The Ministry of Finance is ready to partially thaw pension savings in 2018. Citizens will again be able to decide how many deductions for old age, which, in 2014, the state takes itself to send to the insurance, and how much to the cumulative part of pension. But there is a condition. Unfreezing of pensions will take place, if the price of oil will reach $80. Now the price of a barrel exceeds $52. Optimists say that by the end of the year quotes catch up to $60. But not the fact. Black gold may fall below $40. In fact, and in another case the increase to $80 will last for years. So to make such statements, the Ministry of Finance may be as much as you want — without an economic motivation, they become political only verbal intervention.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
To start, let’s ask the question — what was the freezing of pension savings on which the government made in 2014. It was decided for several reasons. It is external factors — sanctions from the West, falling oil prices, and internal challenges — budget revenues lost weight, inflation grew.
To which came the decision? It’s simple — it was suggested to freeze the funded part of pensions. Almost it looked like this: the majority of Russian citizens who worked in the Pension Fund (or non-state funds, in which it is also possible to host) the “lay” of the cumulative part of the pension that accrued interest. In 2014 this practice ceased to exist.
In other words, the “frozen” pension meant a moratorium on its placement. In 2015 and 2016 pension savings could not be transferred to non-state pension funds where the interest on placement were often higher than those of the state. All coming from employers ‘ pension contributions were sent to the formation of the insurance part of the pension, not for the individual citizen, and for all retirees. That is, who had not previously redirect pension savings in private funds, has lost the ability to earn additional interest.
The government promised that in 2016 the old system back on the old rails. But it did not happen. In July the Deputy Minister Dmitry Peskov warned that the Pension Fund prepares a budget based on a three-year moratorium on contributions to the funded part of pension. The entire contribution rate will be transferred to a pension insurance and the cumulative part in 2017-2019 years to form will not. Such measures would help the budget to save 300-400 billion rubles a year.
Some experts believe that the freezing of the pension threatened by non-state pension funds. In the near future they will increase the number of investors who have reached retirement age. To make his payments, the NPF will be forced to withdraw funds invested in financial instruments, and therefore lose the investment income.
However, there is positive news. According to Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseyev, the government can partially defrost retirement savings. And, in 2018, that is, earlier in the year than previously thought.
However, the implementation of these promises may be delayed not even for a year, and for a longer period.
On the one hand, oil is now for two weeks, kept at above $50 (came to $53). According to the Director of the analytical Department of Alpari, Alexander Razuvaev, the barrel may reach $60 by year end. The same forecasts confirmed by the Minister of energy of Saudi Arabia Khalid al-falih.
However, this is the most optimistic scenario. The largest oil producers of the planet is unable to agree on production cuts, which increases the difference between demand and supply and prevent the growth of quotations. Under adverse conditions there is a risk of falling prices for “black gold” to $40 and below.
Then the possibility of unfreezing the pension savings of Russians will be postponed for many years.
The labour Ministry has proposed for 3 years to postpone the entry into force of the law on the accelerated growth of pensions to rural residents. Earlier it was supposed to take a law according to which this category of the elderly will have a rapid growth of the fixed part of pension. The adoption of such a law now means more spending budget which is in deficit. Abandoning it, the budget would save 55 billion. In the near future the government plans to change the system of pension savings and to raise the retirement age. The experience of previous years showed that none of the pension reform did not bring positive results, so future innovations can hardly expect a positive.
Pension reform. Chronicle of events