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Saturday, February 24, 2018

What is behind the statements of the APU on the improvement of positions in the Donbas

The news coming out of the sides of the demarcation line in the Donbas, stated: this line is changing, and in favor of the APU. Direct confirmation – a new victim and a new position of the Ukrainians. You need to understand that the question in this case is a long-standing strategy for the future. And the prospect of this – the encirclement of Donetsk.

APU representatives claim that the Ukrainian troops in the last few days took on the debaltsevsky direction “better position” where he built engineering structures. However, evidence of breakthrough of the positions of the BCH, the Ukrainian troops there, even on the part of the Kiev propaganda: success APU has been greatly exaggerated. At the same time furnished almost the entire front in the Donbas in recent days has deteriorated.

“Defensive positions on both sides will not survive a massive fire strike even those artillery forces, which are now in reserve”

APU moved in the “gray area” on the arc svetlodarsk about one kilometer and really started equipment engineering structures to new positions. We are talking about the same area, which they tried to capture awhile ago, then suffered a defeat. But, in fact, the front line has not changed and now, despite the fact that the original purpose of the operation of the 54th brigade of the armed forces was the capture of the advanced positions of the enemy and thereby move the front line a few kilometers to the South towards debaltseve, which has really complicated the position of the BCH.

The advanced position of the BCH on this site are located on two heights – 228 and 216, a fortifications, including the famous “Fright”, but between them the whole of last year were created for more, including in the so-called Magic forest. The constant attempts of the 54th brigade of the armed forces (mainly the action) and was aimed at capturing those advanced positions. When this was not possible, despite heavy losses, the APU has started to filter “gray zone”, the apotheosis of which was the occupation of the village of Novoluganskoe. This event had a great resonance, as served not only as a “great military success”, but as a political decision: Novoluganskoe “moved” from the neutral zone on the territory of Ukraine, and the initiator of this steel to call not the command of the battalion “Azov”, and the head of the village of Konstantin Sarkisov, who allegedly asked for help from APU.

In General, the local and the repetitive battles on the arc svetlodarsk were conducted all last year, and Mat several times managed to move on a number of sensitive areas. In February of last year, one of the battalions of the same of the 54th brigade took the so-called “candy bar” – part of Avdiivka industrial zone that it was expensive and did not change anything, but the precedent was created. Each small advancement not only improved the position of APU, but also created new threats for the defense of the BCH. In particular, the lesson “promos” has allowed it to take fire control the route Donetsk–Gorlovka and road junction near Yasinovataya.

In the summer the “grey war” has moved to another dangerous area – South of Donetsk. Where the APU came almost to the outskirts of Dokuchayevsk, and this is extremely dangerous: according to the plans of the Kiev General staff planned a concentric encirclement of Donetsk, based in the South just on the area Dokuchaevsk.

In November, Mat attacked the power of BCH at a Steep Beam under the Avdeevka, December 19-22, began a large-scale attack on svetlodarsk arc with the same purpose, December 30, was attacked Novozvanivka in the area of responsibility of the LC.

From the beginning of 2017, fierce battles are conducted in the areas of Talakivka, Shirokino, Water, Pavlopol, Hnutove, Lebedinsky, Novotroitsk near Mariupol, in the area Sizova outside stanytsia Luhanska and traditionally under Avdiyivka and Zaitsev. And in the last three days has dramatically worsened the situation in the “old” section of the front in the suburbs of Donetsk airport and the neighbouring village of Spartak. There are parts of the APU 10 Jan attempted a frontal attack of positions of the BCH, using tactics flank girth small assault groups, which were quite well trained: they knew the route of his advance and divided into smaller units as output to the set position. However, the main group managed to cut and bend machine-gun fire, after which the BCH failed. By the way, the Ukrainian command is absolutely not shy to admit the daily losses, which, apparently, became a habitual background information and it makes no sense to hide.

Ukrainian military expert and media lately became popular the term “gabac skripki” – “frog jumping”. In short, this is a tactic of promotion by a small amount in grey area, with their subsequent consolidation on a new line. Her overall goal with varying degrees of success were set in front of APU all of last year and has already moved in the current, is straightening the small tactical details of the front, especially at those sites which pose a threat to the APU. From the point of view of the Ukrainian “military experts”, “to fight in this case – is not to step on Donetsk”: “to Fight is to eliminate the threat to our troops on those fronts where the enemy wedged in our defense. And this is the area Popasnaya, Svetlodarsk, Gorlovka, Avdeevka, Marinka, Sands, Dokuchaevsk, Water, Shirokino… For this army should be prepared for a real local war, which is conducted in such forests and skyscrapers. And will be for many years”.

In the framework of this logic and are the events of the last two months not only on the arc svetlodarsk, but most of the “gray zone” of the front, which stretched from the sea of Azov to the Kharkiv region more than 410 kilometers. But the fighting near Svetlodarsk more revealing and bloody than the similar events in Mariupol direction under Dokuchaevsk, in the industrial area of Avdeyevka, at Popasnaya LC and – again traditionally – the Donetsk airport and the village of Spartacus. In recent days there have been tensions in the suburbs of Donetsk, including at the Western direction of Marinka and Kurakhovo.

If the level of the clashes on the arc svetlodarsk rise sharply, it will immediately lead to increased losses. Defensive positions on both sides will not survive a massive fire strike even those artillery forces, which are now in reserve, “fulfilling the Minsk agreements”. Even now, 152nd howitzer, which actively uses the Ukrainian side managed to destroy one of the bunkers BCH Spartacus, but shelling from mortars of result do not give – the ground’s frozen, and mines bounce off it as from the asphalt. In city conditions it gives great losses among the civilian population, because mine bounces for 5-10 inches, is broken and the fragments are parallel to the surface, leaving people without legs. In the desert, when all that are in the shelters, these holes are useless.

There is every reason to assume that in the near future APU will continue to fight this “grey war”, justifying its elimination of potential threats to their own line of defense. The most dangerous is the direction of Avdiivka, where after the attack on the Steep rate of 54 brigade was to pump power (roughly – up to platoon) to the holiday village to the East of the “third Avdiivka rate”. An exemplary goal of this attack can be promotion in the General direction of Yasinovataya.

The second nasty plot remains Dokuchaevsk and General direction to the South of Donetsk. In this context, it is possible to estimate the attack on the Northern sector – airport and under Spartacus – as a distraction.

It is also necessary to pay attention to those settlements, which novoluhans’ke are technically in the “grey zone”, but the Ukrainian side for some reason thinks they “own”, a kind of interpretation of the actual application to the Minsk agreements. For example, the village Verkhnetoretskoye.

Finally, the AFU has increased its presence in the area Popasnaya and Tryokhizbenka in Luhansk direction. If all this is some kind of strategic goal, the most unpleasant outcome would be blocking or staging under fire control of the route Donetsk–Gorlovka.

Such events only at first glance look like a local exercise brigade commanders. If you leave things as they are, slowly but surely, the APU will be able to create a more favorable starting position for carrying out large-scale offensive, for example in the environment of Donetsk that they had long planned. The elimination of the advanced obstacles (such as a convenient defensive positions of the BCH on the arc svetlodarsk or difficult industrial and residential development) will allow VSU to begin detailed planning for the “big attack”.

Of course, this will not happen tomorrow and not even spring, but the trend should. It might be good to pre-empt Ukrainian attempts to impose their initiative in the “gray war” and in some areas to independently turn similar operations, and for information about tantrums and accusations of violation of ceasefire regime. There is no longer such a regime, fear God. But to lose the initiative never. Even the best of political motives.


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