Vladimir Putin all-taki will go on October 19 in Berlin to meet “channel four”. In the German capital, the Russian President will meet with Merkel and Poroshenko Allagnon. Meanwhile, more recently, Kiev said that negotiations will not be until until the DNI and LC will not agree to disarm. But Moscow responded that Ukraine should first tackle the political part of Minsk agreements. What has changed? We discussed with the experts.
Before Russia and Ukraine agreed to meet in the “Normandy format” Donbass shook two news.
Sunday, October 16, unknown persons blew up the legendary field commander of the DNI Arseniy Pavlov (Motorola) in the Elevator of his home in Donetsk.
See photo essay on the topic:
Peaceful everyday life was killed in the Donetsk militia of Motorola
The self-proclaimed representatives of the Republic were so shocked by what happened, immediately blamed Ukraine and promised to avenge the military and their families.. the head of the DND Alexander Zakharchenko announced the beginning of terrorist campaign of the war with Kiev.
And the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande supported the position that first Kiev will have full access to its border with Russia, and then fulfill the political part of Minsk agreements.
Did these events to convene the “Normandy meeting”, or it would have happened regardless of them, “MK” has found out from the experts.
Konstantin Bondarenko, head of the Fund “Ukrainian politics”:
– Coordination of the next meeting in the Normandy format, which took so long due to the fact that France and Germany needed a pause after the aggravation of the situation in Syria. This time, they used to choose their future geopolitical position between Russia and the United States.
As for the Minsk agreement, that none of the parties to the conflict is not going to perform adequately. To each item they have a number of claims, in connection with than two years, the peace process practically has not moved forward. I think that now Paris and Berlin will support Kiev in its requirement first to ensure the full observance of the truce, and only then go to local elections. But they did not succeed.
Mikhail Pogrebinsky, Director of Kiev center of political researches and conflictology:
– 17 Oct, everyone thought that the meeting in “Norman format” will not, as Kiev has rested in the requirement to respect the complete ceasefire, without which he does not agree to fulfill the political part of Minsk agreements: an Amnesty for the militias to hold elections in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as give them special status.
Probably, during the night, Paris and Berlin have been able to persuade Ukraine and Russia to compromise, according to which the DNI and the LC withdrawn their armed forces to a safe distance and Ukraine is the harmonization of the election law. This is the minimum that would justify the appointment for tomorrow.
But there is another option. Poroshenko travels to Berlin because he was ordered. It is important for him with one hand to do anything, and with another — not to be accused of disrupting Minsk. But the President of Russia Vladimir Putin goes because, first, he’s in no position to ignore the meeting, even if it did not lead to any serious promotion, and on the other hand, he does not want to put Merkel in the position of the loser, as it was organized a meeting in “Norman format”. This gesture of goodwill towards the German Chancellor, it may be necessary for the President to tip it on its side in the process of resolving the Syrian crisis.
Anyway, Putin will never agree to first DNI and the LC, disarmed, and then in their territory elections. This can only happen in stages. All statements Poroshenko on the contrary, that he had with someone about something agreed, are a direct and blatant lie. France and Germany have long advocated for parallelism in the implementation of the Minsk agreements, there is no reason why the EU could change their minds.
Denis Denisov, the head of the Ukrainian branch of the CIS Institute:
Most likely, the meeting became possible after the head of the DND Alexander Zakharchenko has promised to avenge the death of Motorola, which apparently blew up a Ukrainian saboteurs.
Kiev openly began to use terrorist methods of struggle with the militia, and it gives them a free hand for a symmetrical response. It is concerned not only Ukraine, but also Russia, France and Germany, which are the guarantors of observance of the Minsk agreement and do not want escalation of the conflict. However, I do not think that the situation in Syria somehow could affect the talks on Ukraine. They are different conflicts for which the permit need not like each other approaches.
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