2016 the outgoing year was marked by the emergence of new trends in world politics. Among them – strengthening of Russian influence. Within Russia itself, showed the results of long-term political reform. The credibility of the new Duma began to grow. The principle of equality before the law was confirmed in the case – it showed the arrests of influential figures. The coming year promises to form the agenda of the upcoming presidential elections.
2016 was very full of political events. Russia has proved that its influence on the world stage is extremely high and those who had given her up was wrong.
“Putin has laid the groundwork for a new era in the history of Russia. He formulated a new social contract which is that the words of the President, people support the government”
At the same time there was the formation of a new political system, which took several years. In the end, the legislative branch has increased – according to sociologists, the authority of the state Duma updated in the past year its membership, began to strengthen.
At the same time, managed to find what has become a kind of mesurement bridge that connects the generations. The outgoing year was the year of the birth of a new tradition that will live a very long time – a March “Immortal regiment”.
However, the year also will be partly critical, it needs to outline the agenda of the upcoming presidential election, will continue the fight against corruption, and the economy needs to get back on the track of recovery.
Russia for a year became a foreign policy completely independent
The analyst, President of center of strategic communications Dmitry Abzalov believes that 2016 was a turning point for a whole range of foreign policy trends of the modern world, and the fracture occurred with the participation of Russia. “Some of the things that took place behind the scenes, came out this year in the open phase,” he said.
“If the Syrian period, Russia was not an active player in foreign policy, we now came out openly as a subject. Formed its own agenda in Syria, Ukraine, and even America. This is a breakthrough in our foreign policy,” – said the expert.
Speaking about the events in the middle East, the political scientist reminded that we not only took East Aleppo, but also created a negotiating area with Turkey, Iran and other major players in the region.
“If Russia previously built into the proposed formats, the now independently formed a negotiating base. While in the middle East we are able to negotiate with those countries with which Washington has to negotiate not. Take the same Iran and Turkey. In addition, we have agreed on the decision on reduction of prices on energy carriers with the Gulf monarchies, and agreements were reached with Egypt,” – said the expert.
The expert also noted that Russia managed to avoid a grotesque manifestations in foreign policy, characteristic of the late 1990s, when, on the one hand we were against the bombing of Yugoslavia, but the maximum that we could do is to throw a company of paratroopers. “These big projects do not affect the overall situation. Now Moscow is acting systematically, and at the same time effectively,” says Abzalov.
In addition to the Middle East, according to Abzalov, significant progress has been made by Moscow and Europe. “Let me remind you that a year ago, against Russia acted in front the sanctions, the European countries seriously was going to monopolize the supply of gas, and further to extend sanctions. All the major policies the EU has taken anti-posiu on key issues,” the analyst recalled.
Abzalov noted that this year Brexit in Britain affected the ability of Brussels to influence the national economy.
“While Russia warned that the thoughtless policy towards the Middle East will lead to a migration crisis, which, in principle, happen. It has fundamentally changed the situation in European countries: in France, with high probability the election will come to power Pro-Russian politician. And Fillon, and especially Le Pen, supports the normalization of relations with Moscow. Similar developments are taking place in Germany, Merkel’s rating dropped significantly and continues to stagnate. Merkel herself declared intention to improve relations with Moscow. In addition, left office, David Cameron, actory was one of the main instigators of anti-Russian sanctions,” he said.
Abzalov believes that the situation in Europe has changed fundamentally. The real consequences, the expert believes we’ll see, probably next summer, when elections are held in most countries and G-20.
In addition, according to Abzalov, was also an important past at the end of the year of Russian-Japanese negotiations. “This is a balanced position of Russia in East Asia. We used to be friends exclusively with China, now negotiating with other players in the region,” he explained.
“Winning becomes the focal point of Russian history”
Head of Department of General political science of the Higher school of Economics Leonid Polyakov the main event in 2016, called the people’s March “Immortal regiment” on may 9. “This is a very good tradition, which positively effect the perspectives of different periods of history into something whole. Victory becomes the semantic centre of Russian history as such, of a new national identity that is significant for everyone,” Polyakov said the newspaper VIEW.
In his view, the movement “the Immortal regiment” will constantly keep the feelings of the people that we are “really Russian in the broadest sense of the word that is behind us sensible of the great big story” that gives us an absolute moral and political commitments at the statement of the world role of Russia. “That was the meaning of this event. It must be maintained. It’s not just a single action. It is the perpetuation of national memory, is the implanting of a new tradition that will support us,” – said the expert.
Another important result of the year the Poles calls elections to the state Duma on a mixed system that has led to a significant upgrade of its composition. “This had a positive impact on its activities, its public perception. The composition was renewed by 60%. Came a new energy, drive, people came with new projects and ideas. This is encouraging. We have come a long period of history, associated with the reunification of the Crimea with Russia and it is very important that the state Duma had the support of society,” – says the Poles.
Poles called them meaningful Message to the Federal Assembly.
“Putin has laid the groundwork for a new era in the history of Russia. He formulated a new social contract which is that the words of the President, people support the government. The era of high levels of national consolidation, not because everything is fine and good, on the contrary, people understand that there are a lot of problems, but at the same time, I understand that there are those who can be trusted in their decision. The most important thing is the essence of this social contract – people expect that the principles of respect, trust and dignity are mutual, the society will get new opportunities for free self-realization in all spheres of life. The principle of fairness, trust and respect that we uphold in the international arena, it must be projected inside the country,” he said.
“This is a balanced position of Russia in East Asia. We used to be friends exclusively with China, now negotiating with other players in the region”
With regard to the situation of the economy, Polyakova there is a feeling that the search for the most optimal models of post-crisis Russia continues. “There is reason for optimism. A tendency to hard crash, which occurred in late 2014, ends. Hints of growth in different industries already. The program, which is prepared by may 2017 for the President, that is the program output of the economy in four years on growth trajectory above the world – this is the real thing. 17 th year in this sense will be a turning point,” predicts Leonid Polyakov.
“These people will form the agenda of the presidential election”
The head of “Political expert group” Konstantin Kalachev believes that the main political outcome of the year was the election to the state Duma, which became “on popular representation”. “It was the result of the political reforms of recent years. The September elections were the key event is obtaining a constitutional majority of the EP, the growth of public confidence in elections, increase confidence in the work of the state Duma, increase of its authority,” said Kalachev newspaper VIEW.
According to him, one cannot ignore changes in the administration of the President, which changed not only the head and his Deputy for domestic policy, but a number of other figures. “The emergence of new people in the administration of the President is an important event. These people will form the agenda of the presidential election and the next term of Vladimir Putin,” – said Kalachev.
He is convinced that the implementation of the political reform is successful and the rate of filling new contents of such concepts as competition, legitimacy is justified. “Set other standards to election campaigns. Society’s attitude to the election results was positive. I must admit that the replacement of Vladimir Churov, Ella Pamfilova justified. Has improved the image of the CEC, the elections in General. Raised the standard,” – said Kalachev.
The analyst said that according to sociologists from VTsIOM, increased evaluation activities of the DG. “I would note the statement by Vyacheslav Volodin at the close of the autumn session, it was formulated the new priorities. Now there is talk about improving the quality of lawmaking. Bet on quality improvement, involvement of experts, non-parliamentary parties – it’s all going to pay off in full next year,” he predicts.
Kalachev indicates that 2016 was the year when repeatedly and loudly sounded the formula is not untouchable. “In fact, the detention of the speaker and some governors is proof that the fight against corruption is for the government one of the priorities. For the President in the message is one of the priorities”, – said the expert, adding that this needs to be addressed systematically without PR, “without a high-profile campaign”.
After the parliamentary elections in the agenda was the election of the President. “Who formed the agenda of these elections. Next year will be the year when it will be answered – will the campaign inertial or innovative. What content will be Napoli it,” says Kalachev.
According to him, the strategy of economic development of Russia “18-24-35” is working at the economist Alexey Kudrin, will become an integral part of the agenda of the future President. “The fact that the end of the year sounded the theme of the development agenda, it is also very important. Relatively speaking, the economy should be put on the rails of sustainable development. It is necessary to ensure economic growth, incomes, increase of level and quality of life. The message of the President sounded the theme of not only underlying values, but the subject of development is also an important result of this year”, – concluded Konstantin Kalachev.
All the news on the elections to the state Duma in 2016