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Wednesday, February 14, 2018

To resurrect the “big eight” can not be anyone else


Trump has not yet become President, and some Europeans are fleeing ahead of the engine, trying to anticipate the new configuration in the triangle USA – EU – Russia. Supporters of the restoration of relations with Russia is even trying to achieve the revival of the “big eight”. But history cannot be reversed – Moscow will never return to the club of Western countries, from which she was expelled.

On Wednesday in Berlin hosted Italian Prime Minister, and among other things during his talks with German Chancellor discussed the upcoming this year in the two countries are important international summits. At the end of may in the Italian city of Taormina will host the G7 summit in July, Germany will host the G20.

“The Italian government is seriously considering the possibility of participation in the summit of Russia and return to the G8 format”

“Yesterday, during their meeting, Angela Merkel and Paolo Gentiloni agreed to coordinate efforts in the organisation of summits and the policy that should be carried out on them,” writes Corriere della Sera. Banal routine? But the interesting thing was what did not be announced officially, but what Italian newspaper – “the Italian government is seriously considering the possibility of participation in the summit of Russia and return to the G8 format”.

Moreover, this question was not included in the official agenda of the meeting Merkel and Gentiloni, “to demonstrate the existing differences” – Germany was opposed to the Italian ideas. As Corriere della Sera wrote that “Merkel is seriously concerned with trump’s statements regarding a possible change of relations with Russia, as Vladimir Putin’s invitation to the summit would have meant the recognition that the policy of sanctions against Russia in connection with the Ukrainian crisis doesn’t make sense anymore”. Deciding not to voice their differences, “Berlin and Rome decided to postpone the discussion of this question until that moment, trump will make the first steps” – that is, it is clear that after a week or two the topic of intensive care unit G8 will again sound on the West.

Ran it this time, even the Italians – the Minister of foreign Affairs of Italy Angelino Alfano on the eve of the New year said the possibility of Russia’s return to the “big eight”, and then repeated the same idea is January 10 in new York during his visit to the UN:

“We should expect the return of Russia in the G8, but we still don’t know whether it is possible to implement it by may”.

At these words the Minister was asked to respond to the Kremlin press Secretary of the President said last Saturday that “the topic could not be discussed in Moscow.” Answering the question would have accepted Moscow’s invitation to return to the G8 format, if such a request were made, Peskov stressed that the priority for Russia is to participate in the “big twenty”:

“We never heard the statements of the heads of state who continue to gather in the format of “seven”, any statement which would izyaslavs intention to invite Russia or other countries. As for Russia, regardless of any eventual proposals and invitations for Russia, the priority is the participation in the format of “twenty”, it has repeatedly been said by the President of the Russian Federation”.

It would seem that quite an exhaustive review – although the Sands this time and not said a categorical “no”, and Sergey Lavrov, and Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly said that the train left. For discussion of international problems has the format “the big twenty” – and he is quite happy with Russia. However, according to information on the negotiations and Merkel Gentiloni, the Italians do not consider that Russia has finally buried the “big eight” – and is ready to revive her. And Rome openly forcing events – in the sense that even if we proceed from the logic, according to which Moscow simply “throwing his weight around” and wants to be a long and tedious asked to go back, to begin with, even before the invitation to return, you need to at least begin to exit the sanctions wars.

The EU in particular and the West in General needs to show your spirit for the restoration of the relationship – then to start a conversation about returning to frozen their formats (and “eight”, in fact, the West and drugged). That is, even based on this approach the Italians put the cart before the horse – in the EU there is no unity regarding the easing of sanctions, and they are already dreaming about the in common with Russia summits. But it is not difficult to guess why they do it.

There are two motives. First, Italy really really wants to restore full relations with Russia – there is generally no serious proponents of sanctions. That is, for the sake of formality officials say about Atlantic solidarity, the Minsk process and other things, but in reality the politicians and the business community want to forget as a bad dream this whole conflict with Russia. Which doesn’t Italy start, but for which it is now, given the huge amount of ties with Russia, the rap almost.

However, the Italy to ease sanctions could not – she needs to do this, the EU’s decision, which blocked the primarily UK and Germany. London fell from the European pipe, left Berlin – which Rome now appeals, urging them to begin the process of reconciliation with Russia. Berlin, during the year lost two major Zamperini policy of containment of Russia – England after Brexia away, but in Washington even comes to power trump suddenly finds himself in the role of main opposition in Moscow. It is in the German elite, many people do not want to be not only a standard-bearer of the anti-Russian campaign, but to participate in it. So the Italians will appeal not only to Merkel…

The second motive is also in the mind – a unified Europe did not understand what to do with the United States. The problem is not just that Washington, Trabelsi Europe in its policy of “containment of Russia”, is now with her to get out – trump is not is responsible not only for Obama but also for the neocons and Atlanticist in General. So also there is a serious reason to believe that trump doesn’t just want to pass on to the Europeans of the American spending on NATO, but will play if not in split, the weakening of the EU – then there will be threat to the Old world character.

In these conditions, Russia could become a counterweight to the “new USA” – that is, Europe will draw Moscow into the ranks of Western countries. In fact the Russian before themselves all the time told us that we are with them are part of one big Europe, from Lisbon to the Urals – and so let us together again in the “big eight” to discuss our common problems.

In any case, the Italian attempt to knock Russia “the invitation” speaks more to what is happening in Europe processes than about the Russian plans. Because Russia will never return to the format of “big eight” – he died in 2014 and never resumes.

Due to the impossibility of returning Russia to the old mechanism of relations with the West is very simple – there is no longer the geopolitical reality in which this was possible. No one in Russia – and very soon there will not be the West. Russia is not just deployed to the East – it is aware of itself as a Eurasian country, independent and self-sufficient. We are not against to establish normal relations with other members of the former “big eight” – and the European Union (i.e. Germany, France and Italy) and the United States, and Japan, and even Britain with its Canada. But that’s just not unified with the West as such – because we will not listen to his dictates, and because this very “West” as a whole ceases to exist. While we in the format “the big twenty” to communicate – as a multilateral format for us he is more than satisfied, and China don’t suspect that we are behind his back about something with the West agree.

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