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Friday, February 16, 2018

The sanctions Obama trump will remain as a trump card for bargaining with Russia

The extension of anti-Russian sanctions on the new year and we have become one of the farewell surprises for Russia from the outgoing President of the United States. Haven’t took office Donald trump has already declared that won’t hurry up with their cancellation, but does not exclude this possibility. Experts believe that the future occupant of the White house will keep sanctions for the forthcoming negotiations.

Barack Obama has extended for one year the decree No. 13660 of March 6, 2014, which provides for the imposition of sanctions against Russia over the situation in Crimea and Ukraine.

“Special attention to the sanctions reinforces bad form of relations, when Washington intentionally creates a threat to the partner, which then are removed in exchange for concessions”

As reported by RIA “Novosti”, the decision, the outgoing American leader substantiated the statement, saying that “the actions and policies that are answered by this decree, continue to pose unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”.

In his letter to the leaders of both chambers of the us Congress, he revealed this idea in more detail, calling as justification for a policy of “persons who undermine democratic processes and institutions in Ukraine; threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty and territorial integrity; contributing to the misappropriation of assets, as well as the actions and policies of the government of the Russian Federation, including its deliberate annexation of Crimea and use of force in Ukraine.”

On Tuesday a group of U.S. senators proposed to expand sanctions against Russia, adding to the traditional motivation concerning the Crimea and Ukraine, even “attempts to influence elections in the United States.” Proposed prohibitions and restrictions had to relate to the energy sector, those involved in the privatization of Russian assets involved in the purchase of sovereign debt of Russia, those who “undermines cybersecurity public, private infrastructure or democratic institutions,” and also collaborated with “Russian defence and intelligence sector.”

However, White house spokesman Josh earnest said that Barack Obama has not yet made a decision about that proposal, as I haven’t seen the bill itself.

It is noteworthy that in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, their attitude towards anti-Russian sanctions was expressed by the US President-elect Donald trump. He said he intends to keep them “at least for some time”, adding that it considers useful for the establishment of relations with Moscow.

“If we get along and Russia is helping us, then why to maintain the sanctions, if you can do wonderful things together,” he said.

“Americans need leverage”

Commenting on the newspaper VIEW trump’s words, a political analyst Sergei Mikheyev expressed his belief that a full lifting of sanctions by the US will never:

“Just such precedents yet was not in world politics. With the arrival of trump, you can expect cooperation with the Americans in the Syrian issue, a gradual easing of existing sanctions, but full repeal will not happen. Americans need the levers of pressure on Russia, and trump will never give up this argument in negotiations with Moscow.”

At the same time, the analyst is confident that the lifting of sanctions would not be beneficial to Russia itself, because in response to their withdrawal, the United States will require the Russian side to make concessions.

In turn, the number of representatives of the Russian political elite has managed to declare about the readiness to compromise with Washington. In particular, the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, speaking at the Gaidar forum, said that in case of warming relations with the West, Russia will not extend the counter.

“The time has come to understand that the sanctions will soon expire or contractee, at least in my work, the official said. – Me and the Minister of agriculture and Minister of the economy, most likely, must proceed from the fact that counter-sanctions will be lifted”.

Sanctions as protection

At the same time, according to Shuvalov, manufacturers should not expect that the state after the abolition of the counter-sanctions will apply some protectionist measures, although first Deputy Prime Minister suggests that this may be followed by appeal to the state Duma and regional parliaments with a request to protect domestic producers from Western goods.

Such a position Vice-a premiere has caused criticism from Russian manufacturers. In particular, on his page on the social network Facebook cheesemaker and blogger Oleg Orphan wrote the following:

“I like a man living in the shed for the second year and invested every last ruble in the cheese factory and the farm, very indignant about this. In translation into Russian language of many people who came to the production of milk and cheese will be ruined. Why? Elementary. Even if we can compete on quality, we will not be able to compete on price. The price of milk in Riga now 11-12 rubles, and we 26-34 of the ruble.” “We need to get out of the WTO and raise tariffs. Then agriculture will develop,” – concluded he.

In conversation with the newspaper LOOK President of the Institute of national strategy Mikhail Remizov also noted that while “Russia takes WTO rules as dogma, while it is necessary to replace the counter long-term protectionist measures in all sectors where Russia has its own industrial potential.”

“The question of sanctions, the Russian side would be logical in the negotiations in the United States to put aside, – he believes. Because attention to them perpetuates a failed relationship, when Washington intentionally creates a threat to the partner, which then are removed in exchange for concessions. In my opinion, the issue of us sanctions have not critical and the Russian economy got used to them. More of us at the moment not interested in this issue and the development of new forms of technology partnerships”.

Remizov also believes that trump tries to use sanctions as one of the trump cards in the negotiations with Russia.


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