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Thursday, January 18, 2018

Trump’s threats to force Iran to recall the friendship with Russia

Iran suddenly changed his mind about the use of Russian air bases on its territory. If in August for such use in Iran has given rise to a political scandal, now Tehran is almost urges Moscow to use its airfields. It looks like this change of mood has global political implications.

Tehran is ready to once again provide FSI Russian air base in Hamadan But, if required by the situation in Syria, said Tuesday Advisor to the head of Iranian foreign Ministry Hossein Sheikholeslam.

“The Iranian issue was one of the main pre-election rhetoric trump and his team. Tehran is now crucial again to search allies”

“If Russia has the need arises and will agree with the Russian side, the Russian VKS will be able to use this base for its military mission in Syria. If required by the situation in Syria, like last time, we are ready again to provide an opportunity for the Russian side to fly and the gas station HQs from this airport”, – quotes Sheikholeslami RIA “Novosti”.

However, he noted that all activities on the base must be carried out exclusively under the full control of Iran. “(Previously) Russian planes have received from us permission to carry out flights from this airport for air strikes on terrorist positions in Syria, with all these flights and use of air bases controlled by us”, – said the adviser in an interview with Sputnik Persian.

The fall of Aleppo or victory trump

On Saturday, Iranian defense Minister Hossein Dehgan also warned that videoconferencing will again be able to use the air base in Hamadan, if required by the situation in Syria. And on Monday evening presidents of Russia and Iran Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani held a telephone conversation. The leaders discussed joint projects in trade-economic sphere and the situation in the middle East and praised the level of cooperation in the fight against terror. Experts drew attention to the fact that the call coincided with the total victory of the Syrian, Iranian and Russian forces in Aleppo and Tehran’s decision to once again invite the VCS in Hamadan.

Americanist Boris Mezhuev does not exclude that the new rapprochement between Iran and Russia is connected with the victory on presidential elections of the USA of Donald trump.

“Of course, with the election trump the Iranians seriously strained. We don’t yet know who will occupy key positions in his team, in particular Secretary of state and the Pentagon chief, however, the Iranian issue was one of the main pre-election rhetoric trump and his team. For Tehran it is important again to seek allies. Russia’s position will be crucial,” suggested americanist in an interview with the newspaper LOOK. He suggested that trump to win the election even thought about how to combine hawkish rhetoric against Iran with a tendency to reconciliation with Russia, including on the Syrian issue.

However, Mezhuev does not expect anything good from a possible rupture of the Iranian nuclear deal, or similar decisions of Washington. “It is unprofitable and Europe. Not only Russia, but also Western European countries will not support trump in the event of any anti-Iran action,” – said the expert.

Four reasons to remember about Moscow

Head of the research Department of middle East conflicts and the armed forces of the region of the Institute of innovative development Anton Mardas in an interview with the newspaper LOOK also reminiscent of the anti-Iranian rhetoric of Donald trump and his associates. “Although they have no coherent strategy about Iran, but Tehran is clearly heard their pre-election promises to renegotiate the nuclear deal – and so decided in the case of any new conflict with Washington to lean on Russia”, – he explained.

However, Mardas listed three purely military version of the intensification of Russian-Iranian cooperation. First, the expert does not exclude that now – after the possible fall of Aleppo – again special attention will be given to the Eastern part of Syria, despite the remaining problems in the West of the country.

“Assad simply need to claim your piece of the pie in the center of Raqqa, where there is oil and a network of cascades of hydroelectric power plants. In this situation, for the Russian VKS Hamadan just perfect to strike at the East of the country. Using this framework drastically reduces flight time. In fact, in August we struck out mainly in HOMS and other Eastern provinces,” says the orientalist. Of Mardas also stressed that unlike the Western provinces, where there are other groupings, the East of Syria fully occupied “Islamic state*”*, and therefore, about the attacks on the Eastern provinces have the ability to reach consensus with key foreign policy players.

Second, the expert suggests that negotiations are under way about building up the Iranian military presence in Syria. “The chief of staff of Iran said about the possibility of placing on the Syrian coast naval base. This, too, may be related to another intensification of Russian-Iranian talks,” the analyst recalled.

Thirdly, the expert believes that Iran may be trying to persuade Russia to bet on a more aggressive way to resolve the conflict. In particular, negotiations on the delimitation of zones of influence and more actively support the government army and Shiite groups in their possible attack on Idlib and boost the assault on the remaining areas of Aleppo. “But it’s not the best option, because in areas where the disturbed balance between the Shiite and Sunni population, the issue could be resolved only through political settlement,” warns orientalist.

As the newspaper VIEW, in late August, the sudden falling-out between Moscow and Tehran have forced our aircraft to leave the air base at Hamadan. The same Hossein Dehgan then made a rare public undiplomatic criticism of Russia. “The share of bragging and arrogant behavior” – with these words the Minister the comments of the Russian colleagues about the use of the air base. Iran was interrupted by such a seemingly promising military cooperation with Russia. The experts believed that the reason was internal political pressure that was exerted on the Iranian military by conservatives, who feared to admit to the country any foreign military, even the Russian allies. According to sources, “Kommersant”, Moscow wanted to use the Hamadan as a full-fledged military base with the appropriate Arsenal, but Tehran this option did not suit.

The Iranian issue was actively used in the election agenda in the United States. While still a presidential candidate, Donald trump repeatedly promised to break the Iranian nuclear deal. After his victory, the political scientist from the University of Tennessee (USA) Andrei Korobkov called in an interview the newspaper LOOK very plausible scenario in which the new US administration will offer Moscow a deal – in exchange for joint allied action in Syria to some extent to give up the friendship with Tehran.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”


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