The Republican Donald trump has a good chance to win the presidential election on November 8, but his words “about Russia with love”, most likely, will remain words. To this conclusion came experts gathered at a round table in our editorial on Wednesday, November 2.
They also agreed that this election was unprecedented: both candidates have minimal support, and therefore, may not see out the end of a hard-won period. Congress has the ability to initiate impeachment. One of many pitfalls in their way.
“If mathematically calculated, then Hillary Clinton is almost possible to declare a winner, – says a senior researcher of the IMEMO Victoria Zhuravleva. But her victory very much depends on voter turnout. Its main strength is minorities, particularly African Americans, are known for their not very great political activity. Will she be able to mobilize them”?.
Public opinion polls do speak in favor of Clinton. But the Director of the Institute of political studies Sergei Markov believes that American sociologists have not yet learned to consider a protest vote, that is a situation where people vote not for their favorite candidate, and against the unloved. Hillary Clinton just represents the already rather overexposed Americans closed political elite, which, according to international journalist Mikhail Taratuta, “pupated”, “began to work on itself”.
“Sociologists predicted failure Brexit, and he won. Because trump is partly Republican and partly a protest vote, the pollsters can’t grasp. It is therefore safe to say that trump will get a little more than the polls, and Clinton is slightly smaller, the question is how much,” – concluded Sergey Markov. He also added that on the side Clinton the opportunity to become the first female President, the support of the American political elite, and contradictory figures of the trump.
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In the edition held a round table on the theme of elections of the President of the United States
“He “Zhirinovsky phenomenon”. Everyone loves to listen to him, but to make a President”, – said the expert. But still in favor of trump plays his image as a strong leader, who is in America now there is a big request, added Markov: “If Putin took part in the election, he would have won.”
But winning elections isn’t everything. Relations with Russia and with their own country’s candidates promise to emerge hard. As you know, Donald trump is more sympathetic to Moscow, but his bold policies are likely to run into opposition from Congress. “Then there is the problem with the democratic part of the Congress, and a Republican too. And the grim alternative for our beloved trump is just summing up an impeachment. For it will be easy to catch. This is easy to do, the story of Richard Nixon and bill Clinton have taught us that”, – believes Director of the Institute of USA and Canada studies Valery Garbuzov. At the same time “sophisticated politicians may under certain circumstances change. Therefore, in case of victory Clinton can not say that in Russian-American relations comes a black strip”, – the expert emphasizes.
But Hillary should not expect an easy life. As says Victoria Zhuravleva, a trail of scandals and potential criminal liability had already weakened her position in Congress and, unlike his predecessor, Barack Obama, she enjoys the great support of the people. The same can be said about trump.
“And trump’s and Clinton is likely to be a weak President,” that is, can not realize their promises,” concludes Victoria Zhuravleva. “In any case “win “the party United America,” which has ruled the country for 150 years and divided into two factions”, – summed up Sergey Markov.
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“Experts told why Clinton and trump scare voters Russia”