The Nobel peace prize to the Tunisian national dialogue Quartet was greeted with undisguised surprise, even in the West. But awarding the Tunisians there is a logic: on the background of fire in the Islamic world the West wants to mention the only example of a democratic continuation of the “Arab spring”. But if Tunisia could serve as a model for other Arabs?
With all the understanding that the Nobel prize has become purely a propaganda tool, many expected that the winner would be one of the celebrities – for example, Merkel and Pope Francis. But given anyone in the world known to the Tunisian organizations. The wording of the Nobel Committee awards the prize to the Quartet of the national dialogue from Tunisia, says: “For decisive contribution to the establishment of pluralistic democracy in Tunisia after the “Jasmine revolution” of 2011.“
“From Tunisia will not be able to make advertising successful use of the “Arab spring”
The Norwegians explained that the Quartet, which included four key civil society organizations: the Tunisian General trade Union, the Tunisian Confederation of industry, trade and Handicrafts, the Tunisian human rights League and the Tunisian chamber of advocates was established in 2013, when “the process of democratization is under threat of destruction as a result of political murders and the wave of social protests”. And the Quartet “paved the way for a peaceful dialogue between citizens, political parties and the authorities and helped to find a consensus solution to a wide range of issues, both political and religious.”
The decision of the Norwegians caused surprise in the West bookmakers bet on Merkel (she was nominated for the Minsk agreements on Ukraine) or Pope Francis. And in Russia many even regarded the award as a conscious move to support the Arab revolutions, demonstrating the value of the “Arab spring” that started with Tunisia in 2011, we started to say that the prize was awarded to the organizers of the “Jasmine revolution.” Of course, it is not – the deputies of the Norwegian Parliament (namely, they awarded the prize), though, and are ardent supporters of globalization through the promotion of democracy and liberalism all over the world (which led to the emergence in Norway of Breivik), yet not referring to the awarding of the initiators, and much more important and relevant now for globalizers thing. They wanted to emphasize the possibility of peaceful accession of the Islamic world to the global project, and therefore was awarded virtually all of Tunisia by selecting the established Quartet. His merit in the eyes of the West – organization of peaceful dialogue in a Muslim country in the way of her transition from “dictatorship” to democracy.
Democracy, of course, a Western, not Islamist. Because democracy happens in Iran, for example, politicians are fighting for votes, but the liberal West will never recognize the Islamic Republic is democratic, because it is built on a religious Foundation and totally rejects as the process of globalization and its ideals such as multiculturalism, tolerance and “global humanity without Nations and religions.”
But the “Arab spring” the West initially filed as the desire of the masses to attach their country to the high road of “Western-style democracy” – the struggle for the control of civil society over the authorities, for the rights of women and minorities, a multiparty system, freedom of speech and so on of the mandatory set of “color revolutions”.
“Spring” began in late December 2010 just in Tunisia, with riots and demonstrations, which resulted already in mid-January, President Ben Ali fled the country. Soon the excitement began to spread across the Arab world – Egypt, Bahrain, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Morocco.
Somewhere the “Arab spring” was crushed, as the Saudis in Bahrain, where some have led to reforms and peace, as in Morocco, somewhere to revolution and change of power in Egypt. But the most formidable in three cases: in Libya, Syria and Yemen to civil war. In Libya, the government was overthrown as a result of foreign intervention, the country almost disintegrated. Yemen has also plunged into civil war, during which one of the parties called on foreign troops. But the large-scale war for four years is in Syria – and it can be called even not having regional and global significance.
Against this background stands out Tunisia, which is now and was awarded the prize. The civil war, but there is dialogue and reform – that’s happiness. So you can if you want, as it tells the West himself, and the Arabs who are largely addressed to this award. However, if you look at Tunisia closely, it becomes clear that he will not be able to make advertising successful use of the “Arab spring”.
11-millionth Tunisia is the most westernized Arab country, and it has nothing to do with the “Arab spring.” To understand this, just look at how Tunisia’s attitude to women and alcohol, and this was the attitude not just of power but of the greater part of the society. Another important indicator of the Europeanization of Tunisia became the birth rate – by early Teens it was the lowest in the Arab world that testified how about quality of life and the perception of Western standards of “family.”
By the time of the overthrow of Ben Ali was only the second President in the history of independent Tunisia, his 23-year rule was preceded by a 30-year period of the government of Habib Bourguiba. Bourguiba became President in 1957, overthrowing the Bey, who managed to direct became independent from the French in Tunisia just a year. Most of the time of the Board of both presidents in the country was a one-party system. The country lived quietly – oil and gas, of course, less than in neighbouring Algeria and Libya, but a lot of foreign tourists. The standard of living grew, corruption and social inequality were not the cause for Arab standards. However, greatly resented the wife of Ben Ali – her family all bend under him. No complaints from the West to the Tunisian President was not and could not be – he was an ally and client, managing a quiet resort on the Mediterranean coast.
Blow up the situation, the growth of prices for bread – and the regime collapsed, having a short resistance.
Ben Ali said he is building a “prosperous, open and peaceful society based on justice and tolerance”, while a helluva lot of disgruntled Islamists or liberals were sometimes arrested, or more often went into exile. After the revolution, they all came back – and then the West was surprised to find that the authorities in Tunisia expect not only Pro-Western politicians from among the emigrants and dissidents, but also the Islamists. Returned from London the leader of the banned “Muslim brotherhood” Rashid Ghannouchi, and in the end, the Islamists won the first parliamentary elections with 40% of the vote.
However, by the time anyone in the world was no longer interesting Tunisia – the change of power in Egypt collapsed under intervention Libya, was engaged in a civil war in Syria. Tunisian Islamists tried to scare people in Tunisia and abroad, but it soon became clear that they are not going to take up arms and not enough like the Salafis who fought in neighbouring Libya. In addition, radical Islamists have gone to fight abroad – it is believed that in Syria is from 2 to 4 thousand Tunisians. It is difficult to assess what would happen if in the Tunisia started to operate, the armed underground – the army, the country is very small, little more than 30 thousand people.
Ghannouchi has compared his party “al-Nahda” party of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, but, unlike the Turkish counterparts, all power, the Islamists did not get the post of Parliament speaker, President and Prime Minister were divided between the three main parties. Although until the beginning of 2013 the government led by ally Ghannouchi, Hamadi Dzhebali, to become the dominant force and to control the apparatus of power, the Islamists failed. Secular parties provided them with strong resistance, by organising demonstrations of his supporters, especially because there was enough. And falling standard of living, including due to the decrease of tourist traffic from the West, and lack the old security, and the murder of politicians – all this gradually led to the decline in the popularity of the Islamists. In autumn 2013 the crisis and the struggle for power in the Tunisian elite has forced all factions to sit down at the negotiating table. Then came the current Nobel prize winner Quartet of the national dialogue, which included local unions, the business elite and human rights activists.
In fact, the elite was gradually able to agree on its transformation and peaceful coexistence in January 2014 adopted a new Constitution, “one of the most advanced in the world,” as he called it on the West, securing the rights of women, role of moderate Islam, decentralization. Came to power of a technocratic government, and at the end of 2014 held parliamentary and presidential elections. The head of state was the 88-year-old Badges es-sebsi, a former foreign Minister the times of Bourguiba, his party “Voice of Tunisia” won the parliamentary elections. The Islamists, in fact, were driven from power but have become part of the elite.
In fact, such a scenario was possible only in Tunisia, because local elites were swept away, and the Islamists turned out to be quite the system. For this, the Nobel Committee and awarded the Quartet, especially as the various Western funds all this year promoted Tunisia as a model of peaceful transition to democracy. But not too late Oslo to award? In the spring and summer of this year in Tunisia, there were two terrible and indicative of a terrorist attack: first, located next to the Parliament by the Bardo Museum was shot 17 foreign tourists and three Tunisian, and then 40 people died in the attack on the beach in port El Kantaoui, one of the most popular among foreigners resort. The attacks took responsibility, “Islamic state”, which is called the victims “members of the coalition against LIH.”
The Tunisian authorities have declared a war on terrorism, the President said: “These monstrous misfits does not scare us, we will fight them to the end and without mercy. Democracy will survive and win,” and it is clear that Tunisia will be able to avoid the fate of neighbouring Libya. But sooner or later, with the war in Syria will return local supporters of the Caliphate – and only then we can truly appreciate the ability of Tunisian companies to resist the radical Islamist challenge.
Given that it balances between moderate Islamists and moderate Westerners, maybe he would succeed, but just as it turns out, and of Turkey, which does not apply to the Arab world. Tunisians in this sense, like Turks, but anywhere else in the Arab world there is a similar situation, because there is such a strong and sustainable Europeanization. So the desire of the Nobel Committee to distribute their seemingly successful experience of implementation of Western values in the Arab world is understandable, but has no chance to response in the Arab world.
Especially by Tunisians is not very clear for what they had “Jasmine revolution” – even one of the founders of the Quartet, the Secretary-General of the Tunisian General labor Union hoosen Abbasi said: “We managed to overcome the difficulties associated with building a democratic society, but now we are fighting terrorism, which is the main problem of Tunisia today”. The fight against terror, of course, also worthy of a Nobel prize, but somehow, to the “Jasmine revolution”, problems of terrorism in Tunisia, in principle, did not exist.