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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Deutsche Bank is getting rid of staff and unreliable ruble

Foreign banks operating in the Russian market, say goodbye to the ruble. They believe that the course “wooden” reached its maximum and, at least until the end of the year will not grow. On the contrary, our currency soon will fall sharply, and by January 2017 the dollar will not require 62-63 of the ruble, as now, more than 70 rubles. This is corroborated by the fact that since the beginning of this month in the Russian market has increased interest in the currency, the Central Bank is not always able to meet the demands of investors, primarily foreign ones, which need dollars. Foreigners do not stop to look for money in the Russian market. Western banks themselves do not have enough funds to support the state. So, Deutsche Bank declared reduction of 10 thousand employees working out of necessity saving.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Analysts of the largest Russian state banks have come to the conclusion that foreign funds operating in our market, use of the annual maxima of the ruble, to get rid of the Russian currency with the highest profit.

Indeed, the cost of the “wood” can be very high. If at the beginning of the year, the dollar was estimated at more than 83.5 ruble, now the “green” offer no more than 63 rubles. Moreover, the rate is below 70 rubles held in March, suggesting a stabilization of the Russian currency.

The main engine of growth in the value of the ruble is the price of oil. At the beginning of the year, they fell below $30 per barrel. Now committed to $50. There are suggestions that the quotations reach a lath in $60. Then the “wood” has all chances to strengthen to 55 rubles for “green”.

However, apparently, foreign investors don’t particularly believe it. Market players say that two of the three foreign investors acquired Russian currency at a price in 67-68 rubles per dollar. Now that the “wood” started to recover and increased to 62-63 rubles, these investors took profits and shifted to other moneys. Interest to the ruble show only domestic companies who have to pay wages in rubles.

Negatively on the ruble is influenced by other factors. In particular, in December expected rate hike by the Federal reserve, which will strengthen the dollar and hurt oil prices and, therefore, the ruble. Will play a role and the growing tensions between Russia and the West over the Syrian conflict.

This development confirms the fact that foreign investors operating in Russia, not only sell rubles, but increasing savings in dollars. There were rumors that the financial sector is experiencing a shortage of U.S. currency. According to the individual players, the Central Bank puts on sale a lot less foreign currency than asking foreign banks.

As the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev, “that foreigners get rid of rubles, seems to be true. “Wood” this year has overcome its maximum and its rate began to decline. In addition to the fed rate hike in its value can affect and negative pressure on the price of oil by OPEC and other major oil producer who seem to is not going to reduce production of “black gold”. All this will lead to the fact that the dollar by the end of December tipped the scales for 70 rubles.”

For the Russians, who continue to believe the ruble, it will be extremely unpleasant moment. However, the Europeans, apparently, also experience some inconvenience. So, Deutsche Bank is exploring the possibility of reducing costs and does not rule out reductions about 10 thousand workplaces. That’s the number of employees, according to Finance Director Deutsche Bank Markus Schenk, you have to be fired to reduce costs in the long term.

All this indirectly suggests that faith in the dollar, not oil, continues to grow. So the prospects of the Russian currency seem bad. And 70-75 rubles per dollar, it may be one of the best options.


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