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Monday, March 19, 2018

The Russo-Chinese link will change the world

The visit of Vladimir Putin in Beijing for the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the victory in the Second world war will be for it already the 14th visit to China. Relations between the two countries have consistently improved in all 15 years of Putin, but in the last two years, the convergence of our powers becomes the main event in geopolitics. The history of our two countries are doomed to become guarantors of peace in Eurasia, and hence all over the world.

The Russians and the Han Chinese was found on open spaces of Eurasia in historical terms not so long ago. The Chinese, the most ancient of preserving the statehood of the peoples began to come into contact with the Russians in a difficult for the Han Chinese civilization of the time.

“The scrapping of the world-American, possibly smooth, it becomes the most important condition for the further development of Russia and China”

Except for a brief sojourn time in one state at the end of the 13th century the Russians and the Han Chinese were part of the power, which was first called the Mongolian government (Horde), and then the yuan Empire – the first contacts took place only four years ago, when the Russians began systematically to develop Siberia. But the first contract was signed just 325 years ago, and more or less regular contacts and study each other began after in Beijing the Russian spiritual mission in 1712.

By this time, Russia has greatly expanded to the East, reaching still, however, to the Pacific ocean, and our countries become neighbours. However, touched only the outskirts of the empires, which were mostly not representatives of the titular Nations. But that was not the main obstacle to rapprochement with each other, and even not a closed and self-sufficient nature of the Chinese state. There were two subjective reasons related to the periods of development of our States.

One of them was that at the moment the main attention of the Russian authorities was concentrated on the Western and southern borders of the country. To the remote and undeveloped East was really hard to get, besides a policy of Europeanization of both the country and the elite, beginning with Peter the great, was decisive. And the second reason was that China was already close to crisis period of its history. Like everything else in this country, it had a huge temporal scales: from the late 18th century, China is beginning to weaken, and his wealth of hands mastered and subjugated already almost the whole world to the West. In the 19th century China military force to open up, to earn on it, including all hopped up on opium by the local population. The main “discoverers” was, of course, English, but other Western countries are not left behind.

The century of national humiliation and chaos. China lost control of trade, power weakened, began internal unrest and rebellion. Russia in the 19th century came to the Pacific ocean, concluding with China the same unequal Treaty, as the countries of the West. We received Primorye, which, however, at this time almost was not inhabited and was considered rather a territory, a vassal to China, than were part of the Empire. And then rented a number of cities in Manchuria, after which started to build the railroad to Vladivostok and received from the Chinese out of the naval base of Port Arthur.

In 1900, when China was raging uprising against foreigners, the Russian troops as part of a coalition of the Western powers took Beijing. It seemed that China finally turns into a huge semi-colony of the West and Russia. In fact, Russia and into China, looking at how there hosted the Western countries – not so much not afraid to catch much wanting to create a counterbalance to the military and geopolitical presence of the Europeans on their Eastern borders.

But soon everything changed. After the Bolshevik revolution, Russia began to move closer to China, who fell in those same years, in the period of full-scale civil war and unrest that lasted 30 years.

The idea of social equality and anti-imperialist attitude of the Soviet Union have made our country attractive to Chinese people – ideologically and geopolitically. First, the nationalist Kuomintang under sun Yat Arsene, and then fought with the successor of sun Chiang Kai-shek, the Communist party, Mao Zedong looked at Moscow as an important ally. In addition, Russia has provided China with military assistance, but not for the civil war, and to protect its sovereignty.

Indeed, in 1931, in addition to the civil war in China collapsed, and even external aggressor – Japan took the North-East of the country, creating a vassal state of Manchukuo headed by the former Chinese Emperor. The civil war continued and stopped only in 1937, but in the same year, the Japanese began pushing deep into China, taking Beijing. The Soviet Union helped in the war with the Japanese and the Kuomintang, and the Communist party, but to defeat the samurai, the Chinese could not. After the entry of the USSR into the war and the approach of our army in Manchuria the Japanese surrendered in China was released.

Despite the fact that established following the Second world war, new world order, China was recognized as a great power and became one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, the country still has not emerged from a period of chaos and renewed civil war, a victory which four years later was won by the Communist party. Soviet Union all the time was helping the Communists, but secretly, because it was necessary to maintain relations with the official authorities that although he was openly Pro-Western, but formally it is from them we again received a lease of the naval base of Port Arthur and the Chinese Eastern railway. The victory of the CCP was a turning point in the history of China and in the balance of power on the world stage.

Mao Zedong didn’t just win the war, he unified China, becoming on par with Qin Shi Huang and Kublai, grandson of Genghis Khan. For the West, Communist China, confident that the Americans have believed her, based on the fact that Chiang Kai-shek, their ally, came as a shock. A few years in the US, there were disputes about who of American politicians “lost China”. The West didn’t know what to do with emerged from the war victorious Soviet Union became a superpower and controlled half of Europe, and now the huge red Empire occupied most of Eurasia. Who controls Eurasia, who controls the whole world – the first law of geopolitics, formulated by the Anglo-Saxon strategists, Atlanticists have never forgotten.

Besides the Sino-Soviet bloc was not just geopolitical but also ideological dimension of the Communist idea has gained more and more supporters not only in Western Europe but in the third world that the West was forced to free from colonial influence. Anti-imperialist appeals, Moscow and Beijing resonated in Africa, Asia and even Latin America.

To counter Sino-Russian block, it seemed, was impossible – no us-China war, which became part of the Korean war of 1950-1953 or the deprivation of Beijing in the UN (States blocked the transfer of representation from Taiwan, China until 1972) could not stop the rise of China. The USSR helped a lot of armament of the Chinese army and building a new economy, the first Chinese industrialization. Moreover, all the unfair acquisition times of “national humiliation”, such as leased CER and Port Arthur were returned to Beijing in the shortest possible time. It seemed that the eternal friendship will be unbreakable and strong, but summed up the personal factor.

Relationship of Mao Zedong and Nikita Khrushchev, especially since the last was in 1957, the sole ruler of the USSR, to put it mildly, did not work – no understanding. Mao believed that it was wrong to fight against “cult of personality” of Stalin, which they valued as a Marxist, and as geopolitics and as an ally, especially when it has become overtly destructive to the socialist camp and the Communist theory of nature.

Mao was set on a brutal struggle against world imperialism and capitalism and called to increase pressure on the United States throughout the world, tuning in a similar spirit, everything of the Communist party and left-wing forces in third world countries. And Khrushchev rushed from the tough confrontation between the US and provocations to dialogue and compromise that have caused Mao justifiable doubts as to his ideology and principles. Mao was alerted and the visit of Khrushchev to US in 1959, where Prime Minister a day later arrived in Beijing for the celebration of the 10th anniversary of the PRC, and even more his place in Chinese ports of the Soviet Navy.

Khrushchev genuinely justified this by the need to protect China from Americans with their bases in Taiwan, Japan and Korea, but Mao proposed to transfer to the Soviet seamen operational command which was created with Soviet assistance, the Chinese Navy. Mao saw this as a manifestation of colonial thinking, attempting to subdue China, which contrasted with the position of Stalin and tried to convince him of “revisionism” (i.e. betrayal of Marxism-Leninism with its anti-imperialist struggle) Khrushchev.

Dissatisfaction with each other was accumulated as the differences regarding specific and theoretical issues in the Communist world. In the end, the opinion of the greater part of Soviet specialists, and then the actual ideological conflict, first made public, and since 1961 is already apparent, and gradually led to the curtailment and all inter-state relations. Khrushchev was a revisionist China, and even his removal from his post in the autumn of 1964 did not fix the situation, even though the conflict with China and was one of the main foreign policy reasons for a forced resignation expendables “voluntarist”.

The Union of the two great Eurasian powers collapsed, and the consequences of the collapse of the Sino-Soviet bloc has turned negative for both countries.Major battles in China against Japan compared to other major battles of the Second world

Soon in 1966, China entered a period of party politics and class struggle, cultural revolution, and the country went into full withdrawal, limiting contacts with the individual countries of Africa and Asia and sympathetic to the Maoist revolutionaries. China had projected itself as a backbone of the world revolution, having in mind not only the third world but also in Western countries. Mao became the idol of the radical left part of the riots of 1968 in Europe and the black Panthers in the United States, but in 1971, Kissinger flew to Beijing, and in the triangle US – USSR – China has experienced some revolutionary changes. Mao was still afraid of the Soviet Union, is unfair considering successors Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Kosygin “Soviet hegemonists” (it was light weight, Marxist verified a synonym of the term “imperialist”), and went to the reconciliation with Washington, which two decades did not have any contacts.

States had the opportunity to play the “China card” against the Soviet Union and “Soviet” against China and building relationships with both countries in the absence of contacts and enmity between Moscow and Beijing, to occupy the advantageous geopolitical position. By the time when the Soviet Union and China have matured to the pursuit of reconciliation – occurred in the mid-80s, even before Gorbachev came to power it was already too late to restore old or build new.

In China, already was undergoing economic reform with the involvement of foreign capital (initially, however, ethnically Chinese, overseas Chinese, overseas Han Chinese), and in the USSR reforms inept and naive foreign policy Gorbachev plunged the country into crisis. Gorbachev’s visit to Beijing in may 1989 was not historical – the first in thirty years contact at the highest level ended with the remark of Deng Xiaoping, who in conversation with his assistant Secretary, “a fool.” Not because of “velikorusskogo chauvinism”, and after hearing the arguments of the Secretary General on reforms in the Soviet Union and its “new thinking for the world.”

In the same 1989, China came under American sanctions, and the USSR began to lose the Eastern Europe and two years later broke up. All the 90s China was gaining power – not challenging the USA and strengthening its domestic power and from economic expansion in developing countries (in search of raw materials). The Russian elite tried to make part of the Western world, and China was considered our country only as a trading partner, trying to extract a lesson from the rapid collapse of communism in his former stronghold.

Even though we had common interests in preventing the penetration of the United States in Central Asia, allies, our countries could not be – distrust of Beijing by combining the geopolitical thinking of the Russian authorities and the Russian orientation of the ruling class in the West left no opportunity for strategic relations. Therefore, Yevgeny Primakov with his conception of the axis Moscow – Delhi – Beijing, and even Boris Yeltsin with his famous “As we with Jiang Zemin say, so be it, but not bill Clinton will decide”, said in Beijing three weeks before the resignation from the post of President, was only a hint that relations between the two countries may be very different.

Vladimir Putin’s first years were building economic relations with China. However, the Beijing that time is not yet ripe to open the announcement of global ambitions. Led in the zero years of China Hu Jintao was careful and soft leader, as was demanded by the era of accumulation of forces. But who came to power in 2012, XI Jinping, belongs to quite another type is the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao and Deng. And, most importantly, China itself has entered a phase of movement to the peak of its power – a year of implementation of the “Chinese dream” has long been named 2020. The return of Putin to the Kremlin and the election of the si President of the PRC coincided accidentally, but the strained relations of both Russia and China with the US was completely natural.

Putin announced the turn to the East formally after the beginning of the conflict with the West over Ukraine, but also strategic relations with China and the priority development of the Far East has been declared in his election papers beginning of 2012. Building a strategic partnership has been predetermined by the geopolitical objectives of the two States need not just to resist the policy of containment, which the US carried out in respect of that of China (yet in a mild form), Russia (already hard) and start working on creating a new world architecture – financial, economic, and geopolitical. Structures, which will replace collapsing our eyes to the world of the American breaking of which possibly smooth, it becomes the most important condition for the further development of Russia and China.

But not only pragmatic interests cemented the Union of the two great neighbors – we have more similar ethical attitudes underlying spiritual codes of our civilizations (which, incidentally, manifests itself through a strong love of the Chinese to the Soviet films about the war, for example, “the dawns here are quiet”). Of course, in order to in the mass, and the Russian and the Chinese were convinced that the way it is, it is necessary, overcoming the imposed global matrix of stereotypes, to make even greater efforts to vzaimootnoshenia. With regard to relations between the two leaders, not only their personal qualities but also comprehension of their experience of the Union 50 years, including both objective and subjective reasons for its collapse, will allow them to build the Foundation of relations between the two countries.

If Putin and XI will be able to reinforce the geopolitical Alliance course at the mutual sympathy of two civilizations, assigns intangible values of the above material, such bundle can be not only durable, but also much stronger Union 50 years. That is the fulcrum that will really change the world.


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