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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Trump can win the popular vote but lose the election

Before the U.S. election only three weeks. Wednesday will be the last debate Hillary Clinton and Donald trump – and the campaign leaves on a home straight. To predict the winner in the most unusual elections in recent US history is impossible – although the polls and the press promise the victory to the former first lady, according to the logic of the campaign and the situation in the United States must win the billionaire.

Trump, who has burst – so speak and write for more than a year. When at the end of last summer it suddenly became clear that “the eccentric billionaire” is ahead of all other Republican candidates. Now he will blow – promised his opponents and independent analysts. But trump won the Republican primaries – although opposed by almost the entire party establishment. And in late summer of this year, trump briefly bypassed in the polls to Hillary Clinton – but then most of the American press predicted his defeat. Over the last three weeks, trump has won two series of debate but after them he predicted defeat.

“If Trump will be able to mobilize a significant part of the previously went to the polls the Americans, he will win with a significant margin”

The last straw that was supposed to kill trump was supposed to be released on the eve of the second debate, incriminating evidence – a recording of his conversation 11 years ago, where it is extremely obscene talked about their harassment to a friend, and about women in General. Now, Trump is exactly the end – concluded the American press. But surprisingly, even the polls has witnessed appreciable damage to trump’s rating from “lethal compromising evidence”. He’s still behind Clinton – the majority of polls shows the gap from 2 to 7. The situation is even worse in the electoral College – forecasts promise Clinton 340 electors, 198 trump.

But the fact is that survey data is extremely vulnerable. Even if you do not think about the possible deliberate manipulation of the selection of respondents that would not surprising, given that Clinton openly serves the majority of the mass media, think tanks, and financial-political establishment as a whole, and the stakes in this election are as high as ever – there is something to pay attention to.

First, and this is acknowledged by the American sociologists, many supporters of the trump embarrassed to talk about their likes – there is nothing strange, because the billionaire for a year as treats most of the media and so-called “opinion leaders”. So a certain amount of trapistov can just hide their determination to vote for “fascist-sexist-racist” – that will not prevent them from coming to the polls on 8 November.

Second, trump like so many of those Americans who previously were not interested and did not participate in the elections – because no such candidate (famous all over the country, politically incorrect, while not belonging to the political elite), no such violent elections in the United States have not had. We are talking about tens of millions of potential voters – in the last 20 years, turnout in presidential elections ranged from 49 to 58 percent.

If Trump will be able to mobilize a significant portion of this unaccounted (including often in databases, in which respondents are selected for surveys) silent electorate, he could win with a significant difference.

While trump may lose – not because of unpopularity, but because it works against the entire political machine of the United States. On Sunday, trump wrote that “elections are rigged unfair and biased media that push ahead of Hillary Clinton. The same happens at the polls. Sad,” and his supporter, former new York mayor Giuliani said he would believe in honest elections in Philadelphia and Chicago “only if you forget everything that I learned over 40 years in politics.”

Now even the Republican apparatus in several States can play vs trump – not to mention the fact that the Democrats are so much better built “machine for voting”: mobilizing voters from various minorities, which makes the main bet Clinton. Generally speaking, if white men would vote on 8 November less likely than women of color, trump will lose.

But even if trump will be able to mobilize their voters get more votes than Clinton, he could lose the election – because everything is decided in swing States. They are now 10 – where the difference between candidates is small. Trump needs to win in most of them – is that sociology gives him an advantage of only 2. But in the largest of swing States such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina trump inferior to Clinton from 1.5 to 3.5 percent – which is within the statistical error.

Another important reason to doubt the sociology is the intensity of the campaign, trump hit with such force and fury that it makes you wonder how bad the reality of the case at Clinton. After all, against the trump openly not only the mainstream media and the vast majority of various celebrities (from Hollywood to the political), but a large part of the Republican establishment, including most of the oligarchic sponsors of the party.

Trump announced simultaneously incompetent and aggressive, the enemy of minorities and women, in addition, also Putin’s puppet. If the blow was delivered along the lines of “trump – the enemy of minorities”, in recent weeks clearly remains only two themes: women and Putin. Victory trump best of Russia interfering in our elections through cyber attacks and the game against Clinton, and billionaire fascinated by Putin and fails to protect the interests of the United States – that’s the main message. But the influence of the “Russian factor” on the electorate clearly not great – much safer to beat on the “female line”.

In addition to recording conversation 2005 began to appear, and memories of the women, which in the past were molested trump. Look, all these revelations are not very seriously – one story in the early eighties about molesting in the plane, the other about a decade ago, the kiss in the Elevator. About any use of official position, cheating wives and even more rape, no question – and this against the background of already known all across the country stories of spouses Clinton.

Which, and this emphasizes the trump, the important thing is not the adventures of bill, and then, as Hillary pressed on his “girlfriends” are trying to hush up the scandals. Trump effectively discourages all charges, turning on much worse, especially from a female point of view, the behavior of Hillary. The bottom line is against him there is only the entry with racy story about how he, “the star”, unsuccessfully molested the woman who was considered easy prey. Ugly – to put it mildly – but what did you learn from this record, the Americans?

Trump already more than three decades, a nationwide “star” – he’s always been brutal, said sharply and simply, was married three times, led the talk shows and staged beauty contests, led the lifestyle of a billionaire from a gloss. Besides it the new Yorker – that is, initially, not like most “normal Americans.” Nothing fundamentally new, such that it does not jibe with the way trump the Americans in recent days, he did not know about.

Attempts by Democrats to make the most of the recording of “chatter in the locker room” is clear – but how they do it, rather working against them. Because Delano outraged by trump, they habitually a hypocrite, and lying. Maybe Michelle Obama is sincere when he says that she is “shocked to the core” “shocking” statements of trump, do not meet “basic standards of human dignity” – but how to believe Vice-President Biden when he says that “not remember any of this “talk in the locker room” and even “most men don’t lead such conversations.”

American movies, of course, quite cynically, in the image of the moral mores of the political class of his country – but even without reference to the famous TV series it’s hard not to see the Vice-President of the most Horny countries banal lies. And this, oddly enough, is also working on trump because when the voter sees as Clinton or Biden make round eyes and forced outraged “cynicism trump”, he understands that politicians habitually lie to him again, and lying publicly. That is doing what they accuse and trump – hot denunciation of the mendacity of the ruling political class of a billionaire and supports a large part of his supporters. Trump, at least, honest – builds himself, who is not a hypocrite before the voters.

Great trust the press, rascal trump, either. As noted by his teammate, candidate for Vice-President Michael Penny, media are deliberate support for Clinton, ignoring the facts that are in favor of trump, but “people see the overwhelming bias in the national media”.

No sexist scandals will not be able to stop trump – but he really can not become President of the United States. This is not a tragedy for Russia – but it is artificial, smanipulirovannye elites defeat will bring a lot of problems in the USA. Both outside and especially inside the country – because trump is the reaction of the American society of those diseases that has infected the States of the globalist-minded elite. If Americans now take a chance to try to recover – the abscess may rupture and pus into the blood. Us – in the first place.


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