Elective passions subsided, MPs settled into their new offices, has managed to offer a few frankly clownish initiatives like replacement of the soft chairs in the conference room on hard, and it is time to examine what awaits us now in the guise of the Parliament in the next six years. Rather, what can we expect from the updated lower chamber.
Just say “nothing good” and that’s to finish the analysis, of course, a very barbaric, but true. I, however, will try to take a close look not so much on the new inhabitants of the Okhotny Ryad, how much of the current Duma as a whole. Why is it necessary power, what goals set by the Kremlin.
Let’s go through the list: the legitimacy of the elections — in the first place. It was necessary to enlist the support of society now, when the Ukrainian wave sleep and no “spies” it will not raise. Do not forget that on the nose presidential elections.
And, secondly, to the right and the opportunity to take money from us under the slogan: “Crisis, but you hold fast.”
Third: control the Parliament, but to update it with new faces, bright with single-seat districts, able to create the appearance of debate.
So those are three goals, each of which is very far from the needs of the country. We need a reform dialogue with the world and resuscitation of the economy. None of this Duma is not capable of.
The purpose of the first: the legitimacy for which the CEC has thrown Ella Pamfilova, canceled elections in Barvikha and even brought a few criminal cases (which will end, most likely, does). The whole idea of the Kremlin with the legitimacy of the people said a record low turnout. The people clearly showed the state that does not believe in him (note, not him, it has long been clear, and it is in him that it is all able to do something right). However, the government did not disappoint and in the best traditions of Shura Balaganov cheated. Remember how at the end of the “Golden calf” Shura, already wealthy, the habit of pulling a wallet from his pocket and gets? That “fair elections”, who inflicted a crushing blow to the reputation of the government, was the wallet. It was not possible to steal, not to draw 62,2%, not to spend money in black accounts, not to bring buses of forced laborers and to rein in the national regions with their “electoral anomaly” (read utter contempt some out there counting the votes, but simply the announcement of a Grand under 100%, numbers). All of this would be possible — but impossible. Because habits Shura Balaganov become instinct. And one of Ella Pamfilova’s not enough to stop it.
So people in the government do not believe, and it is their disbelief was fully justified. Hence the conclusion: the problem of legitimacy of such an election decided exactly the opposite. All the opinion polls of the government (the Duma and the government) don’t trust three quarters of the population of the country. But the dissatisfaction with the election results say more than half of Russians, they are even ignored.
However, the absence of protests, similar performances of 2011, is easily explained. People believe that with this government not to do nothing. So, the first goal is to enlist the support of society — not achieved. We are in a classical situation “the people are silent”: to shout in support of no one here be free, but the heavy silence that everyone until then will continue to interpret in their favor, is more than enough. What ends silence — recall?
Now the second goal formulated by the Prime Minister in his excellent aphorism “no money”. The right to take money from us the state does not have — see, as they say, paragraph 1. But the opportunity got. We are back to the Shura Balaganov. The right to carry the wallet on him, no, but the possibilities are rife.
The methods will be different: for example, another “anti-sanctions”. Suppose, for example, over Syria, should us something else to successfully bomb, the West will impose an embargo on the purchase of our oil — and it is here that the government and hit in all heavy, from the ban on foreign drugs to the inflation tax. While this is only estimations: to raise the excise tax, to impose a fee for leaving the country — a lot of variants. Guess here will undertake, the thoughts of the Kremlin sages go whimsical ways, West to us Magnitsky list, and we have him — the massacre of the innocents in the form of “law of scoundrels” (aka Dima Yakovlev).
In General (minute practical advice) saving for a rainy day may soon need.
But the third goal is achieved. 146%. All members completely under control: there will not be even and a pair of “renegades”, which goes against the party line (the same one). In this case the Parliament passed the most odious personality — “geoparty”, prosecutors with the Royal icons and other Shapoklyak. They will not be difficult to show foreign colleagues the true face of Russian parliamentarism.
It is only at best be a Shura Balaganov, and at worst — you do not want to think.
In fact, the model of behavior for the members have been ready: every day the Ministry of foreign Affairs, the military, the press Secretary of the President and others like them tell us about the “hysterical Russophobia”, “blackmail and forgery”, “incredible cynicism” and other disgusting qualities of their foreign colleagues. If such language they used in everyday life, it would already have a reputation for tram boors, but this is politics.
Would not worry too much over this, but such rhetoric blurs the boundaries of the norm, and the distance from words to action is reduced. First you say that over “the boundaries of strategic patience” in relation to the hysterical Russophobes, then they supply in Syria, With 300 to show exactly where these boundaries ended, and in the end, “slow missiles float away into the distance,” as sung in a dark nursery rhyme.
So even the most clownish and the most forced, buffoon Duma, designed to entertain the king with his obscene antics can be dangerous. Will.
Here it would be appropriate, in the spirit of inveterate political scientists, to analyze the appointment of the speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, to reason, and why he was thrown into the Parliament to look at the sharply reduced share of the other three, in addition to the EP factions, but it does not make sense.
Who cares how many gears in a clock, tied to a box of dynamite? What will probably happen: explode a bomb or sapper cut the red wiring.
The Magnitsky List. Chronicle of events