The UK has taken another step towards Bracito the Supreme court ordered the government to obtain parliamentary approval for the commencement of the country’s withdrawal from the European Union. But although the consent of the deputies will undoubtedly be obtained, there is high confidence that the UK really finally leave the EU. There are certain difficulties.
Although Brakcet UK residents voted more than six months ago, the negotiations about the conditions of exit from the EU is still not started. Prevented the uncertainty from those who are entitled to initiate their start, the government or the Parliament. And now the debate’s over.
“Too many circumstances against the wishes of the majority of ordinary Englishmen”
Eight of the 11 Supreme court judges upheld the decision of the High court of London ruled in November 2016 that British exit from the EU should the Parliament’s decision. When two months ago the city court issued a verdict, supporters of Breccia was very unhappy, seeing it as an attempt to delay or even stop the procedure of exit from the EU. But now, after the Supreme court decision, there’s nowhere to go. Government Theresa may was not allowed to begin negotiations on the 50th article of the Lisbon Treaty on EU, which launches the procedure of exit from the community. The government believed that can use the Royal prerogative (now the powers of the monarch head of government) – that is, the right to make and to break international agreements. However, the judge agreed that leaving the EU concerns not only international obligations, but many British laws passed over time and given the finding of the country in the European Union. And changing them – it is the right of Parliament, so he has to give the nod to Prexit.
Doubt about the outcome of the vote in Parliament, virtually no. In early December, the house of Commons approved the government’s plan to exit (there was a trick – not the very beginning of the EU negotiations and the terms of when it will be possible for them to start). Then voted 448 deputies, against – 75, provided that official negotiations will begin no later than the end of March. The government had to provide your own way – 17 Jan may announced its contents. That’s the plan now, after the court decision, and will go to Parliament, where it will be approved. And then begin negotiations with the EU – which is expected to take about two years, that is, in the fastest case, the UK will leave the Union by the end of 2018. Unless, of course, will leave. What can prevent it?
Unwillingness of the greater part of the island elite to leave the EU. Rather, the conflict between the part that wants to lead the country out of European integration and those who see the future of China in globalization. The coming to power in the United States, trump has made this opposition even stronger. Those who want to bring the country out of the EU, based on the position of the majority of ordinary people – after all, Pexit voted 52 percent, and it is primarily the indigenous British, and not Londoners. The EU acts as London and immigrants, and Scots. While understanding how exactly to leave the EU and how much it will cost, now there is none.
As you know, may have just proposed the toughest way – in which a country leaves not only a common market and customs Union. This option are satisfied and Brussels, it is Germany and other European integrators because they want the example of the UK to show that leaving the EU can only be complete in order to discourage escape others. While in Brussels want as much to punish London, making the exit price as high as possible. It is clear that the British government will defend national interests and the negotiations will be difficult – but that’s how much they really will take time?
Here much depends on the elections in other European countries. This year the skeptics would strengthen their positions in Holland, France and Germany. If they manage to come to power at least in one country – for example, in the Netherlands the process of weakening the EU will intensify. And this will accelerate negotiations with London and Breccia. In addition, the weakening of the EU will be playing the trump, so the integration would have a truly difficult year.
But it is clear that in any case they will survive, the EU will not collapse in 2017. Moreover, the integration-Atlanticists go to the counter – relying on the forces on the island who oppose Breccia. That is primarily on the city (financial center of the world) and Scotland. And while there will be negotiations between the British government and the European Commission on the conditions of Breccia, in the UK, events may occur that change the balance of power.
It may be, first, the early parliamentary elections. The next is scheduled for 2020, but the current balance of power in Parliament does not meet the reality that has emerged after the referendum on Brexia. The house of Commons were elected in 2015, and the referendum passed in 2016 – but the Parliament was originally dominated by opponents of the country’s withdrawal from the EU (and the only party wholly agitating for secession, the independence Party of the United Kingdom, represented by one Deputy). They are now the majority there is a considerable part of the ruling conservatives did not want Brexia, but after the referendum had to vote in support of it, in order not to lose the trust of voters.
While the party fulfilled its promise to carry out “the will of the people”, but disagreements within the party can lead to its split. Difficult situation in the main opposition party, labour – she campaigned for it to stay in the EU, but now also forced to vote for secession.
Against Breccia in Parliament only the liberal Democrats (who have eight seats) and Scottish nationalists (they have 56) and it is clear that their votes will not be enough for the breakdown of negotiations with the EU. But if the negotiations will be difficult for London – and this it is impossible to doubt in the ranks of the conservatives can be split. Tremble and part of labour – and then a vote of no confidence in the government may can become a reality. Which will lead to early elections, which can defeat the Pro EU labour party in Alliance with the liberal Democrats. Or the part of conservatives who will insist on preservation of the country in the Union.
A change of government will not result in a waiver of the results of the referendum on Brexia, but can lead to the fact that the new government will choose the soft way, will prolong negotiations. Yes, and in this case, the EU can go forward. Especially if both need for the sake of the Union to share power with other capitals, such as Paris.
It is clear that in this case euroization the elites are playing with fire. After all, when it comes to people that they will ignore the British will be even harder to vote for the independence Party – and so won the elections to the European Parliament, but due to the absence in the UK of voting by party lists on parliamentary elections has received in the house of Commons only one Deputy. However, to become the ruling party Faraj still can not – it does not have the required number of prominent politicians to win districts.
But to stop Brest can try another way – a referendum on Scottish independence. In 2014, supporters of her office lost out to those who advocated the preservation of the unity of the island, more than 10 percent of the vote – and then it was that in the next couple of decades, a new referendum will not be held. But Breaksit changes everything, because two-thirds of Scots voted against leaving the EU. In Edinburgh has said that “if the British government would not listen to the people of Scotland, may be another vote on the question of independence. The referendum probably will be held sometime between March 2017 to March 2019”. If the UK leaves the EU, Scotland out of Britain – the threat of the collapse of the country will become more than real.
And that against Breccia categorically city, the financial center of not only the UK but all over the world, and can not speak. In addition, all understand that without the UK the EU will become more and more German project that does not suit the Atlanticists in Brussels and the United States. Victory trump and vote on Brexia perceived global Anglo-Saxon elite as a temporary defeat and not as a reason for rejection of globalization.
So too many circumstances against the implementation of the simple desire of the British to reclaim their country from the EU. However, if the trend started by PACSICOM and picked up by trump, will continue to develop in the West on the rise – Britain really leave the European Union in the next couple of years.