The British foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has taken control of the negotiations on the fate of Cyprus, once a British colony. It is expected that the record-long talks on the reunification of the Turkish and Greek parts of the island will be a significant breakthrough. The West suddenly demonstrates an understanding of the interests of all parties to the conflict: in particular, Ankara, supporting Turkish Cypriot military force, does not threaten any sanctions.
London is going to tackle negotiations on the reunification of the Turkish and Greek parts of Cyprus. The foreign Ministers of the three countries-guarantors – Britain, Greece and Turkey on Thursday to join the talks in Geneva, told The Guardian.
“We hope to complete tomorrow… This is the last chance”
At a landmark meeting, which, as all expect, should reach the “moment of truth”, has already left British foreign Minister, Boris Johnson. In addition, the talks will be attended by observers from the EU, including European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and foreign Minister Federica Mogherini. Source Agency reported that Geneva intends to go and the Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras, even if there is no breakthrough in the negotiations.
The two split two ways
Note that the equal parties of the negotiation are recognized by the international community Republic of Cyprus and the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey. This, recall, is a consequence of one of the most ancient ethnic conflicts of the second half of the twentieth century. Cyprus, which until 1960 was a British possession, in 1974 it was split into Greek and Turkish parts.
It happened after the armed invasion of Turkey in response to the rebellion of the supporters joining the island to Greece. Turkey, which openly supported the uprising of the Turkish Cypriots, now 41 contains on the North of the island its troops – 35 th army corps consisting of several divisions. In this note, Turkey is not subjected to sanctions by the international community for its “support of separatism” and for three decades was a participant in the negotiation process with the participation of Northern Cyprus.
Turkey is the guarantor of Northern Cyprus, in particular, every year, she openly gives him financial support in the amount of hundreds of millions of euros, says DW. Cyprus, meanwhile, is part of the EU, which until recently did not interfere with Turkey’s negotiations on accession to the EU.
Observers, comparing similar situations in Cyprus and in the Donbas – and, consequently, the Geneva and Minsk negotiation process, stating: with all the similarities of the two crises, the approaches of the international community for them is very different.
We add that the former metropolis of Cyprus – Britain is also unashamedly from my own interests on the island in the key area of the Eastern Mediterranean. After the proclamation of Cypriot independence, the United Kingdom retained jurisdiction over two military bases – Akrotiri and Dhekelia, which distinguishes them from the American base in Cuba Guantanamo.
The connection of the head of the British foreign Ministry Johnson to the negotiation process suggests that a breakthrough in the frozen solution of the Cyprus issue is indeed possible.
“This is the last chance”
We will remind, negotiations between leaders of the two communities of Cyprus – President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis and the leader sampoprovozglashennoy of Northern Cyprus Mustafa Akinci – began in Geneva on 9 January. The main purpose as before is to stop the division of the island along ethnic lines. But this time the head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker expressed hope that the Cyprus problem will be able to find in the coming days. “I think the time has come to unite the island. The leaders of the two communities do a great job, I hope we will be able positively to conclude tomorrow the Geneva talks… I really think that this is the last chance to normalize Cyprus”, – said Juncker.
The Greek Cypriots, meanwhile, insist that Britain, Greece and Turkey refused the role of guarantors of security of Cyprus. They also require that Ankara withdrew from the island their military. These requirements supports and Greece.
On Wednesday at negotiations Anastasiadis and Akinci exchanged maps of territories in the presence of the special adviser of the UN Secretary General for a Cyprus settlement, former Minister of foreign Affairs of Norway Espen Bart EIDE. The latter, however, told The Guardian that the prospect of a breakthrough in the negotiations is weak. According to EIDE, amid growing signs of slippage yet at least on those positions for which the leaders of the Greek and Turkish communities of Cyprus have agreed initially.
Plan Nuland and Russian base
As previously noted the newspaper VIEW, their plans for “resolving” the situation in Cyprus is in the United States. With this purpose in April 2016, the island was visited by a representative of the state Department, a very famous and the former Soviet Union – assistant Secretary on Affairs of Europe and Eurasia Victoria Nuland.
American diplomacy is preparing to launch the script, killing several “birds” at once: the involvement of the island in NATO, which, recall, is Turkey. This will prevent there is a Russian military base, and smooth out the conflict that has split the Republic into two unequal parts. Meanwhile, the accelerated accession of Cyprus in its present form, NATO is a bureaucratic and diplomatic problems does not remove.
Just as the creation is still illusory “unified state” with the further legitimization of NATO military bases (specifically Turkish) will not remove the problem of national tensions. The more that the “United Cyprus” will not have independent military forces, and the presence of the Greek or Russian troops plan is not provided.
Gas as a reason for compromise
Head of the sector for research of the European Union, Institute of world economy and international relations (IMEMO) Russian Academy of Sciences Yury Kvashnin has reminded that during the very long negotiations, a party goes back on their word, and high expectations from these meetings is not justified. “During the previous round failed to agree with the Greek side, the majority of the Greek population opposed the “Annan plan”, which was planned to unite the island,” – said the expert.
But now, according to Kvashnin, the situation is more likely to be positive for several reasons.
“First, establish a good personal contact between the President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Anastasiadis and the leader of the Turkish community of Northern Cyprus Mustafa Akinci. Second, different parts of the island have similar economic interests relating to the issue of development discovered a few years ago gas fields. On the one hand, it is also a stumbling block, but on the other hand need to find a compromise,” he said.
In addition, Kvashnin noted that many other countries are interested that the situation was finally resolved, and is connected with this visit to Geneva the head of the British foreign Ministry.
Pitfalls on the road to a unified Cyprus
A leading analyst of the Agency for political and economic communications Michael Neyzhmakov noted: as shown by previous talks on Cyprus in Geneva in November 2016, the way to solve the issue is quite complicated. According to the expert, this time a very important position of Turkey. “No wonder, say, the official representative of the German foreign Ministry, speaking about the prospects of the forthcoming negotiations, it called on Ankara to “demonstrate a constructive approach”. The current talks will certainly be difficult on the road to success is still a lot of pitfalls”, – said political scientist newspaper VIEW.
According to Yuri Kvashnin, in case of success of negotiations should not rely on the immediate formation of a unified Cypriot state. “Even if the talks are successful, it comes about that in some future to create a “road map”, – says the source.
In addition, the expert believes that public education itself will be fairly loose. “Now they are talking about Federation, but it won’t be public education, similar to Germany and the Russian Federation, the degree of autonomy of the different parts of the island will be much higher. Between the two parts of the island are many serious differences in the tax system, social security organizations, and many other areas. Bring all to a common denominator will be very difficult,” he said.