In Moscow to create the next, the second Government of Ukraine in exile. Creates it as the last time (in 2014) former Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. He said this electronic media. In 2014, Azarov did not receive the support of the Kremlin and brought the idea of the “exiled government” to end, limiting the rental office in the Russian capital and the opening of the public organization “the Committee of rescue of Ukraine”. It is his second attempt? All of the “government in exile” are created with a single goal: to return to his country and to lead it. But is it possible to Azarov and Ukraine? This “MK” asked the leading Ukrainian political analyst Vadim KARASEV and the Russian scientist, politician Konstantin ZATULIN.
Vadim KARASEV, Director of the Institute of global strategies (Kiev):
– The policy that something else counts, you need to constantly create information occasions, not to be forgotten. Azarov, apparently, wants to be remembered at least in Russia. And I think he is hoping to obtain carte Blanche in the DNI and LC.
Azarov calculation is quite simple: 2017 will be a difficult year for Ukraine from the economic point of view. So he decided to “hurry up” in haste “riveted” a study of alternative development, which, looking from abroad, from Moscow, to criticize the Ukrainian government and blame him for the fact that Ukraine is living worse and worse. The opposition in Ukraine is now heard very bad, and Azariah, using the resource of Russian propaganda, can saturate the media criticism. But in the center and West of Ukraine Azarov extremely unpopular, so his eye is primarily on the rebellious East.
In the breakaway republics of Donbass has a huge management problem (the new elites do not know how), and Azarov could count on his return to the influential levers in these regions, if there is no progress in the Minsk process and the channel format.
– Is there any chance for a “government in exile” back in government offices all over Ukraine in the future?
– I think that he will not be able to create a full-fledged “government in exile”, even form its backbone. Where he gets in Moscow as a professional and skilled exiles from Kiev? Moreover, Ukraine is already a “shadow government” under the leadership of Boris Kolesnikov, formed on the basis of the former “Party of regions”. There are other opposition offices. Azarov can be accused of anything but not manilovism. So it is taking quite a pragmatic attempt is make to go into oblivion, to bonuses on economic problems of Ukraine and to stay in the political going. And for this we need to collect in Russia colleagues and to make some programmatic theses. Well, suddenly “black Swan fly” or “hell freezes over”? And then anything can happen, and will have a chance to say: “and we didn’t sleep, we are ready to return to Kiev”.
– In the period between the announcement of the establishment of the “government in exile” in 2014 and 2017-om Azarov somehow communicated with residents and elites of Ukraine?
– And how could he communicate? In Ukraine it is criminal cases, he was arrested in absentia. And, apparently, he does not want to communicate. Even Zakharchenko and Carpentry communicate with residents of the Eastern regions in chats, and Azarov and didn’t do it. I therefore treat with skepticism to this Chapter “government in exile”. After all, he aspired still to be heard in Ukraine. Well, ideas that could attract the attention of the people to that government, too, was not still.
– You live in Ukraine, but often in Russia, I communicate with Russian politicians and political scientists. In your opinion, the Russian elite support Azarov, or Moscow plans to use it to their advantage in Ukraine, in bargaining with Kiev?
– Moscow was not going to use Azarov, unless there is some global “fiasco” in Ukraine. I think all this is a personal initiative Azarov and those former officials who have moved to Moscow. Moscow does not prevent them but not treat them seriously. Yet.
Because Moscow and Kiev now there is no relationship at all. There are no ambassadors, no regular communication. And when so — and in some implementation of “misdirected Kazatchkov”, in some intrigues and combinations there is not the slightest sense.
There are only relations between individuals. Three million Ukrainians work in Russia, dozens of Russian disgraced politicians working in Kiev. Ilya Ponomarev, for example. Come to Kiev sometimes Russian journalists. For example, the Russian radio station “Echo of Moscow” recently took interview with Kravchuk. That is private contacts exist. And if we talk about elites, business and political, their contacts are collapsed, except for point of negotiations on gas or the problem of war. That is, relations between the two countries at a zero level, and as a consequence influence on each other is also zero.
Konstantin ZATULIN, Director of CIS Institute, state Duma Deputy, first Deputy of the state Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Eurasian integration and relations with compatriots:
– Azarov has not yet created a government in exile, and only allows for such a possibility, but the Committee of rescue of Ukraine, he proclaimed, he has an office in October, he works with migrants from Ukraine. We met several times with Azarov and periodically solves issues related with immigrants from Ukraine. We plan soon to invite Azarov and other politicians close to him in our Committee of the state Duma to discuss the issue of political refugees and migrants.
– In what may be the mission “of the Ukrainian government in exile”, is it possible that it has returned to Ukraine and took power there?
– There are historical experiences of migrant governments. The government of Louis XVIII remained in exile for decades, when Napoleon led France and then, when Napoleon fell, it was valid, and Louis returned to France by the king. This is one of the first examples, there are plenty of more modern.
Usually migranie government arise in connection with a gross violation of the order of things in the country: a coup or revolution. After the October revolution in Russia, the centenary of which we celebrate this year, there was a deep emigrantka governments.
It is clear that the coup in Ukraine gives the same reason for the creation of the emigre Ukrainian government. Azarov works closely with Vladimir Oleynik, who made a request to the Russian court for recognition of the events in Ukraine in 2014 coup.
And if we recognize these events a coup, then we cannot fail to recognize the existence of the government in exile and other political emigrants from Ukraine to Russia. But in this respect we have a very serious problem. It lies in the fact that on the basis of a visa-free regime with Ukraine, we do not consider refugees from the Ukraine as political emigrants. This is one of the absurdities of our civil law that denies the obvious. We have millions of people who fled from the Ukraine from a coup or civil war, they are persecuted in Ukraine, but in Russia we consider them not as refugees and as voluntary immigrants in Russia. We are confused themselves. I personally would like to amend the legislation in order to change this situation, and doing it with colleagues from Russia and Ukraine.
– Russia will support “the government of Ukraine in exile” at the state level?
– This is a very delicate question, which will depend on our relations with Ukraine. I personally believe that our current relations with Ukraine must push to ensure that we provide some support for Azarov and his government. But this support is, of course, should not be excessive and should not dictate the rhetoric of our relations with Kiev. But if our court has called the events in Ukraine a coup, then you need to be consistent.
– Ukrainian political scientist Vadim Karasev expressed to me his version of motivation Azarov: he believes that the former Prime Minister of Ukraine wants to use the status of the head of the “government in exile” to gain control over the DNI and LC. Your feedback regarding this replica the Ukrainian colleagues?
– I think that at this stage the control over the Donbass Azarov impossible. Ukrainian politicians, who settled in Russia from Yanukovych — the people who are responsible for what happened in Ukraine in 2014, has not used its capabilities in order to prevent a coup. And in the Donbass treat them that way. Those who are currently at the helm of the DND and LNR — men brand new, and they don’t want to let those who were before them. They are not allowed to their territory any of the former, including Azarov.
It should be understood that the responsibility Azarov, of course, lower, because Yanukovych has removed him from his post of head of government before the coup. One of the reasons for the coup that Azarov was removed. Because he behaved quite firmly, and his successors began to “play games” with the Maidan. Now they also have immigrants.
So if I personally perceive Yanukovych as a negative character, — Azarov as positive. It could benefit the DNI and the LC. As Viktor Tikhonov — long Chairman of the Lugansk regional Council, a former Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine and the Ukrainian Ambassador in Belarus. He long before everyone started talking about federalism in Ukraine, fought for the Russian language under the President of Ukraine Kuchma. Why is it not allowed in LC? But to return to Lugansk, he can’t. He made such an attempt and we barely pulled out. Because we are talking literally about his life. Or Valery Golenko is the last Chairman of the Lugansk regional Council, howled one time Governor of the Luhansk region. He, too, is in Moscow and can’t go back to LC. Very pity that the modern ruling team of Donbass perceives them as enemies. I think that to give the opportunity for capable people to help the Republic, to contribute — would be correct. After all, they did not betray, did not accept the current regime in Kiev and oppose it.
But Russia in this case can not affect the situation, except our right to give advice. These republics and elected authorities of the DNI and the LC, absolutely independent from Moscow, whatever may be said by our opponents.