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Saturday, February 17, 2018

About the new world order Trump and Tillerson will have to negotiate with Moscow and Beijing


As part of the briefing in the Senate, the future Secretary Rex Tillerson is hardly accidental compared China and Russia, likening the construction of Islands in the South China sea, the annexation of Crimea. Such a tough Secretary of state, even senators like Russophobia, but the policies he will pursue realistic and, therefore, it is able to negotiate with Moscow.

The choice of a trump candidacy Rex Tillerson to the post of Secretary of state a month ago seemed unlikely, and when the rumors still confirmed, I started reasoning about what the head of ExxonMobil will be very difficult to get Senate approval because of his “friendship with Putin.”

“In relations with Moscow Tillerson will be tough and cynical negotiator”

But on Wednesday, cavalier of the Russian order of Friendship was questioned at the hearings in the Senate – and all were satisfied. The Wall Street Journal in an editorial says that “the Senate must approve the nomination Tillerson,” but without the sanction of one of the most influential Newspapers United States, it is clear that a multimillionaire approved. He told the senators what you need – not very truthfully. Among the written recommendations was the main opponent of trump, Ted Cruz, and among attacking him with questions – Senator Marco Rubio. Tillerson declined to agree with the words of Rubio that Vladimir Putin is a war criminal – but it should be noted that so would make any candidate to the secretaries of state, whether they even Senator McCain. But on the subject of Ukraine Tillerson told the senators what they wanted to hear.

So, he said that if he was Secretary of state in March 2014, it would act “decisively” – gave Ukraine access to intelligence information about the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border, recommended Kiev to strengthen military forces in the region. Not very clear, however, what is the determination but the senators liked. Needed a proportional show of force that Russia realized that to capture new territories will not work, said Tillerson – “I think the Russian leadership would understand power response”. Answering the question about the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine, the candidate said he “hopes the ceasefire will work,” but “without him, we will be important to support the Ukrainians,” and then he would have supported such transfers (although the decision itself must be made “during the discussion in the framework of the national security Council with the involvement of other agencies”).

Responding to a question about whether he believed that “the United States should never recognize the legitimacy of the annexation of Crimea, as it was with the Baltic republics,” Tillerson said, “the only way in which this is possible is a broader agreement that respects the interests of the Ukrainian people. Without it we should never recognize.”

In General, the Tillerson’s position on Ukraine is clear – the administration of the tramp, of course, not going to quarrel with the Congress of Ukrainian topics. Attempts to negotiate with Moscow trump and Tillerson will be taken so as to leave Kiev and the Capitol. That is, first, Putin and trump agree on the principles of cooperation – and then the Kiev government and Senator McCain are outraged by the change.

Similarly, it was soothing and Atlanticists – “our NATO allies are right when they Express concern for Russia,” but, like I said trump, Obama is to blame because “this happened in the absence of American leadership, these doors were left open, and unintended signals have been sent”.

What Tillerson said about Russia at the hearings, completely coincides with the opinion of trump – and with the position of the “realists” (whose symbol is Kissinger) as such:

“While Russia seeking respect on the world stage, her recent actions have ignored American interests. Russia should know that we are responsible to our obligations and our allies, and Russia must answer for their actions…

Russia is a danger, but it is not unpredictable in the pursuit of its own interests… We need an open and honest dialogue with Russia about its ambitions – so that we know how to plan our own course…

The fact that Russian is a very strategic thinking, they always have a plan. If you look from the side, to understand their long-term motivation, you will notice that they follow a certain course.”

If we add to this key tenet of the concept Tillerson – “we must consider the world as it is” – it is clear that the new administration will do what Putin wants: to have an honest and Frank conversation. Without trying to interfere in the internal Affairs (as did Biden in a conversation with Putin in 2011), without cheating (as did Obama in 2014 after the coup in Kiev), without arrogance and feelings of self-exclusiveness.

Yes, Tillerson said he believes States are the world’s only superpower with a “moral compass” for the whole world – but it was said to calm the senators. New Secretary of state wholly realist – also well familiar with Russian to understand (unlike Obama, Biden, Clinton and the absolute majority of the American elite), how ridiculous for us the reasoning of Americans about their moral superiority. In relations with Moscow Tillerson will be tough and cynical negotiator – but neither Putin nor Lavrov and do not expect anything else.

In short, the expectation of Russia from the new administration is very simple – let’s discuss your and our interests, to argue, to seek, to compete, to intrigue, to quarrel, to negotiate, to fight. Only now, without reading a lecture – even if it is not a tete-a-tete, and from high tribunes, without attempts to present themselves as “defenders of the faith” at a time when everyone understands that you just go to plunder Constantinople. If trump and Tillerson will also defend primarily national interests of the United States, and not try to save the plan of the Atlantic globalization, beneficial only to supranational forces, then Moscow certainly will be pleased with the changes in Washington.

In the Kremlin and in Russia in General there are no high expectations from trump – I mean, who put in a word that us that the Russian globalists. Putin knows Tillerson, well imagine the character of a tramp – and, contrary to what he thinks living in his own world near McCain or Rubio, even thought does not allow of the possibility of manipulating the new leaders of the United States. And certainly not waiting for any concessions from the United States – as, indeed, not going to do them myself.

Putin will not stop any struggle for Ukraine, no work on the construction of a new, post-American world order, no rapprochement with China – but it will be much more interesting to deal with those who puts before itself the same as it, problem. The task of strengthening their state – and trump and Tillerson will do just that, in contrast to the last several administrations, carrying out more and more globalist functions.

Of course, between Washington and Moscow will remain a struggle, contradictions, and in certain areas and conflicts – but it will be just a conflict between two equal (not by weight, relative to each other) forces. It is this attitude as equal between the two countries in 40-80 years – with all that the most of this time it was against an equal opponent, not a partner. The only time the mutual recognition of each other led to the hints at the beginning of an equal partnership was in the early 70s – when so respected a tramp Nixon. In fact, those times were and Henry Kissinger – which now can be kind of the mastermind behind the new foreign policy course of the 45th President of the United States.

It is important that the new Kissinger, that is, Tillerson, quickly realized the impossibility to play the “triangle Henry” in the current reality – the attempt to negotiate with Moscow at the expense of Beijing if Washington will try to take will end in complete failure.

At the hearings in Congress Tillerson was quite harsh towards China. He not only said Beijing cannot be called a “reliable partner”, but said the need to send a “clear signal”: we need to stop nasypany Islands in the South China sea and to go with an already built Islands.

Given that in Washington, of course, understand that China will never withdraw from the occupied Islands, and, most of all, realize that there is no way to force him to be from the claims the entire South China sea, such statements can be characterized as empty and ritualistic. Most likely, the way it is – and then completely different looks and loudest of said Tillerson to the Senate:

“In my opinion, the construction of Islands in the South China sea and the deployment of military assets on the Islands comparable with the annexation of Crimea by Russia”.

That is not a warning that Washington may in the future be entered against Beijing’s sanctions – but rather a statement of the irreversibility of what is happening. Indeed, no stopping China in its offshore seas, or to restrain Russia in the post-Soviet space USA. Better to admit the obvious and agree “on three,” about a new, sustainable world order. Trump and Tillerson has serious possibilities.

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