Two prohibited on the territory of Russia the group is ISIS and the Taliban have declared a Jihad. This was announced by the Afghan authorities, citing captured documents. In the background of this feud, apparently, lies a dispute over drug plantations and “personnel policies” of ISIS. But of particular interest is the possible role of the United States.
The head of police of the Afghan province of Helmand on Wednesday reported that the police have documents according to which the terrorist group “Islamic state*” and the Afghan radical movement “Taliban” has declared a “Holy war – Jihad”.
“In principle incorrect strategy to cooperate with some terrorists to defeat the other. It is not good to bring”
The total number of militants in Afghanistan, the Russian General staff in October of 2015, we recall, was estimated as: 50 thousand people, United in more than 4 thousand units and groups of different directions. Of them, according to various estimates, the number of fighters the Taliban is from 25 thousand to 40 thousand people. At the same time, as reported by the then chief of General staff Valery Gerasimov, the number of militants “Islamic state” in Afghanistan has reached 2-3 thousand.
Head of the research Department of middle East conflicts and the armed forces of the region of the Institute of innovative development Anton Mardas said that the “Taliban” and “Caliphate” in Afghanistan for a long time are in a contradictory relationship, and this is not the first case of a Declaration of war to each other. “Due to their confrontation in the first place with the fact that LIH* encroached on the province, which produced drugs. In fact, the “Caliphate” would discourage the Taliban tidbit. Around this and started the confrontation,” he said.
USA with the Taliban can be “in proportion”
At the same time, according to Murgasova, there have been cases and cooperation of the “Islamic state” with the Taliban. “According to some, during the offensive of the Taliban in Kunduz helped them and the militants. In addition, after the news of the death of Taliban leader Mullah Omar some units of the Taliban, mostly just not local, and the soldiers of the “brigade” began to move to the side of the “Caliphate” – said the expert. Of Mardas reminded that although the Taliban in General, the national movement, Pashtun, but was there earlier and foreign militants. The “Caliphate” was offered good money. Some experts then predicted that by the beginning of this year, the number of ISIS in Afghanistan will grow to 15 thousand people, but fortunately, this did not happen, including due to the fact that the Taliban began to squeeze out from Afghanistan the rival group,” said Mardas.
As for the U.S., then, according to Murgasova, they are in Afghanistan rather controversial policy. “On the one hand they are fighting terrorism and the Taliban, although a national movement, which proclaims its goal of expansion to neighbouring countries, nevertheless does not shy away from terrorist methods. Remember the elimination of one of the leaders of the Taliban by a us drone. On the other hand, according to some, the Americans have a certain percentage from the sale of drugs. There is a suspicion expressed by Western analysts that a number of CIA operations abroad are financed including through the Afghan drug traffic”, – explained the expert.
Therefore, according to the Mardas, like the US and does not want the Taliban were grouped around a new strong leader and moreover seized power in the country, but in General they are interested in the preservation of the unstable situation in the region.
To help you, but not to advertise
Of Mardas reminded numerous stuffing on possible cooperation between the Russians and the Taliban. “In particular, spread information about the fact that belonging to the movement of the tanks supposedly being repaired by Russian specialists on the territory of Tajikistan. Although this information is clearly questionable properties, it is theoretically not seems fantastic,” he said.
He believes that Russian diplomacy is now in Afghanistan, too, is a contradictory situation. “It seems logical to support the legitimate Afghan government, but the weakening of the Taliban is dangerous to the growth of the number of ISIS” – said the expert.
As explained by the Mardas, those same Americans are constantly reproached for the fact that they divide terrorists into “moderate” and “immoderate,” but in such a complex, fragile and fragmented country like Afghanistan, can not do without a system of checks and balances. “In the event of a real threat of proliferation of ISIS in the region, I guess you could consider some support to the Taliban. Another thing is that neither we nor the Americans do not necessary anything to advertise,” said the military expert.
We will remind, in November the Russian service Bi-Bi-si suggested that Russia is not interested in the penetration of fighters and trainers ISIS to the North, in the countries of Central Asia, supposedly the beginning or may begin supplying weapons to the Taliban as a balancing force. Previously, the Taliban leadership denied any contacts with representatives of Russia and Iran, and “now the Taliban boast of expanding its international relations”, declared Bi-Bi-si.
In early January, the rumor was picked up by the former head of the Kunduz province, Umar Safi, who said Spogmai radio that Tajikistan’s tanks and other armored vehicles, the Taliban allegedly repaired by the specialists from Russia. The government of Tajikistan has denied that information and, according to “Nezavisimaya Gazeta”, demanded Safi apology.
We will remind that in November, the Director of the Second Asian Department of the Russian foreign Ministry Zamir Kabulov admitted the existence of the communication channel with the Taliban. “We have contacts with the Taliban. We leave them on the safety issues of diplomatic missions of Russia and Russian citizens – quoted by his newspaper LOOK. – In addition, through communication channels offered to the Taliban to reach agreement on the issue of universal truce and cessation of hostilities”.
“Had a fight today, tomorrow is made up.”
Temporary situational alliances with the militants “the Americans are in full use, but it is their experience, it is better not to do it,” said the newspaper VIEW scientific Director of the Institute of applied Oriental and African studies, said Gafurov. He noted that the basis of anti-terrorism U.S. strategy – an attempt to split terrorists: they divide them into “good and bad”, but in the end, “they cannot defeat terror and they get blow by blow”, stated the expert.
No matter with a group to cooperate and what are the names of these groups, says Gafurov. “They had a fight today, and tomorrow reconciled, – said the source. – In principle incorrect strategy to cooperate with some terrorists to defeat the other. It is not good arguments.” So we have to repeat their mistakes is not worth it, said the source.
“The Taliban are very clear Pashtun nationalist movement, Afghanistan they perceive, in fact, as a Pashtun, not a multinational state. For LIH the same nationality doesn’t matter,” said Gafurov. He also said that in Afghanistan the Taliban and ISIS is mainly in control of geographically remote from each other, so large-scale fighting between them is unlikely.
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”