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Tuesday, February 20, 2018

What are the possible shocks in the centenary year of the revolution


“A big ship that is slowly sinking.” So talking about Russia, the Chinese, better than us who made the diagnosis of our country. Smooth dive to the bottom is fraught with the fact that it was almost not to notice. Easily go from one deck to another, emptying the bar’s stocks of the liner. “Stable” does not feel discomfort.

And that’s the problem: so easy to comfort themselves with tales about “getting up off its knees” and not to see how is growing, gradually becoming insurmountable, the distance between going forward developed countries and Russia — fading like an old planet, “raw giant”. Sometimes it can even seem that the course is aligned to: here the price of oil grew up a little bit, that’s sort of inflation slowed. However, in practice, all these wave vibrations on a General downward slide is not affected by industrial growth, new industries other than raw, does not appear, the infrastructure is decaying, science and education wither, the population is aging, talented youth are not in demand. The list goes on and on.

No need to be Vanga to predict that the “new economic strategy” that we are promised by may, will be another myth. Grandmother did not go, there will be about “human capital development” (on the decline in schools, hospitals, freezing of welfare benefits), “creating a comfortable environment for business and investment” (in the background limit shakesperian entrepreneurs and reduction of demand due to poverty). About “stabilizing and reaching the bottom of the crisis” (about the bottom — I agree, not crisis, and life). About the remnants of the privatization of state assets.

There will not be about creating new industries and jobs; development of non-oil exports; the rise of science and education; the elimination of corruption and affiliated with officials of the monopolies; as for the reconstruction of the destroyed legal and social state. And if something will be, in General terms and without specifics. Imagine a kind of a “program of repair of the house” in which the most drastic measure is to move the dresser out of the room into the corridor and even mother-in-law sell silver, and you shall receive “economic strategy of Russia-2017”.

New economy Minister appointed after speaker, in his recent interview has announced the main economic “priorities”. They boil down to… the compilation of “tables of basic problems,” as if these problems now arise, and do not exist for many years. In particular, the Minister found in Russia, the poverty and the shadow economy. Based on the table the head of economic Department promised to investigate and come up with something to help sinking the country. Don’t know about you, but I was immediately reminded of the protagonist, whose dream was to “have a dream”. However, while the Ministry has a plan to make a plan, the economy continues to stagnate, and the people poorer.

The most disturbing thing is that Russia does not fit in the new global technological order, its backlog from rushing forward post-industrial countries is catastrophic. Trusted Chubais nanotechnology die without being born together with Medvedev’s “modernization.” Some new technological developments are only in the defense industry and space industry. But it is not all well — past the wreck of the space truck “Progress MC-04” is demonstrated. In General, we continue to remain a raw materials appendage of the “ideological enemy”, and every year this problem all the more clearly evident.

We lose not only time but also human capital. The old staff gone, and a new one is not preparing systemically. The quality of education is crumbling, science is commercialized, brains “funneling”. Sinking into the poverty of families is difficult to raise even two children, and it means to stop the reproduction of the nation.

The position in which we find ourselves, is stagnant, stop the development, and therefore increasing the backlog. Russia pumped up with silicone and Botox, she gets plastic surgery done and putting on makeup but she doesn’t get fresher and stronger — just like the ageless stars of the notorious new year’s TV show, which has become a marker of stagnation. It’s just a picture, mostly for domestic consumption, so how in the world about the true situation of our country only a few remained of the illusion.

What will Russia, say, after 30 years in this “stable” flooding? What the bottom, it will reach? To go under water can be long: there is the Soviet legacy, and yet unfit for sale resources. But to rise from year to year will be more difficult. And who knows, maybe one day ascent would not be feasible. The world has known many civilizations that do not fit into the pace of the story, and now they’re just a page in the textbook but picturesque ruins on the hills.

Let’s think, is there someone who is able to raise the ship “Russia” on the surface? Quick and positive answer to this question, alas, no. Became for a while a friend of Russia trump to help certainly will not come. “Own” elite and sailing in the Wake of its officials arrogate to themselves the national wealth, at the same time take root abroad.

However, if the elite and the government does not want to change anything, then maybe it will force them to people? “Magic” centenary of the revolution unwittingly pushes to reflect on the repetition of the scenario. But there is no sharp pitching, a classic revolutionary situation is not observed: the impression that and tops and bottoms at the same time don’t want drastic changes, some because they are satisfied, others because they are afraid that it will be even worse. Thus, the revolutionary anniversary yet it is expected in autumn dull and humdrum. Weather forecast: local outbreaks of popular discontent, “hungry” public consensus on the background of the steadily-slow flooding when large and fast ship.

How long, however, will this depression last? Because of the people accumulated discontent, a growing sense of hopelessness and despair. And irritants have here and the exorbitant incomes of officials and Directors of corporations, and the ostentation of the elite, and frankly blatant theft and the government’s failure to combat poverty. At some point, the fear that it will be worse, will leave simply because it will be worse than ever. All as in the classics.

Answer: exactly, and this is already happening, but so far at the regional level. Here’s a recent example: gukovskii miners from the Rostov region, half a year sitting without a paycheck, and taken to extremes, 19 Dec tried to go to Moscow to hold a rally at the government House. Their power is not released, for several days securing the city. But then, realizing the seriousness of the situation, intervened with the Federal government, and people, albeit slowly, started to pay money. Through the efforts of public activists and deputies of the state Duma from the opposition the issue of debt came to the leadership of the country, has hit the media, it has become impossible to ignore.

This case showed the effectiveness of a protest — by the way, is completely legitimate and not at all radical, but simply focused and persistent. Gukovskaya story is unique, but the initiative group now occur in many places, and, apparently, such cases will be repeated.

However, to achieve broader socio-economic changes, and broader people’s movement. And it requires honest and unbribable leaders, not populists or radicals, but the people of the state scale and the mind. This, of course, not cowards, because fighting them will be tough. That was then, and is now the main problem: people who are able to become drivers of reform, is in sight — for too long the leaders of this type were cleaned on the approaches to public policy. Or they stepped on the slippery road of compromise, was reforged from the sword in the empty oral.

But “no” now does not mean that will not appear in the future: even stripped of dissidents of the Soviet Union and countries of “people’s democracy” in crisis times, almost out of nowhere appeared the leaders; the easier it can happen in Russia, including from the same initiative groups social protests.

To provoke and accelerate the dissatisfaction can abrupt shake-up in the economy — as it was in 1990-91-m, then in 1998. These risks are creates, for example, depletion of reserve funds. On January 1, 2017, the Reserve Fund amounted to 972 billion rubles, as against 3.64 trillion RUB, the company informed. It turns out, a year spent 73% of the Fund. In addition, according to the Finance Ministry, during the same period, almost 17% and decreased the Fund of national welfare — the latter our sovereign Fund. Of course, much will depend on oil prices, plus there is also the possibility of increasing the national debt. But this is a very alarming signal for the government, especially that the attainment of debt in a weak economy could end in default.

But what about the high power ratings? Don’t they pose for her, it would seem, durable the airbag? After all, according to the latest data of “Levada-Center”, the President endorses as many as 84% of the citizens and this figure is growing all the time as if there is no crisis and poverty! Yes, indeed, sociology gives such conflicting results, largely generated by the state monopoly on electronic media. But the public mood, as history shows, can vary from surveys, and in addition, to change rather quickly. There is a risk that power will fall into the “trap Hillary Clinton”: it sociologists also drew a landslide victory in elections in the United States, but did not take into account hidden factors, in the American case, giving socially acceptable answers. In the Russian reality this situation amplified the atmosphere of fear and secrecy — our leading sociological services themselves say the high proportion of refusals to answer. So one day, when the situation, God forbid, a sudden swing, you may find that 84 percent there, and under the Windows of the disgruntled crowd. This was the case in 2011 when a rating of “tandem” very quickly sank, and then the protests began.

The result: sadness and depression, but they are not fatal. As not fatal yet, I hope, and our dive to the bottom. If the government does not want to go down in history as the crew of the Titanic, she needs to begin the conversion. Urgent recovery of the vessel, its reconstruction and accelerated movement forward.

source

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