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Monday, February 12, 2018

Brussels satisfied with the consent of the London divorce “fast and hard”

The British leader Theresa may showed determination, declaring that Brexit will be fast and hard. Thereby she rejected walk around the city the rumors that leaving the EU will be soft and long. The head of the European Council Donald Tusk called the decision “realistic”. However, many from the very beginning it was clear that Brussels kicked the British out of the EU only “hard” scenario, to others it was nepovadno.

The head of the Cabinet, Theresa may, on Tuesday said at London’s Lancaster house keynote speech, assuring that the UK will not remain in the European single market and the Customs Union. She put an end to speculation that London may choose a “soft” option, Brexit, de facto and partially retaining its place in the Union.

“Britain would create a dangerous precedent. In many Western countries decided that it is possible without economic losses to withdraw from the EU, simply refusing to accept the migrants”

The Prime Minister promised a complete British exit from the EU, then the creation of entirely new relationships with neighbors on the continent – from scratch. She explained that keeping Britain in the common European market will not allow London to achieve your goals, passes RIA “news”. Elements of the Customs Union of the EU, she said, could keep Britain on the conclusion of private trade agreements. Britain also intends to regain full control over its borders, that is, over migration flows.

As reported by VZGLYAD, may added that he would seek an equal partnership with the EU, but noted that the basis for cooperation will not be accepted the model already used in other countries that have free trade agreements with the EU. The Prime Minister later promised to send the final version of the agreement on Brexit to a vote in both houses of Parliament. She noted that the two-year exit from the EU, as expected, will start in March.

It is noteworthy that a few hours before the performance may stock markets in Europe declined. In addition to the ambiguity that has shrouded morning plans may, investors were worried about the forecasts of Donald trump, according to which the example Britain could be followed by other EU members. The statements may pound, in contrast, showed a record growth since 2008 Immediately after the speech, he rose against the dollar by 2.4%, Euro – by 1.5%.

“Hard to get Britain out of the EU”

Recall that a major financial capital of London was against leaving the EU – and especially against a quick exit. London was the only region of England, which voted in June in favor of maintaining the EU. Many bankers have called at least to stretch out the divorce process for five years and threatened with unemployment in their ranks. Up to 10% of the jobs in the city can be reduced if not maintained adequate access to EU markets, reported in late December by Reuters. After the defeat in the plebiscite, the bankers argued for the retention of at least full access to the EU market, but these expectations were not met.

Mei in his speech promised that he will not abandon European values. “We leave the European Union, but we are not leaving Europe,” – I quote her “Vedomosti”. According to her, London will continue to meet its obligations to European partners after the termination of the membership in the EU. She also promised that the UK will maintain cooperation with the European intelligence services.

President of center of strategic communications Dmitry Abzalov believes that the decision of Theresa may better Brussels than London. “The decision was expected. Eurosceptics in different countries are set primarily against the negative effects of EU membership, especially the necessity to accept migration flows. While nobody wants to lose the economic privileges associated with the freedom of movement of resources that gives you just the membership in the Customs Union of the EU and common European market. After completing Brexit “soft” scenario, Britain would create a dangerous precedent. In many Western countries decided that it is possible without economic losses to leave the EU simply by refusing to host the migrants,” – said the expert newspaper VIEW.

Therefore, according to Abzalov, to leave the Union, while retaining all its economic benefits, one of Britain would not be allowed. “France and Germany, which determine the course of Brussels, are interested in making the most of tough to get the UK. You need to show to the rest of the price of such a solution,” he explained. Now, according to Abzalov, the British Prime Minister you have to fight to find their economic niche and new markets.

The worst, of course, there

The growth of the pound after the speech may Abzalov considered a short-term phenomenon. “Just the market responded to the certainty – was the timeline and the specific solution. But before that the British market and the pound dipped significantly. In this case, may have sold certainty. But the economic consequences of the withdrawal of Britain from the EU will still be negative,” – said the expert.

In his opinion, to make life easier for British will Donald trump, initially greeted Brexit, but, the expert reminds, the main financial operations Britain is doing in Europe. “Economic losses can not be avoided. According to rough estimates, the UK economy will lose two to four percentage points over the next five years. But the figure may be higher,” he added.

According to Abzalov, by the end of March the government will need to push through the two chambers of Parliament is a very complicated document as the program and overall exit strategy from the EU. “Likely economic consequences of Brexit are not satisfied with the labour party, so may have to consolidate the tories” – suggested the expert. Another thing, if the Parliament will slow the exit from the EU, it will endanger the entire political system. “Because in this case we are talking about the results of a nationwide referendum”, – said Abzalov.

In turn, the head of the Center of the British researches of Institute of Europe of Elena Ananyeva sure I may still, contrary to its promises, will bring the country out of the EU gradually. “She said that some changes will happen quickly and some will take time. It is unknown what will be done fast and what slowly. Negotiations with the EU will go at least two years according to 50th article of the Treaty of Lisbon. She did not disclose the negotiating position of the Kingdom. But the fact that the country will leave the single market and the jurisdiction of the European court of justice is definitely,” Ananyeva said the newspaper VIEW.

She recalled the background to the conflict. Britain agrees with the three EU freedoms of movement of capital, goods and services. But the fourth one is the free movement of people, labour – no.

“On this fourth freedom insists Angela Merkel. Only this fourth freedom is not technical and economic nature as the others, but still social. That’s why the British voted to secede from the EU. They didn’t like labour migration”, – said the expert, adding that may, even as the interior Minister, also expressed dissatisfaction with the need to comply with the EU legislation in the field of internal Affairs.

Disunited Kingdom

As for the reaction of the opposition, they demanded a separate second referendum on the terms of the deal with the EU. “While may said that the final terms of a British exit from the EU will vote in both houses of Parliament, the leader of the liberal Democrats Tim Farron said that there should be a second referendum. But I don’t know how it could be, because it will be a multi-page document. The leader of the labour party Jeremy Corbyn warns now about the risks of a trade war with the EU,” she said.

After hearing the Prime Minister’s speech, Scotland’s first Minister Nicola Sturgeon warned that the script is “hard” release will hit the economy, in particular, will lead to falling wages. “Now it is clear that the United Kingdom is moving towards a hard Brexit, which would be economically catastrophic,” she said. Commenting on this statement, Elena Ananyeva reminds supporters of Brexit talked about the fact that in-migration contributes to lower wages. “There can be a lot of speculation. Until then, until the start of the process, to predict anything is impossible”, – it summed up.

Meanwhile in Brussels sounded from London the speech was listened to favorably. “It’s a sad process that surreal period, but at least the most realistic statement on Brexit” – quoted TASS the head of the European Council Donald Tusk.


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