“Turning point” in the war against the so-called “Islamic state” (IG, is prohibited in the Russian Federation terrorist group) called the U.S. Secretary of defense Ashton Carter began an offensive in Iraqi Mosul. Recall that the city is the second largest in Iraq – is under control of fighters from 2014. In the operation to liberate Mosul, the beginning of which was announced by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi participate as the security forces of the Republic and the Sunni and Kurdish. In fact, it is the diversity of the forces fighting with ISIS, carries one of the main problems for Mosul, in the case of sat the city will be released. What to expect from surgery, “MK” talked to an expert.
– It is hardly possible to speak about radical change in the fight against ISIS – says leading researcher of the Center for international security, IMEMO RAS, Stanislav IVANOV. Rather, a consensus has been reached on the question of post-war Mosul. An obstacle to the assault and liberation of the city was not the correlation of forces and the differences of the parties interested in control over the region. Turkey believed that it was her wilayat, and it must maintain its position there – directly or via Pro-Turkish Sunni groups, Turkomans, etc.. Iraq, in turn, believed that control should remain in Baghdad, under the rule of the Shiites. Iraqi Kurds also claim if you are not in full control of Mosul, then at least to ensure that they were represented in the regional bodies of power and maintained its influence, without discrimination from local Arab population. That is around Mosely was fierce preliminary fighting – on the subject of who should rule there.
– What’s she been?
– As far as I know, disputes between the aforementioned parties is still going. Turkey and the Sunnis are strongly against the participation of the Shiite militias. But Iraqi authorities are forced to use them because that army, which was created by the Americans since 2003 to 2011, in the summer of 2014 actually kicked the bucket.
Therefore, the consensus until the end are unlikely to achieve, in this weakness upcoming. And fierce fighting is hardly to expect. Because on the one hand no one wants to die for the government, as it is not the best way proven in the eyes of Iraqis. On the other hand there are militants who are willing not only to kill but also to die.
– How much time in this regard can take the battle for the city, and whether they will be crowned with success?
– There are two options. If the IG will not be able to agree, the battles can purchase prolonged. Given that there are still about one million civilians are unlikely to be bombing in Eastern Aleppo: militants will naturally hide behind people as a human shield, will hide in the catacombs, etc., and fights can drag on indefinitely.
There is another scenario – one that, for example, has been made by the Turks in Northern Syria. That is, Turkey – or even Americans – will be able to negotiate with the militants, perhaps even to pay them. May be provided to the corridor, in order to redirect them to where they will be more useful for the Western coalition, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. We must not forget that militants supplied weapons through the intelligence agencies, non-governmental funds, including Saudi and Qatar, and it is unlikely now they just throw the terrorists in the lurch.
The second option will allow Americans to the election of Mosul to solve the problem and focus on Syria.
It is worth noting also that the liberation of Mosul is in the interests of both Russia and the West. But who will then control the city, won’t there be any fighting between the Iraqi forces, or between Turkey and Iran – the big question. And the consequences of the liberation of the city in this regard trudnoprohodim. The fact that Mosul will be liberated – an axiom. But his fate may serve as a bone of contention for both internal and external players.
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