Japan and the United States began a new round of bilateral relations is extremely positive. However, the reality may be much bleaker. The main unifying Washington and Tokyo, the factor of threats (including military) from China. But the economic problems of Japan can cause it to “fall into the arms” of Moscow.
The US President-elect Donald trump met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and the meeting took place in the new York residence of billionaire trump Tower. Moreover, trump’s words hinted that Abe even stopped at his house for the night.
“In the face of imaginary threats of full-scale military conflict in South-East Asia, the US and Japan are in need of each other as allies”
Almost simultaneously, the media has learned that the United States intend the end of the year to pass the Japanese authorities of the territories on the island of Okinawa. Another very significant step, especially given that the agreement was concluded in 1996, but since 2002, its implementation was frozen.
So quick and looks very positive start of a new stage of relations between Japan and the United States reflects the intricate symbiotic relationship in which are country. It is further complicated by the current highly complex and potentially explosive situation in the region.
South East Asia is cited as regions where existing differences and contradictions between countries with a high probability can lead to open and large-scale military conflict. Formally, the main bone of contention was a disputed territory in the South China sea, and the key opposing powers – China and the United States.
The problem is that Japan was, in fact, the only reliable ally and partner States in the region. After the scandalous anti-American steps Philippines recent months it has become particularly clear.
While Japan is interested in States no less sincere than those in her. China does not hide his desire to get even with the Japanese for the events of the Second world war. So, in the case of transition of the conflict into a hot phase Japan is hardly the first “get a hand”. Japan is actively stepping up its military forces, but in the case of a direct confrontation with China without the help and support of the state of Tokyo is clearly not survive.
So, in the face of imaginary threats of full-scale military conflict in South-East Asia, the US and Japan are in need of each other as allies.
The only unhappy in this case is the Japanese public, which is tired of cuts to the country’s sovereignty and us military bases on its territory. She prepared a gift in the form of the return to Japan of part of the territory on Okinawa that will mitigate the existing discontent, even for a while.
Another important – and more complex – the theme is the economy, including the fate of the TRANS-Pacific trade partnership.
Japan is a strong supporter of this agreement. Given that for many years now the Japanese economy is in a state of stagnation, from which it does not work out, apparently, that the TTP of Japanese corporations and the government saw a chance to change for the better. The Japanese Parliament already ratified the agreement on November 10.
However, just since the victory in the elections trump the draft TRANS-Pacific partnership began to crumble.
First it was announced that there is no way to ratify agreements through the American Parliament. While trump has repeatedly and publicly stated its categorically negative position in relation to the TTP and the intention to abandon it if elected.
Then Vietnam has suspended the ratification of the partnership. And the President of Peru suggested replacing the TTP agreement with Russia and China without the US.
In fact, in this matter, the US and Japan now opposing positions, and if TPP ceases to exist, and so it began, the land of the rising sun is clearly trying to get his “suzerain” of this or that aid in solution of economic problems.
Moreover, Tokyo has an impressive trump card for negotiations with the new administration, the usual nowadays – Russian.
Between Russia and Japan recent negotiations on strengthening economic cooperation, and we are talking about very large-scale projects. The country actually comes out of the regime of anti-Russian sanctions. The most important theme for the Japanese is the entry into the Russian projects for the delivery of energy resources in the far Eastern country, for the Country of the rising sun is extremely important, given the acute power shortages in the country. In addition, Tokyo is interested in embedding into the emerging Euro-Asian logistics routes, in particular, is considered a project to extend the TRANS-Siberian railway to Hokkaido.
The result is the new American President and his administration will have to solve a difficult dilemma. Trump will save the American economy, particularly the real sector. It is unlikely that the assistance of Japan, which in recent decades has itself become the States cash cow (and trump expects that it will remain that extremely not happy Tokyo), part of his plans.
However, military threat from China and not allowed the territorial conflict with Russia may not be enough to keep the vassal of allegiance to and cooperation with Moscow.
If you need Japan’s support will not be forthcoming, it can really fit in the Eurasian projects of Russia simply because it does not remain other choice, and become another “victim” of soft power, the Kremlin.