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Monday, February 19, 2018

Marine Le Pen took the lead in the presidential race

Polls have shown that the leader of “National front” marine Le Pen for the first time surpassed the popularity of his main rival, former Prime Minister of France Fillon. Its electorate expanded with not the richest part of society – workers. But does this mean that it really can become President?

Published Wednesday by the weekly Paris Match the results of a poll it follows that the rating of the Chairman of the party “national front”, the presidential candidate marine Le Pen for the first time surpassed the rating of a competitor of the party “Union for a popular movement”, the former Prime Minister, the right centrist françois Fillon.

“She says that without the support of the broad electorate – in our understanding is a certain populism presidential elections are not won”

We will remind, presidential elections scheduled for April 23, possible second round on may 7. The results of the poll, Le Pen is seen as the winner in the first round with approximately 26.5% of the vote. Fillon was on the second place with nearly 25% of the vote. At the same time, RIA “Novosti”, who left the post of Prime Minister of France for the sake of participation in the elections, Manuel Valls, according to the survey, gaining 17% of votes.

On Wednesday, Fillon declared readiness to hold a debate with Le Pen if they both come in the second round. Speaking on the TV channel BFMTV, he criticized opponents and the media that represent it’s position to a caricature. “I was suddenly a candidate who wants to force the French to work more for less pay, which tends to dismiss all police officers, doctors, teachers, which pays Vladimir Putin. I am convinced that this incredible wave of criticism will only make people turn away from those who distribute it,” – said the politician.

In late December, the newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche ranked the most popular French. Traditionally at the top of the ranking figures of art (the first position is occupied by comedian Omar Sy), but Le Pen took 37th place, and Fillon – only 42nd.

Earlier in the week, the electoral results of the survey were presented by the company Odoxa. More than half of respondents believe that the independent candidate, ex-Minister of economy Emmanuel macron will be a better President than Fillon, 57% of respondents have a “bad opinion” about Fillon. The former Prime Minister has lost 12% popularity since November.

Regarding the comparison of Fillon and with former Prime Minister Manuel Valls votes divided almost equally: 49% support visit, and 48% of the Waltz. And according to a recent survey from Sofres OnePoint, Waltz, predicting victory in the first round of the primaries of the left forces to be held in late January is likely to concede in the second round of primaries, another candidate and also a former economy Minister Arnaud Montemuro.

Chairman of the coordination Council of Russian compatriots in France, the French publicist Dmitry koshko believes that if Fillon does not pass the second round, Le Pen will likely be faced with a Macron centrist, not a socialist Waltz.

“The Makron more likely because of his support of many oligarchs. Although he has no staff, no party. Fillon of the right must be the one who has the most chances. It is very difficult to predict what exactly the chances of marine Le Pen, because many French people refuse to answer questions of sociologists. So the polls are not very reliable. So it was with surveys about Brexit and the tramp,” said koshko newspaper VIEW. “If the socialist Waltz out of second place, then she can win,” he said.

Koshko notes that “national front” in their rhetoric before the election showed two trends. First, conventionally, left, holds the Vice-President Florian Filippo. “She’s more social. They say she inspires the ex-Minister of defence and the interior Jean-Pierre Chevenement, who supports the independence of France from the United States,” – said the source. According to him, thanks to Filippo marine Le Pen gets the people’s support, “including among civil servants, workers – those who Francois Hollande called “toothless”, that is poor, “the bottom of France.”

Another trend is that the more traditional parties and much more right. “She represented the granddaughter of Jean-Marie Le pen (the founder of the “Front”) Marion Marechal Le Pen is the youngest MP in the National Assembly. If the representatives of the two trends will quarrel, it will harm the “National front” – said the expert, adding that marine Le Pen is unable to withstand both because it needs the support of their constituents.

Leading researcher, Center of social problems of the Institute of Europe Sergei Fedorov also caught the change in pre-election rhetoric of Le Pen. As pointed out by Fedorov, some French analysts say that many of the slogans of the campaign is largely borrowed from the left, socialists and even Communists. “She says that without the support of the broad electorate – in our understanding is a certain populism presidential elections are not won. Therefore, in his pre-election rhetoric, Le Pen uses the social stuff, that content is brought together by her with some left-wing members of this presidential race. In particular, between the extreme left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and its some of the abstracts there are some similarities,” – said Fedorov newspaper OPINION.

According to him, barring any surprises, the second round will go Fillon and Le Pen. “Other candidates for the presidency thoroughly inferior to them in all the polls. Polls give the championship to the Fillon, Le Pen, which has recently risen higher. Behind them the main competitors – the macron and Valls. While this trend is not broken,” Fedorov summed up.


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