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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Gas pipelines of Ukraine was to live two years

After the European Commission has allowed “Gazprom” to use the Opal pipeline almost at full capacity, Ukraine was truly afraid that I would lose revenues from the transit of Russian gas to Europe. Kiev decided to turn to the EU with a request to reduce the purchase of “blue fuel” in our country, and to forbid Russia to build new gas transportation routes to the countries of the Old world.

There is no doubt that Brussels will refuse Square. Download the Russian gas pipeline “Nord stream”, the gas which fills the Opal, is growing every year. Turn on the construction of “Turkish stream” and “Nord stream 2”, after which the Ukrainian pipes will be useless, and Kiev will lose $2 billion for transit.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Ukraine asks the European Union to reduce imports of Russian gas and to impose a veto on the construction of new pipelines out of our country. It is expected that the Parliament will make a relevant resolution. Such an extreme step of Kiev came shortly after the European Commission has allowed “Gazprom” to increase the pumping of gas through the Opal pipeline by 30-40%.

This decision gave the Opal a second wind. This “pipe” was built in 2011, but its capacity is used only half, and virtually the sole supplier was the “Gazprom”. A barrier to the use of the pipeline all the way, served as the Third energy package. His point is that one supplier is not entitled to receive more than 50% in any of the pipelines leading to Europe. This prevented “Gazprom” to the full use of the existing “pipe” Nord stream, Opal of which receives a gas, and to begin construction of the “Nord stream 2”.

After the European Commission brought Opal out from under norms of the Third energy package, these restrictions cease to operate and “Gazprom” already nothing prevents to strengthen its dominant position on the market of the Old world.

But Ukraine will have hard times. In 2015, the Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine amounted to 67.5 billion cubic meters. Given that the capacity of the Ukrainian pipes on Russia’s border is 288 billion cubic meters, it is easy to calculate that Kiev uses the transportation system is less than a quarter. “Naftogaz” hastened to announce that if “Gazprom” will receive in Opal 30%, the transit will be reduced to 10-11 billion, while revenue — at $290-320 million If “Gazprom” will increase access to Opal by 40%, then Ukraine will lose up to 14.5 billion transit and up to $395-425 million in revenue.

But that’s not all. Russia ready new project “Turkish stream.” Its capacity is expected to surpass 32 billion to Complete the construction of this pipeline is planned in 2019. And it threatens Ukraine another $1 billion loss.

In addition, Europe no longer has anything against the “Nord stream 2”. Build two lines of this pipe can be up to 2020. Technical justification and other calculations are ready. Moreover, 49% of this pipeline is owned by European shareholders who have agreed to provide the investment for its construction. The capacity of the “Nord stream 2” on the paper is 55 billion cubic meters. Perhaps not so much required, and then period of construction will be reduced.

If all goes according to this plan, the total losses of “Naftogaz” and the Ukrainian budget will be at least $2 billion And despite the fact that revenues in the Square this year is planned at us $21 billion, we Can say that, having lost the opportunity to make a transit, Ukraine will lose up to 10% of revenues.

With regard to the request of Kiev to Europe to reduce gas purchases from Russia, then they look ridiculous. First, the Russian pipelines — has already been built and planned will be new, created by modern technology. Ukrainian transportation system is outdated and requires billions of dollars of investment. Second, the transport of gas on the same Nord stream is cheaper than the Ukrainian route. Thirdly, Ukraine has repeatedly been convicted of misappropriation gas intended for Europe. It is possible that this year will be no exception. In 2016, “Naftogaz” has pumped record small volumes of gas in its underground storage (14.7 billion cubic meters) and already started the selection of this fuel. According to conservative estimates, during the winter period Ukraine may not be enough to 2.3 billion, which it probably borrows from the transit pipeline.


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