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Sunday, February 18, 2018

Trump is in danger of becoming President, is heavily dependent on the CIA

Trump was again in the center loud “stylistic scandal”, this time between him and the former CIA Director, had just left the office. The occasion was the presentation of the trump in Langley, but the problem is that the President is now very important to find exploration a common language. Otherwise, in the framework of their joint work Trump will depart the role of master.

Former CIA Director, John Brennan, who retired from his post in connection with the relocation of Donald trump in the White house, through its spokesman, nick Shapiro told the whole world about the new US President next: trump showed “a disgusting self-aggrandizement” and he should be ashamed. The reason – the visit of the new President in the headquarters of the Central intelligence Agency in Langley, where he, among other things, visited the memorial to the intelligence officers killed in the line. “Brennan is deeply saddened and angry,” said Shapiro.

“In the early 90-ies a very nice man tight drunk a month and a half reading the phone book one of the post-Soviet capitals backwards”

Such harsh statements in the address of the incumbent President is highly unusual for a senior scout, had just left the service.

In response, a senior adviser to trump Kellian Conway on TV channel ABC said: “I think we’ll need to take a step back breath and think about what the words”.

Formally, the problem is that trump has made a fifteen minute speech to the employees of the Central apparatus of the CIA in the background of the famous memorial wall where stars are marked dead in the performance of the employees of American intelligence. His arrival at Langley was not something planned or required. On the contrary, far more logical for the new President would be to visit the CIA after the appointment of a new Director, in order to present it to the staff. Now candidate Mike Pompeo with difficulty pushed through the Senate, with most of the complaints are not caused by his political views and not even a lack of any experience in the intelligence field, and the statement about the use of torture and other forms of pressure to suspected terrorists. Not all senators agree that the CIA, according to Pompeo, in such cases, has the right to use prohibited methods “interviewing”.

However, without waiting for the approval of the legislators, trump Pompeo brought with him to Langley. A substantial part of the speech of the President was reduced to the support of Pompeo’s position on the use of illegal methods of investigation, because “we don’t use all the opportunities that we have.” While trump has expressed its full support for the American intelligence community “by 1000%”. This support has been uttered a few times to obsession.

The rest – and a large part of trump’s speech was purely political. He criticized the “unfair media” and promised not to interfere in the investigation of the CIA about “Russian hackers” and other horrors that now filled the information space. Here we must understand that the CIA by law can not engage in investigations on US territory is the prerogative of the FBI. However, a variety of legal tactics allow WHE to play an independent political role in that exploration in other countries and close have not admitted.

Partly trump is right when it breaks down in criticism of the American media, which cling to every sneeze and every myth, if he is the 45th President in a no-win light. What is the spread of fake information about what trump has demanded to remove from the Oval office the bust of Martin Luther king. This kind of provocation will lead to anger and less emotional person than Donald trump. And the CIA, of course, just caught him by the arm. But the problem is that the relationship of the new President with the intelligence community at risk of becoming the most complex in the history of the CIA. Something similar happened with the President Kennedy, but that, on the contrary, put too much faith in intelligence, which eventually chose to turn political power in the country as she pleases. With trump, this will not take place, but it has to push in order to accept uncritically any data provided by the CIA. But several prominent Democrats urge the President to “sit opposite” and “listen to the arguments about Russian interference in the electoral process.”

That is to trump them on the fight against terrorism, and they answered – about the Russian hackers. It is reported that the President’s speech at Langley was accompanied by laughter and applause. Outside the context of this laughter is difficult to estimate correctly, but the CIA is not a Madonna and Robert De Niro, they are not prone to public display of emotions and to street mobs. They are more likely to pick a plot, write a few angry letters for the internal distribution, but will never show a lack of loyalty towards the President. In the end, I don’t want to work on a new President – no one keeps.

The Exodus of professionals from the CIA, too, is hardly possible. Another thing, how to assess the professionalism of several waves of administrative shake-UPS and personnel mess. The American intelligence community more of their own problems, rather than bringing the election campaign. For example, it is not clear what to do with a wide layer of ex-military (especially Marines) that dominated in purely civilian organization the last ten years. Trump can comprehend “complex Obama” when purely civilian, received the rank of Supreme commander, begins to relate to people in uniform and beautiful form with excessive reverence, and the CIA, though, and go to civilians who covered the excessive veil of masculinity. And the mechanism of interaction between the White house and Langley is that the role of analysts is hardly visible. Specialists for briefings in the administration rarely is a worldwide trouble, since neither intelligence officials nor the officials of the Executive authorities do not wish to see among themselves some extra padding, and even intellectually gifted.

While all of the annoying need to keep a lot of politically correct rules. Indoctrination of the CIA had almost led to the loss of professionalism, and then there’s Donald trump, from whom it is not clear what to expect, that there is only one opinion of the U.S. around the world. Scouts are not ambassadors, administrative sabre-stroke to shake up residency not succeed – officers under diplomatic cover directly to the Department of state did not obey. But can passion prevail to so-called covert operations with a limited use of force is another psychological trap for people falling within the Executive power without appropriate background. They tend to think that the world really is managed with the cunning operations of undercover agents who have a gun in my pocket, and in a wristwatch – the vial of poison. In this picture world of space for analytical work. The reference to “the source” becomes a universal key lock pick, and none of the decision makers, not to test how reliable this source is and whether it exists at all. Are countless examples where fundamental political decisions are made on the basis of falsified intelligence. And the risk that CIA employees of middle level decides if not to manipulate the new administration, at least a little to adjust, is very large.

If trump and his team want to avoid this risk (and they probably want to, just keep quiet), they will have to fall in love with the Central office of the CIA. It is a different technology than the TV debates. Maybe it will take half of the presidential term, unless there is something out of the ordinary. But now there are doubts that the candidate Mike Pompeo suitable for this role. Because Langley is not the Grand Inquisitor appointed, and he is not Hercules in the stables, and officials who will need to spend a lot of time on routine paperwork. Many people broke it on the that came to explore, the expected chases and exciting recruitments and saw a stapler and bureaucratic reports on meaningless encounters. In the early 90-ies a very nice man tight drunk a month and a half reading the phone book one of the post-Soviet capitals backwards – about a wanted person is nothing but the old phone numbers was not known. And it is also exploring, among other things.

It is too early to judge whether speech trump the CIA was successful or “contrary to rumors”. And we must understand that the future will largely depend not on the personal charm of the President, and in what direction will turn its foreign policy vector. Over the past few decades, even if we consider all the personnel shuffling, in the us intelligence community formed a class of professionals who sincerely believe that they are the light of democracy to the backward tribes. The idea that U.S. national interests can be formulated more isolationist, able to destroy their view of the world and their role in it. And it can be terrible that the “pension shock”, which has befallen Western intelligence after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Not that they immediately went racing and went to taste the rum in Jamaica, but the psychological climate within the team has changed in a negative direction. This is what happens when your business has grown to the ceiling when clear goals are already there, and a large number of hands are required.

But it’s overall good, because offended and disappointed the spy is not necessarily a lonely alcoholic. It’s mostly “men on edge” that remains is to find the right approach. And if the intelligence system of the CIA a year suddenly will fall, the blame will not “Russian hackers”, and the fate and Mike Pompeo as Supreme arbiter in one particular building in Virginia.


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