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Thursday, February 22, 2018

Americans in Astana may be unnecessary for all parties

In Moscow urged not to dramatize the decision of Iran to put Americans on the talks on Syria, the issue is not resolved. It is not ruled out that Tehran said out loud what you really want and Moscow, and Ankara. For everyone except the Syrian rebels and the hosts of the summit – the Kazakhs, the presence of the Americans will be a burden. But the expulsion of the US from negotiations is unprecedented.

In Moscow urged not to dramatize the fact that Tehran rejected the idea to invite to talks in Astana on Syria by the US. “Of course, this topic was discussed among the Cosponsors. I therefore say that dramatize the existence of some disagreements is not worth it. Cosponsors have regular contact and solve all the issues, which are available in online regime”, – said the representative of the foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova.

“It is simply easier to meet in front of Russia, Turkey and Iran problems without the US presence. In the first place in Astana will be in fact accepted the surrender of Turkey”

Russia continues contacts with our Iranian partners, including in the context of the invitation to meet in Astana representatives of the United States. “We continue our contacts with our Iranian partners, including in terms of the sentence of the topic,” – said the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov.

We will remind, at the initiative of Russia, Turkey and Iran on January 23 in Astana scheduled talks with the government of Syria with the movements of the rebels on 29 December signed an agreement on the cessation of hostilities. Full-fledged negotiations under the auspices of UN special envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura is scheduled for February 8 in Geneva.

Iran pulled the emergency brake of the peace process

Earlier, Iranian foreign Minister Javad Zarif spoke out against American involvement, which has already been suggested, Russia and Turkey. President Hassan Rouhani explained that the requirement of “non-participation of some States in the negotiations of their destructive role – the support of terrorists”. And the Secretary of the Supreme national security Council of Iran Ali Shamkhani previously recognized that “there is a probability that Americans will be invited to Astana as observers country-the mistress” that is Kazakhstan.

The split within the triangle of Moscow – Ankara – Tehran, according to “Kommersant” has made it difficult for Russia to implement its main foreign policy objectives: settling the Syrian conflict with the interests of all the key players and the normalization of relations with the United States under the new administration of Donald trump.

Orientalist Alexander Sotnichenko, commenting on the newspaper LOOK demarche to Tehran, said that Iranian ayatollahs do not see the difference between Obama and trump, as well as for American leaders unimportant difference between Rouhani and Ahmadinejad. “The confrontation between the two countries has deeper roots. After Obama successfully concluded negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, neither country has established trade relations, did not restore diplomatic. While the main U.S. ally in the middle East is Israel, and Israel remains the main enemy of Iran, neither of which even conditional reconciliation between Washington and Tehran cannot go and speeches” – believes the orientalist.

“Iran in General conference in Astana with the regional parties would be a serious breakthrough in the international arena, but their unwillingness to see where the United States is quite clear,” – said Sotnichenko.

The United States should call, but “only an observer”

The expert is clear and the desire of Moscow to make its first friendly gesture to the administration trump and invite her to the conference, which obviously was planned as regional, without the participation of the United States and the European Union. “However, without Iran, without a key player in Syria, this conference did not actually take place. The solution would be to invite the representative of the new administration as a non-participant and observer,” said orientalist.

Sotnichenko noted that now is actively discussed two versions: first, in this way Tehran responds to hostile rhetoric trump and his threats to review the results of the “nuclear deal”, and secondly, the interests of Russia and Iran in Syria is actually not quite the same. “Iran, like any other country participating in the confrontation, would like to see the Syrian government was completely his puppet. Moscow, of course, also claims the status of a main ally of Assad in Syria,” Sotnichenko says.

In addition, Iran claims to be the leader in the Islamic world. “Very many both public and private Iranian enterprises directly promote the real demographic changes in Syria. Captured some not previously belonged to the Shia Holy places, is spreading, especially among ideologically close alawites, the Shiite doctrine is kulturtregerskih policy in Syria,” he said.

Moscow and Tehran will be in Astana “surrender Erdogan”

Scientific Director of the Institute of applied Oriental and African studies, said Gafurov, in his turn, believes that the reluctance of Iran to see US in Astana should not be given much importance. In his opinion, it is a tactical ploy in all three participating countries, in fact none of them wants to see Americans in the capital of Kazakhstan. “It is simply easier to meet in front of Russia, Turkey and Iran problems without the US presence. In the first place in Astana will be in fact accepted the surrender of Turkey. The challenge that this country has set itself in the region, namely the overthrow of the Assad regime, it has not fulfilled”, – said the orientalist VIEW newspaper.

In the opinion of Gafurov in Astana Erdogan will try the most beautiful to come out of a stalemate situation for themselves, not having quarreled with the key players. “In this situation, the presence of another force in the face of unpredictable Americans is unprofitable neither to him nor to Iran, Yes, Russia. This question is not so much contempt for America as the desire to effectively carry out objectives”, – explained the expert.

As for the “atomic transactions,” which during his election campaign promised to break Donald trump, Gafurov noted that it is not only her, but the fact that Americans suddenly remembered about the desire to bind to the agreement on the Iranian nuclear power industry still question the production in Iran of missiles. However, the expert does not think that diplomats take seriously the pre-election threats trump. “Everyone is waiting until he takes office of the President, and then begin with a clean slate,” – said Gafurov.

For many participants of the negotiation process that Tehran’s decision was a surprise, recognized Director of the Center for the study of modern Iran Rajab Safarov. However, it is clearly influenced by Obama’s decision last week to extend sanctions against Iran for another year, he said. “But Tehran has fulfilled all its obligations. Resentment played a role, of course. If Americans are so hostile, the Iranians will be able to sit with them at the negotiating table?” – rhetorically asked the source.

Iran against the American presence in Astana even in the role of observers. “Now we will witness a very interesting situation: never before have Americans not expelled from the negotiation process. And now actually talking about how to ban the state to participate. It is unprecedented!” exclaimed Safarov.

“In addition, according to the Iranians, any emissary of Washington may not have the full weight, because the new American government was still being formed”, – said the Iranian newspaper VIEW. According to Safarov, Tehran wants to see him recognized, if not the leading role, then at least the second after Moscow as a full-fledged player. It is likely that the meeting in Astana is now generally lay, said Safarov.


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