The election of Donald trump, who built his campaign on criticism of the overseas adventurism and the US military presence in Europe, does not mean that the American military-industrial complex swords into plowshares. American and Russian military experts are sure that in the “isolationist” trump spending on the Pentagon will only increase. Who in the US army will benefit from the re? And should Russia start to fear?
The election of Donald trump President of the United States should give the development of the defense industry, but in the international market can be new problems, says American profile, Defense News portal.
“When trump army will keep in continuous re -“
Shares of leading defence companies has jumped from 5% to 7% the next morning after the election, and this suggests that investors are confident the Republican control of the White house and both houses of Congress will be a time of boom for the military industrial complex.
So, Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan believes that the next budget will be “at least $ 18 billion more in fiscal year 2017 than requested by the administration (of Barack Obama), plus $ 10 billion will go to investment,” he said.
Famous American military analyst Jim macalis also predicted a jump in funding, not only in the military budget, but increase spending from $ 9 billion to $ 18 billion to Fund unexpected operations abroad (Overseas Contingency Operations, OCO).
Trump is considered the isolationist, harshly criticized the last administration and his rival Hillary Clinton for excessive enthusiasm for foreign military adventures. It is well known that the President-elect urged to reduce military spending. But, as mentioned above, the American experts insist that the “hawks” from the MIC will be based at the trump. It is believed that the American “defense” win and in that case, if the European NATO partners will be expected to pay for military expenses not directly related to US (which was one of the trumps campaign rhetoric trump).
Who will win?
Military analyst Jim macalis notes: will be happy and industrial firms, arming army and Marines, since one and the other trump wants to expand.
Macalis also noted that shipbuilders and companies that provide the combat system for naval vessels, also among the “first winners”.
What can prevent it?
“The big question is, how priorities trump the defense will be agreed with his plans to reduce taxes, protect the rights and investments in infrastructure, emphasizes Lauren Thompson. These obligations inevitably restrict the extent to which it can expand investment in new military equipment.”
However, even here there is a good time for defense contractors, because trump wants to cut tax rates for profit and to support companies working in the aerospace and defense industries, he said.
However, another expert, Byron Callan, warns that the joy of the representatives of the military-industrial complex can be short, but in the long term, there are danger signs. “The President-populist may be less tolerant of cost overruns on major weapons systems, in addition, greater use of fixed price contract may entail higher risks for the sector,” he said.
In addition, Callan warned that the international market may cool off for US exports, if trump will keep some of his campaign statements.
So, NATO countries can appear to spend more on defense, but also focus investment within their countries. It can play a role in the uncertainty about the relationship between the US and Russia, and the oft-repeated statement trump that NATO partners should pay for their protection of the United States, said Callan.
Plus, if trump will continue to push for a ban on the entry of immigrant Muslims in the United States, countries in the Persian Gulf and Asia may start looking for other partners for cooperation in the field of equipment.
Military spending will not decrease
“One can say for sure: the military budget of approximately $ 600 billion, if trump is unlikely to diminish. However, its increase in States no money either,” he said in an interview with the newspaper LOOK chief editor of the magazine “Arsenal Fatherland” Victor murakhovski.
“Significant and radical changes in budget allocation and procurement between the various military companies also should not wait because the system is quite stable,” – said murakhovski. Defense companies, traditionally have their lobby in Congress and the White house are unlikely to lose their positions.
The expert adds: now when the trump won the election, it makes no sense to remember his campaign rhetoric, therefore, about how to really change the intrinsic, military, US foreign policy, we can only guess.
Promises of possible future head of the Department of state newt Gingrich on supplies to Ukraine lethal weapons, according to Murakhovsky, are rather pre-election rhetoric. “It is clear that trump will consider this issue, but to start with it will be for purely practical reasons. Especially because the elections revealed that Donald trump is a great strategist” – said the military expert.
“Clips for the Arctic” should be cheaper
The analyst, americanist Nikita Kurkin, in turn, considers it logical that when the trump of the military-industrial sector will receive significant preferences. “Besides the fact that Donald trump has promised not to continue costly military operations, he promised two things: to make the US the most powerful country in the world and punish its enemies, including the notorious “Islamic state*”. So there is no doubt that if trump military-industrial complex will receive an additional incentive,” – said the expert newspaper VIEW.
According to Kurkin, military, as well as any industrial production, while the trump preference, as it implies including jobs, orders, and injections into the real sector of the economy. Kurkin believes that the trump army will keep in continuous upgrading.
However, the expert notes that the property still has a trump to fight corruption in the American military-industrial complex, but it is there sometimes reaches monstrous proportions. “At least remember the story about the clips for the Arctic, when a huge amount of money was allocated for the development of special clips designed for use at very low temperatures. For the needs of the Pentagon was then manufactured special silver-plated clips. The relevant committees of the Congress and Senate trying to see how real money is spent in the Pentagon, but all to no avail. Even if trump intends to end corruption in the US army, is a swamp, which is not easy to dry”, – said the americanist.
Foreign policy of the United States after the election trump, including regarding the supply of weapons to certain countries (in particular Ukraine), depends, according to Kurkin, from two things: who will occupy key positions in the national security Council, state Department, the Ministry of defence and, secondly, how it will be able to build relationships Trump and Putin. The “old Republicans have always been negatively disposed towards Russia, but will the trump turn around his “hawks” or not give, depends, how will develop Russian-American relations”, – the expert believes.
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”