“Many people here simply do not believe their eyes. Until recently were dominated by a “culture of welcome”, we were told, that Germany is an open country… Now around Europe were actually built a wall. These actions increase sympathy for Angela Merkel and her party,” – said in an interview with the newspaper OPINION of German political scientist Alexander Rahr, commenting on the intention of “Frau kantslerin” to run for a fourth term.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel intends to run for another fourth term. About this informed the head of the Bundestag Committee on foreign Affairs Norbert röttgen, which is led by the Chancellor’s ruling Christian democratic Union (CDU).
“The fact that Donald trump offered to make against Mexico, in a short period of time embodied in the EU “
Merkel “determined, she is willing and ready to contribute to the strengthening of international liberal order. However, it does not have to do it alone,” said Röttgen, stressing the need for Western aid. However, the official representatives of the Cabinet in no hurry to confirm the statement Röttgen. The press Secretary of the government Steffen Seibert said: “it Remains so, as mentioned earlier. The Chancellor will tell if she will go for another term, at the right time.”
In recent months the popularity of the incumbent Chancellor falls. Many residents are frustrated with the way the Cabinet Merkel cope (or rather, not coping) with the migration crisis. In September it was reported that in Germany the discontent with the policy of the Chancellor reached the highest level in the last five years. Then Merkel’s party CDU at the elections in the German capital showed the worst result in the history of the unified Berlin. Painful lesions of the Christian Democrats who suffer in the land elections. As pointed out by the newspaper VIEW, the election to the Bundestag 2017 CDU is in danger of miserably lose and to go into opposition for the first time since 2005.
In early September, a survey was conducted of public opinion, which showed that the most popular politician is Germany’s foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the representative of the Social democratic party. According to sociologists, the rating of trust in Steinmeier was 72%, while Merkel’s rating is only 63%.
While the Frau kantslerin the day before called Steinmeier wonderful candidate in presidents of Germany. Explain in Germany, which is a parliamentary Republic the President has very limited powers and performs mainly representative functions. Apparently, the implication is that if a potential competitor Merkel will take the presidency, she will be likely to keep Concerto. However, Merkel is unstable and most of her party. It was noted that the CDU is urgently looking for in their midst a politician who would be able to change the post “iron kantslerin”.
What might be behind the statement of the Deputy Röttgen, Merkel can seriously count on re-election and whether the non-systemic use of force “trump effect” in order to shake the habitual alignment of forces – the VZGLYAD newspaper spoke with a German scientist, scientific Director of the German-Russian forum Alexander rarom.
(photo: Anton Denisov/RIA Novosti)
VIEW: Mr. Rahr why in a press-service of the government refuted the statement Röttgen?
Alexander Rahr: Although Röttgen and is an experienced politician, he has now made quite a grave mistake. He may know some details, but Angela Merkel for the sake of intrigue must announce his intention to run for the post of Chancellor of Germany. I think that now Röttgen put in place.
The Merkel, I believe, is due to announce its decision before the end of this year. Now there is no reason to assert that someone other than Merkel, was nominated for the post of Chairman of the CDU. In this case it is logical to represent their party in the presidential race next year. Otherwise, now would actively prepare her some kind of replacement, we would know about it.
OPINION: Merkel Previously supported the nomination of Frank-Walter Steinmeier President of Germany? What motivated this decision?
A. R. : It supported the nomination of Steinmeier as a result of tactical desperation. The President of Germany is elected not by the people, and the two houses of Parliament: the Federation Council and the Bundestag. If you add up all the votes of parliamentarians together, the Christian Democrats there is no majority.
Merkel tried to find a candidate from the CDU, which would suit also representatives of other parties, particularly the greens and social Democrats, but are unable to do it. Many of those whom she had invited to become such candidate, refused, knowing that they will fail.
Merkel decided to support the nomination of Steinmeier and thereby firmly bind the CDU and the SPD, thereby to extend the coalition. Previously her favorite was the Prime Minister of Baden-württemberg Winfried Kretschmann, member of the green party. However, within the CDU, especially among the right wing of the party, not all supported the coalition between the Christian Democrats and the greens. Now Steinmeier became a candidate for President of the government coalition.
OPINION: Will Merkel to take some political steps to increase your rating before the upcoming elections? In particular, the change of policy towards immigrants?
A. R.: This policy has changed, not only in Germany but also in Europe in General. Many here just will not believe your eyes. A few months ago, there reigned a “culture of welcome”, we were told, that Germany is an open country.
Now around Europe were actually built a wall. What Donald trump offered to make against Mexico, already in the short term implemented in the European Union, migrants can no longer get into Europe. Migrants are not allowed to cross the Mediterranean sea. Allocated billions of euros of Turkey to not let across the border any refugee.
As many refugees moved to Evropou Germany many migrants with false documents began to expel from the country. Yesterday in Germany probably the first time in the history of Germany passed a major campaign against Islamic radicals. Was arrested a lot of people, seized a lot of extremist materials. Without a court decision, by the decree of the Minister of internal Affairs was closed several Islamic centers. These measures increase the sympathy of voters to Angela Merkel and her party.
OPINION: the Ruling elite of Germany somehow reacted to trump’s victory in the elections? This will affect its politics?
A. R.: the Issue of migrants is from American events alone. There is a certain panic in the elite level of the European Union. No one knows what to do with a person who do not share the so-called European values. Since European countries have long been not protect their own interests. While he was in office, Obama, these “values” have come to the fore in all political relations.
Now, in particular, trump announced that there was no TRANS-Atlantic free economic zone, as previously planned, will not be created. Economic rapprochement of the US and EU is canceled. In addition, during an election campaign trump announced a review of America’s position in NATO. It is clear that the Alliance is in any case will not be dismissed, but the American the cost of maintaining NATO be cut. Military Ministers of European countries now resolve issues on creation of joint military-industrial complex, emerged the idea of creating a European army. But do it in a short time is very difficult. All this talk is rather a sign of panic rather than deliberate policy. Real steps will be made after the first negotiations will take place.
As regards Ukraine, I believe, during his presidency, trump eliminated his decision, and from the EU they are already fully engaged in Germany and France.
OPINION: IN connection with the victory of trump talking about the element of surprise. Can he work in the elections in Germany? Perhaps the Chancellor will be the candidate of any opposition party, in particular of ADH or the left?
A. R.: For those who live in the narrow world of the elite and does not see what ordinary people think around, victory trump may have been unexpected. Not only in USA but also in Europe, many are dissatisfied with the policy pursued by the elites.
Europe praveet, and it’s obvious. As for Germany, the situation is quite different from the situation in other countries. Here at least half the population two hands supporting liberal ideology, and it will not allow to win “non-system” candidate.
“Alternative for Germany”, I believe, still part of the Parliament, it is theoretically possible to imagine that the SPD, left and green will get most, but keep in mind that the green in favor of an Alliance with the CDU. Moreover, Merkel is now doing everything to regain the trust of voters, in particular, to gain the sympathy of right, traditionalist part of the electorate. In Germany it is very difficult to imagine a different ruling coalition.
OPINION: it Turns out that the Russian opposition can blame Germany for the lack of democracy? Because there is no change of power.
A. R.: I Agree that the turnover of power as a sign of democracy is not about the Germans. Angela Merkel, if re-elected will be the third post-war Chancellor, who will be in power for 16 years. Before that 16 years this post was held by Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl. However, we have a Federal Chancellor is elected by Parliament, not popular vote, so that any direct analogies, I would hold not.