For the first time in nine years the President of Moldova paid a visit to Moscow, where he announced the restoration of the “strategic partnership” between the two countries and made a number of loud statements, including the Crimea and Transnistria. But everyone understands that the success of Igor Dodon intermediate. The real battle for power will unfold in the parliamentary elections, and Moscow must help Dodon keep its popularity.
The presidents of Russia and Moldova Vladimir Putin and Igor Dodon has held on Tuesday a meeting in the Kremlin, which Putin has promised that the number of Moldovan companies that can supply products to Russia will increase.
“If Igor Dodon will have to wait for these elections on schedule, its popularity is it will not save. He should dissolve the Parliament”
“We agreed that a number of enterprises will be further checked by the relevant Russian structures, and it is almost certain that the number of companies entitled to supply products to the Russian market will increase,” – said Putin, speaking with his Moldovan counterpart on the outcome of the negotiations.
“A lot will depend on how Moldova is going to build its relations with the European Union, referring to the signed and entered into force the agreement on Association between Moldova and the European Union. For us, there are certain risks, they are similar to the risks we faced after the signing of a document between Ukraine and the European Union”, – said Putin.
According to him, “the same applies to issues related to labour migration”. “Igor (Igor Dodon) raised a question about it today in different formats. From the point of view of penetration of our territory as if unwanted items – we have threats from Moldova is much smaller than from other directions”, – said the President of the Russian Federation, assuming that it will be possible in the end to do it.
“We know the competence of the government of Moldova, the competence of the President. Some issues are not within the competence of the President in accordance with the Basic law of the country”, – said Putin. However, he said, the Russian side will work “with the government and with the President – we ready.”
Dodon, in turn, again called for the cancellation of signed the 2014 agreement with the European Union. “And I do not exclude that after the next parliamentary elections it will be the position and I will support this position – the parliamentary majority, that is, the party of socialists, I hope they will receive the parliamentary majority that the agreement will be cancelled”, – transfers its words of RIA “news”.
He suggested that Chisinau has become an observer in the Eurasian Union, and signed a framework Memorandum on cooperation: “We agreed that in the coming weeks we will begin consultations in the coming months, the Memorandum of understanding to sign.” The President also suggested the conclusion of an agreement with NATO about the fact that Moldova remains a neutral state.
“No one will take the risk of recognition of Russian Crimea”
Moldova needs to build friendly relations with neighboring Ukraine, the country now no one will take the risk of official recognition of Russian Crimea, said the Dodon. “My position has not changed, not changed and will not change,” quotes his words TASS. Earlier, Igor Dodon called for caution in the recognition of the Crimea, “but de facto this territory of Russia”.
The head of the Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots Leonid Kalashnikov (Communist party) does not exclude that Igor Dodon discussed not only enjoyable, but also complicated questions, which, however, were not included in the public sphere. He recalled that before his arrival in Moscow did not exclude the announcement of the forgiveness of Moldovans who violated the migration regime, in particular the length of stay, and “such a lot”.
According to Kalashnikov, this issue is also relevant for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – and if you follow concessions Moldova, Moscow will have to respond and other States. “I think we need to go forward – not least because the very strong dependence of the Moldovan citizens from earnings in Russia. On the other hand, we must help the President Dodon, who is clearly focused on Russia, on cooperation with the Eurasian Union,” – said Kalashnikov newspaper VIEW. He had no doubt that in General, the talks will not only be very productive, “but will show our interest to establish relations with Moldova after the intermediate success of Dodona in the elections.”
The Deputy explained that this problem can be solved with the support of the parties, mainly the socialists, who must win parliamentary elections. “There is still the issue of Transnistria. The most difficult issue that needs work too. Dodon, taking all the power, too, will be able to work with him,” recalled Kalashnikov.
The head of the Moldovan center for strategic analysis and prognosis EST-VEST Sergei Nazaria doubt that in the coming years, someone from politicians of Moldova “de jure recognize the Crimea” Russian. “But ordinary people have long recognized the Crimea, de facto, as does the Dodon” – he said the newspaper VIEW.
The analyst recalled that Moldova shares borders only with Romania and Ukraine, “therefore, to recognize the Crimea means to isolate, to block the movement”. “Crimea is not recognized even the Belarusians and Kazakhs, who are far away from Ukraine. We have almost absolute dependence on Ukraine. If they will block us, and airspace, it will be a huge blow. Even with the Romanians, we may have problems… who knows what will be the position of the trump in the Crimea. It is unknown what will be the outcome of the elections in France and Germany. Well, not Moldova to be a pioneer in this issue,” he explained.
Nevertheless Nazar is confident that Russian-Moldovan relations can develop without the solution of the Crimean issue. “What Russia is causes relations with the countries of the recognition of the Crimea?” – rhetorically he asked. “The real solution of the questions connected with the status of Transnistria, with Russia’s interests in our area – is impossible without getting Dodon parliamentary majority,” said Nazar, adding that while perhaps only “moral and political convergence” countries.
Popularity easily lost
However, the expert warns that the rating of Dodona may before the parliamentary elections to fall, and he anticipates that parliamentary elections in Moldova will be next and already this year – ahead of schedule. “If Igor Dodon will have to wait for these elections on schedule, its popularity is it will not save. It needs to dissolve Parliament, initiating before that, a national referendum about trust to the Parliament and government. This is the only real authority of Dodona. After the vote of no confidence he’s going to dismiss this government and Parliament,” – said Nazar.
The analyst doubts that, pending the adoption of such measures Moscow will contribute to the Dodon. According to him, Russia without mutual benefit not allowed to its market for Moldovan goods, and for that Chisinau should reconsider its relations with Brussels that “the only possible result of the parliamentary elections.”
“Moscow can go to meet him regarding migrant workers. Here the authority of Dodon will win”, – said the expert.
Two associations at once
As for the promises of Dodon to sign a Memorandum of cooperation with the EEU, it recognized the Deputy, contrary to the Moldovan Association agreement with the EU, however, the “Memorandum – it is therefore the Memorandum that after that it is necessary to take a number of measures, which are beyond the President Dodon”. Kalashnikov reminded that in Moldova the government creates the regulations contained in the Association agreement with the EU. “Of course, they are in conflict with the norms of our Eurasian Union. To align them, balance is a huge challenge,” he acknowledges.
The line of the real-deal not with the West, and the East will follow the Memorandum only when such an announcement will achieve the parliamentary elections and the appointment of a new government, which after him will start the normalization of relations with Russia. “To move this progressive, based on today’s capabilities,” said the MP, adding that until Dodon will not be able to fulfill both his promise to cancel the agreement with the European Union.
Meanwhile, in Chisinau the President has already tried to pull up. “The country’s foreign policy is decided by Parliament, not the head of state,” stated the ruling in Moldova Democratic party (PDM). From Dodon she demanded “not to Express a personal opinion on the foreign policy of Moldova during foreign visits, as it is established in Chisinau, by the Parliament and binding on all.”
The document stresses that “the rapprochement of Moldova with the European Union must remain the fundamental direction of foreign policy.” The democratic party opposed the intentions of the President of Dodona to cancel the Association agreement RM – EU, the statement said.
Democrats also say unrealistic Dodon intention to sign a Memorandum of cooperation with the Eurasian Union due to “the lack of real mechanisms for this and social or political support in Moldova”.
PDM promises to do everything possible to reject the initiative of Dodona “as not corresponding to the interests of the state.” At the same time, the party is still noted that “good relations with Russia is very important for Moldova to enhance trade, cooperation in the field of economy, science and security.”