “subject security” Syrians to ask them about their future plans in life no one is going.

Ashes Of Srebrenica

President trump in the first days of his term churns out iconic decrees with such speed and in such numbers that it suggests in advance the workpieces. Some part of all this creativity was founded on the basis of already existing experience, just podrihtovali in accordance with the new realities. At least something suspiciously similar to these vague wording in recent history has been.

Who is friends with whom and fighting in Syria and Iraq, “safety Zones for the civilian population” the administration of President bill Clinton came up with in 1993 to protect the Muslim population of Eastern Bosna, imposing this formulation of the United Nations. After that, a few settlements and communities, including the notorious Srebrenica and Zepa were declared “security zones”, where to place armed peacekeepers. It was assumed that a battalion of Dutch Marines (600 people) will protect frustration in these cities the population indiscriminately, Zepa, which, in contrast to Srebrenica, was for the Serbs military value (there threatened the headquarters of the army of Republika Srpska at Han-Pijesak), and is guarded 76 Ukrainian soldiers. The Serbian side, by the way, went to the agreement in the first place due to the fact that the international negotiators promised to disarm the 28th Bosnian division, but no one was going to do, and Bosnian soldiers, under the guise of refugees, began to break out of the encirclement. In the columns from 20 thousand refugees were up to 5 thousand armed men. To skip the “civilians” the Serbs did not want – it would mean releasing to Tuzla without loss of the 28th Muslim division for the six months raced across the wooded mountains.

How it all ended, we know. Since then, the phrase “zone of safety for the civilian population” has acquired a negative narrative, try not to use it. But the current threat to the American administration is not sad memories, and the dangers of playing on earth is only what happened in Bosnia.

So far, the administration trump uses the data that it delivers the old part of CIA analysts, Pentagon, and other agencies. And if the Pentagon is strongly opposed to the introduction of additional ground contingent of the US army into Syria, the CIA has always lobbied for it this way. Langley may offer to declare any locality in the border area suitable for the creation of “security zones” and begin to lobby for this location in the order of execution of the decree of the President of the trump. Candidates are in the province of Deraa and possibly on the Lebanese border. A similar scenario was when the international coalition demanded the creation of humanitarian corridors to several settlements on the Lebanese border, which was under the control of the jihadists, citing the blockade by the government troops. Compromise has traditionally been found as a result of the exchange: Damascus has made a “mirror” of humanitarian convoys in besieged by jihadists Shiite towns North of Hama.

This is a very dangerous path, regardless of what the purpose of the tramp by his order. Trading on the territorial division, which should be based on the current military dispositions and on a religious-ethnic principle, one of obedinitelej the foundations of peace negotiations, although the public is not declared. And not to be declared at least until the moment when the Syrian opposition will stop to reject the new draft Constitution, developed by Russian experts (the opposition to such nonsense as offer their own version of the Constitution, are not concerned). And to pull out of this monstrously complex negotiation process some localities, to plant there a company of Marines with small arms – a dangerous mistake. The sad fate of several groups of Rangers in Syrian Kurdistan is evidence of it.

To create on the territory of third countries and transit camps for refugees so they ran to Europe, too little too late. All who wanted, already gone, new wave is not expected even in the event of renewed large-scale fighting in Idlib province. If we are talking about the population of Raqqa, which on the whole supports the lifestyle, which in practice implements LIH* to run away they just don’t have time.

Plan competition plans

Apart from this, it is very possible that there is no practical essence of the decree of the President of trump is not filled and is waiting for us “competition projects”, which corresponds well to the methods of big business. But this idea is already interested in those who have it just at hand, – the Turks. The press Secretary of the Ministry of foreign Affairs Huseyin Muftuoglu has expressed in that spirit that “security zone” is that Turkey has long championed”. “The best example is Dzharablus,” added Muftuoglu.

Recall that Turkey invaded Syria in August last year, citing his behavior by the creation of “one hundred km security zone” from which ousted the jihadists, but, first and foremost, the Kurds, against whom all this “shield of the Euphrates” and was sent. Now the Turks have declared the captured territory with the city Dzharablus “de facto security zone” (they use this exact wording) and started training so-called Syrian police, composed of Turkomans and Turkmen, which “will be given control”. But this, again, is not “security zone”, and pure aggression, accompanied by the attempt to create a puppet government and the puppet police in the occupied territories. The situation around the El-Baba will only exacerbate this conflict in the near future.

Of course, in 90 days, we in any case understand what is really meant, the President trump “security zones” for Syrian civilians. But until we are left with far more questions than logical answers. Surrounded by trump seems to be not noticed by the characters from the team of bill Clinton, and I hope that the idea has not migrated from Bosnia 1993-1995. If some of the speechwriters trump was the “eggheads” who have used the experience of the Bosnian war (which is itself negative, and to the Syrian reality does not move), then this idea is likely to block the Pentagon.

Another thing is that the new command of the American army is not so brilliant, as they say. To General Mattis had a lot of questions about his behavior in Afghanistan (in particular, widely known story, when he refused to send help to wounded Marines) and Iraq, where he was too zealous in its public image during the sad siege of Fallujah. Why this man more – PR or common sense, we understand during these 90 days, and may God grant us patience.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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