Last Sunday, October 16, in the smallest of the former republics of Yugoslavia, Montenegro held parliamentary elections, which have not passing value. This Republic with 127-km-long coastal line on the Adriatic and has a population of just over 600 thousand men, besides a tourist attraction, has an important role of the “crotch strap” to neighboring Serbia in the geopolitical sense. In fact, the only land route connecting Belgrade to the sea, threatens to close.
At the head of Montenegro for more than 25 years since the start of the collapse of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is a politician with very dubious past – Milo Djukanovic.
For yet unproven charges of this man, which the Swiss and Italian prosecutors, after the imposition of sanctions against Yugoslavia in the ‘ 90s he organized and oversaw the channel smuggling of cigarettes and drugs from Cyprus to Italy. The territory of Montenegro was used as a transit point from which the Italian coast less than 200 km. This channel could work for more than 15 years prior to the date of the proclamation of Montenegro’s independence from Serbia in 2006.
Suspicions of the Italian prosecutors mentioned the amount of 1 billion euros, which could unlawfully enrich themselves, the organizers of this channel. Naturally, the process against Mr. Djukanovic can begin only after the expiration of diplomatic immunity, which was granted as a five-time Prime Minister and one-time President of Montenegro.
The real causes of the Montenegrin independence referendum need to look in the same place – after the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic Milo Djukanovic tired of paying for the patronage of Belgrade, he decided to enter the new level. By the way, today “55 percent convincing support Montenegrin independence” in the referendum in may 2006 actively studied by supporters of secession of Vojvodina is the last remaining part of Serbia the Autonomous province. Fortunately, while they have their Djukanovic.
The question of legalization on the West illegally obtained funds to politicians of the post-socialist space is always tightly connected with the political preferences that they can provide in response.
In the case of Montenegro, such gratitude is the entry of the Republic into the North Atlantic Alliance, opposed to 80% of the population. And it is not only in the historical focus on Russia, specific to this land, but, primarily, with the NATO bombing of Montenegro, 1999. For example, at the bottom of a beautiful Bay Lustica at the entrance of the Boka Bay are still dozens of bombs with the uranium filling, resulting in higher mortality from cancer of residents of the area.
Exactly a year ago at the end of October 2015 to Montenegro swept completely uncharacteristic first wave of protests, the main meaning of which was a protest against joining NATO. Then Djukanovic resist, utilizing fully the security forces and organizing the real repression against unwanted activists.
Now the results of the parliamentary election, he has already announced his victory to get a formal advantage in one seat over the opposition in the new Assembly. However, the opposition to the “Democratic front”, a coalition of the “Key” movement “Democrats” and Social-democratic party, the elections were not recognized and announced the preparation of mass protest actions.
The fact that in the last election a large number of observers (a record for all time of observation elections in Montenegro) have documented massive fraud. Nothing new: the massive transportation of voters (formally citizens of Montenegro) from the neighboring republics, the carousel, the buying of votes. For individual observers, the price of voices in the crowded Republic came to 250 euros (!).
To strike fear in the voter and force him to rally around the government, the election day was announced about the arrest of a group of “Serbian commandos” led by retired General of the Serb gendarmerie, who prepared almost the kidnapping Djukanovic and the seizure of the Parliament building. According to unconfirmed information, this was not done without the help of people from the westernized environment of the Prime Minister of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic associated with Montenegrin top.
At the moment, the Republican election Commission has not yet announced the official results of the election, however, it is now clear – the permanent Milo Djukanovic for the first time since 1991, faced with the real threat to their own monopoly position.
As it may happen in the future? In that case, if all the opposition parties will withdraw the entire list of candidates, the new Assembly will be unqualified, as 39 of the 81 mandate will not be distributed. The Parliament can not be healthy if it is attended by at least two thirds of the deputies. But that the Montenegrin opposition will need to truly unite and to remove all internal differences, at least at the time of the protests. In this case, Djukanovic faced with the necessity of new parliamentary elections in a short time, the result of which will depend on the activity of opposition parties. Otherwise, Montenegro will become a NATO bridgehead, the closing ring of “friends” around Serbia.
However, in any case, more than 70 percent turnout and 104 only officially instituted by the Prosecutor in cases of violations for the small Montenegro means access to a new round of political activity of citizens, which, in the absence of concessions from the authorities, may be the most unpredictable. Just imagine the Ukrainian Maidan with a Caucasian flavor and the almost obligatory presence of the house small arms and light weapons.
Djukanovic miscalculated – Turkmenbashi possible in Asia but not in Europe. And if he does not understand, we are waiting for another hot spot on the map of the Balkans.