American analysts from the magazine The National Interest published a new script blitzkrieg Russia in the Baltic States. If the previous similar documents predicted that the invasion will take a few days, the new – “a few hours”. According to analysts, the airborne capture of Tallinn and Riga so fast that the headquarters of NATO did not even have time to realize what was happening.
American magazine The National Interest, said on Thursday “the new York times,” decided to bet with released in February of last year, a report of the research center Rand Corporation, which is associated with the U.S. air force. The report said that Russia in case of invasion of the Baltic States are able to reach the capitals of Latvia and Estonia less than three days. The National Interest is sure that Russia can seize the capital in a few hours when sending in the Baltic States the main mass of the airborne forces.
“It will all be over”
“The authors of the material did not even bother to watch Battle of the Charter of the airborne troops, where the main stages of this operation, denoted”
According to the scenario, Russia starts rocket fire and air strikes, “which swept away the defense of the Baltic States”, and then conduct a “large-scale operation of airborne troops” and limited deployment of ground troops into Lithuania from Kaliningrad. “It will be over before the Alliance will know what’s going on,” – said in the article.
In confirmation of the scenario are the data of the International Institute for strategic studies, according to which in the past year, Estonia was 5.3 thousand troops from regular ground troops, Latvia – 4.4 thousand, and Lithuania – 6 thousand. Plus, the Estonian authorities can call upon 12 thousand from the paramilitary defense League Estonia, as in Lithuania, there are about 11.3 thousand militia fighters. In the republics on a rotational basis is a military from Western NATO countries.
“However, the likelihood that these forces will instantly assemble and lead in combat readiness, is very small – and the same applies to reservists. We also should not expect that in case of a sudden attack to the authorities of the Baltic States will manage to raise the regular ground forces – given the potential loss of the ability of governments to sustain the relationship in the first hours of the conflict”, – writes the edition, according to which the Russian soldiers are “much better trained and equipped than their potential adversary.”
Assessment of The National Interest, Russia will be able to deploy only half of the airborne troops due to the lack of transport aircraft. “Nevertheless, we must consider the possibility that Russia can land about 10 thousand troops in that case, if it uses its aircraft Il-76, which, at present, she’s 91” – said in the article.
The forecast of the magazine is based on data on the Russian exercises, which were held last year and 18 in which “participated in the airborne troops.” “In addition, in Kaliningrad currently has two infantry brigades and a brigade of Marines, the total population of 14 thousand soldiers and support which provides artillery brigade”, – writes the magazine.
As reported by the newspaper VIEW, in fact, from the beginning of 90-ies the number of troops in the Kaliningrad region declined sharply. Were there 11th army was completely disbanded. At that time it consisted of more than 90 thousand people. According to open sources, departments now in the region are insignificant and can’t even from a theoretical point of view, to pose a threat to NATO. So, part of the same Baltic fleet included only a few connections. If in 1991 it consisted of 32 submarines, and now there are only two. The number of combat aircraft in Kaliningrad has also decreased considerably.
At the beginning of 2010, according to public data, the number of ground troops in Kaliningrad defense area was 10 500 soldiers, plus 1100 of the marine corps. Also in the field was less than 500 tanks, 500 BMP and BTR, not less than 600 guns and mortars. This should, of course, add the number of sailors of the Baltic fleet, but she, too, has been drastically reduced since Soviet times.
However, the reports of the Rand Corporation still seemed the Pentagon is very serious. In the summer, her report was used by the assistant Deputy Minister of defence of the USA Michael carpenter, who at a hearing in the Senate Committee on international talked about the ability of Russia to occupy the Baltic States for 60 hours. So he justified the deployment on NATO’s Eastern flank for more us forces in the size of the armored brigade combat teams. The report responded and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, assuring that the Alliance is ready “to defend all allies against any threats, and it is also the reason why we are adapting our organization to the defense.”
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly said that NATO blows the myth of “Russian threat”. This applies in particular to countries of Central Europe, including Baltic countries. Russia has no aggressive intentions towards these countries.
Did not bother to look at the Charter
Chief editor of the magazine “Arsenal of the Fatherland” Viktor Murakhovsky told the newspaper VIEW that he is familiar with the material in The National Interest and considers that there is nothing to comment on.
“To begin with, that the output of the number of personnel from the number of soldiers participating in the exercises, is absolutely incorrect. To calculate this estimated number can be, the only thing you need to know the content of such concepts as “airborne operation”. Fantasy same authors completely unrelated to her reality, there’s nothing to comment on. The authors of the material did not even bother to look at getting airborne, where the main stages of this operation, denoted” – said the military expert.
Murakhovski noted that the authors mention as an example that the garrison Estonian Kupriyanovskaya separate infantry battalion in võru is situated just 80 km from Russian military units in the Pskov region. Analysts have concluded that the garrison will become an easy target for rockets fired from BM-30 “Smerch”, which are equipped with the Russian part. “That is, in their opinion, the Tornado will shoot exclusively from the territory of the military unit? Will probably be deployed somewhere on the parade ground between the barracks?” – he is perplexed. Besides, said a military expert, 88 km is the range still the Soviet modification of the MLRS “Smerch”. “Now the indicators have others, but some military secret,” – said murakhovski. In his opinion, the material is composed of a simple illiterate people.
“An example of a degenerative military intelligence”
A military expert from Latvia Yuri Melkonov also called the material “a Prime example of the degenerative military intelligence”. “To say that the author of the material adhered to some methodology, for example, counts the approximate number of personnel in the proposed transaction in the Baltic States, do not. It is enough just to mention that none of the maneuvers have not escalated into a full attack afterwards, – said the expert newspaper VIEW. Personally, I imagined a man sitting in my boxers on the couch and writing this “analytical” material”.
However, according to Melkumova, the publication does not makes him laugh. “In the armed forces of major NATO countries, particularly the US and Britain, there are special departments, leading the information war. Such intelligence and throw in the Network of such publications – with the aim of creating a sense of danger, insecurity, in this case – the population of the Baltic republics”, – he explained.
“This is even taught in military schools. The weak point of such, so to speak, Analytics is the fact that the authors of this stuffing hold your audience, to put it mildly, for fools” – believes the military expert.
In this case, according to Melkumova, society is prepared for another increase in the contingent of Western countries, NATO in the Baltic States, in particular the us. “In the Baltic countries and already there are people willing to meet the Americans liberators from the mythical Russian aggressors with flowers. See you tomorrow Mr Obama will take off from work, and then see what will happen next”, – concluded the expert.