USA exacerbate relations with China through a variety of indirect provocation with the participation of its neighbors. As a result, Beijing was in a nasty trap: his measured response starts to look “weak” in the eyes of the world, and “strong” – and the more forceful the reaction will be obviously excessive and inadequate. Will the leadership of China find a way out of the trap placed?
On the eve of the inauguration of Donald trump Sino-us relations continue to mutually vzvinchivanie.
“China is forced to respond to increasingly tough and hostile actions of the States that hold the initiative in the unfolding of the party”
Republican Senator Ted Cruz, representing in the U.S. Senate from Texas, met with the head of administration of Taiwan Cai Inven. This is the third in the last couple of months demonstrative step States undermining the basic foreign policy principle of “one China” that the US has taken in recent decades.
The first was a telephone conversation of the winning trump with the same Cai Inven. Although this move has sparked criticism of the elected President by his opponents, including the current administration, this did not stop Barack Obama at the end of last year to sign a bill on military spending, which has articles on military cooperation of the USA with Taiwan.
With Beijing in all cases followed expected a formal response in view of the foreign Ministry. However, it seems that originally Chinese authorities hoped unfriendly steps of Americans, in particular telephone conversation trump with the Taiwanese leader to be attributed to political inexperience of the President-elect. The signing of the military budget with “Taiwan” articles obviously dispelled their hopes for the accident occurred.
As a result, the passage of the bill coincided with the teachings of the Chinese warships in the disputed waters of the South China sea, and this area includes the aircraft carrier “Liaoning”, which led the group. Exercises looked clear “retaliatory step” of Beijing in aggravation with Washington.
Meeting cruise from Cai Inven became the third largest “stumbling block” between the US and China in recent months. The urgency of the situation, adds that it took place in Houston, where the leader of Taiwan was part of a tour of Latin American countries. Earlier, the Chinese foreign Ministry expressed hope that the United States will not allow transit Cai Inven through their territory on its way to Latin America. The hopes were not destined to come true. In addition to Houston she made a stop also in San Francisco.
In fact, China was in a situation where he is forced to answer, tightening its position in bilateral relations with the US, even if he does not really want. Because otherwise will be regarded as weakness and loss of face of China.
As a result of formal Beijing has moved to an increasingly tough statements. The meeting of Cruz and Tsai Inven received a very harsh comment of the official representative of Chinese foreign Ministry Lu Kang. And all this happens against the background of concrete actions that demonstrate the willingness of Beijing to any developments. Several recent anecdotal case of a detained Chinese military and returned to the Americans underwater drone has also become another episode of the growing bilateral relations.
In addition to Taiwan another escalated the “sick corn” for Beijing, South Korea has become, and again in connection with the United States. We are talking about disagreements in connection with the placement of Seoul an American missile defense system THAAD.
Despite the statements and the steps taken, the position of Beijing while still looking confident enough. China is forced to respond to increasingly tough and hostile actions of the States that hold the initiative in the unfolding of the party. And the Americans cleverly cause a painful injections, but not directly, but indirectly.
China is indeed in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it needs to somehow respond, not to lose face and not look weak. On the other hand, it is the obvious way to provoke excess – possibly including force – reaction, that would be an obvious mistake. And on the third hand, China has no Russian “immunity” to provocations, including the military component, because of the misunderstanding (and the outside world, and by the Chinese themselves), the real strength and fighting efficiency of the army and its ability to solve geopolitical problems.
Russia over the last decades has repeatedly proven that even in a period of severe state of decline, its military remains capable and ready to fulfill the order. In recent years, demonstrated the power of modernized armed forces of Russia, and the Kremlin’s ability to use them to solve specific political problems – from the Crimea to Syria.
The result is the current military buildup of NATO forces on the Western border of Russia is very calm Moscow’s reaction and understanding of the rest of the world, why Moscow reacts that way – she doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone, including myself.
Beijing, however, a similar advantage can not boast. As a result, he is forced to keep a balanced policy is in constant risk that it will be regarded by the world as weak (in the Russian tradition, this policy is called “last warning”). In turn, one or the other “strong” reaction is likely to be a mistake, since it will be precisely what is sought by Washington for its provocations.
With a high probability of joining the White house, Donald trump will only aggravate the problem for China. The worsening of relations, indirect “injections” and outright provocations will continue, and whether Beijing is to seize the initiative in this process and terminate it, it is far from obvious.