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Friday, October 21, 2016

“Anti-sanctions” Poroshenko will only increase the circulation of “black money”

At first glance, Ukraine’s decision to ban the work of Russian payment systems just clears the market for American competitors. In fact Petro Poroshenko with his own hands worsens the economic situation of their citizens, provokes a rise in crime and a further fall of the hryvnia. “Ukraine has driven itself into a corner,” say the Ukrainian economists.

The package of new sanctions against Russia the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko banned in their country the activities of the Russian payment systems, said UNIAN. The corresponding decree published on Tuesday.

“According to unofficial data, in the first eight months of this year across all channels in our country has received about $ 5 billion. The money actually saved our balance of payments”

In particular, the decree prohibits the operation of payment systems “Golden crown”, “Hummingbird” (formerly “Blitz”), “International remittances “Leader”, “Unistream”, Blizko and Anelik. In addition, other sanctions will affect a total of 271 Russian company, 682 individuals.

Sanctions will complicate the lives of millions of Ukrainians, said RIA “Novosti” in the press service fell under the ban of the payment system “Leader”. “As far as we know, there was one money transfer system, which operates in Ukraine through a company registered in one of the countries of the former Soviet Union. These sanctions will create difficulties in the first place for millions of Ukrainian citizens working in different States. Now the only way to transfer money to the American system – Western Union and MoneyGram”, – said the press service.

According to the company, in the past year, translations of Ukrainian citizens working in other countries to their homeland amounted to 5.5 billion dollars. The lion’s share went through the Russian payment system – mainly for the simple reason that the bulk of Ukrainian migrant workers working in Russia. “We were cheaper, easier and clearer. Thus, you can evaluate the loss to the economy of Ukraine”, – noted in the company.

Ukraine again whipped itself

President of the Ukrainian analytical center Oleksandr Okhrimenko believes that Kiev has punished itself. “In the first half of the year Ukraine received private remittances at $ 1.7 billion. (of which $ 1.2 billion. of Russia)”, – said the expert. While 36% of transfers were made via the payment system “Western Union” (Western Union), which ranked first, 16% MoneyGram. And all other translations were made using the now banned Russian systems.

In an interview with the newspaper VIEW Okhrimenko reminded that the us payment system in Ukraine on average charge a Commission of 50% higher than Russian, besides the offices of “Western Union” is far from all Ukrainian provinces. “This system takes the first place only because it is an international monopoly,” he explained.

Almost the entire the currency market of Ukraine keeps on remittances primarily from Russia and from countries with large Ukrainian Diaspora – from the United States and Canada. “According to unofficial data, in the first eight months of this year across all channels in our country has received about $ 5 billion. The money actually saved our balance of payments. Russia, despite the fact that recent transfers out decreased significantly, still in the lead on the volume of transfers. Followed by the USA and then Western European countries”, – said the economist.

“From the point of view of political PR campaign – just gorgeous – admitted Okhrimenko. – It has already caused a wave of jubilation in the Ukrainian editions, the divine imminent victory over Putin. But from an economic point of view, Ukraine has driven itself into a corner. As an economist I believe that any trade war is bad, and do not welcome any sanctions from the Ukrainian side, no similar prohibitions on the part of Russia”.

Just increase the flow of “black money”

“It is clear that the amount will drop significantly, and this money will either remain in Russia or will be imported black cash as they are partially imported, that is a manifestation of criminality”, – predicts Director of the Ukrainian Institute of policy analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik.

In his opinion, the imposition of sanctions “to some extent, for the President was forced to act, which, of course, negatively affect the balance of payments of Ukraine, and will exert pressure on the exchange rate of hryvnia against key currencies”. Migrant workers will remain an alternative to “Western Union” or some of the Baltic system, however, “their services are expensive, and they don’t work everywhere,” quoted Bortnik TASS.

The Director of the Kyiv center of political marketing Vasily Stoyakin doubt that in retaliation, Moscow banned all remaining routes of transfers to Ukraine, as the decision Poroshenko “in the first place hit by the Ukrainians themselves”. On the contrary, says Stoyakin, “in response, Moscow could create another payment system to facilitate the citizens of Ukraine the opportunity to send money home”, and then sympathy for Russia among Ukrainian migrant workers will only grow.

According to the economist, this is the case when the action is so absurd that it is hard to imagine the possible reaction. “For example, if Peter said that if Russia does not withdraw its troops from the Donbass, he will hang himself, I think, Putin began to persuade him not to do it, and the Patriarch would send him a letter with a request not to take a sin on soul” – ironically the expert in interview to the newspaper VIEW.


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